Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Dynamic Effects Of Agricultural Subsidies In The United States, Harry De Gorter, Eric O'N. Fisher

Economics

This article analyzes the dynamic effects of the farm subsidies in the United States. The subsidies a farmer receives are based upon historical plantings, also called base acreage. It is sometimes optimal for a farmer temporarily not to participate in a program in order to increase future subsidies. The farmer's optimal policy is the solution to a deterministic dynamic program. Farmers with low base acreage opt out of these programs, whereas those with high base acreage participate in them. The article examines aggregate data involving corn, cotton, rice, and wheat during 1987. It shows that these programs increase the output …

Review Of Constitutional Environments And Economic Growth By Gerald W. Scully, Michael L. Marlow

Economics

No Abstract

Second Order Approximation In The Partially Linear Regression Model, Oliver B. Linton

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We examine the second order properties of various quantities of interest in the partially linear regression model. We obtain a stochastic expansion with remainder o P ( n -2µ ), where µ < 1/2, for the standardized semiparametric least squares estimator, a standard error estimator, and a studentized statistic. We use the second order expansions to correct the standard error estimates for second order effects, and to define a method of bandwidth choice. A Monte Carlo experiment provides favorable evidence on our method of bandwidth choice.

Ua68/2 Intercambio Internacional, Vol. Xii, No. 1, Wku Latin American Studies

WKU Archives Records

Newsletter created by WKU Latin American Studies program regarding science, politics and economic advances in Latin America as well as cooperative projects between WKU and universities across Latin America. The newsletter is written in both English and Spanish.

Quasi-Flag Of Convenience Shipping: The Wave Of The Future, Rex S. Toh, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many articles and books have been written to extol the advantages and virtues of flags of convenience (FOC) shipping, argue its necessi ty, and defend the practice. However, from the earliest days there has been opposition to FOC shipping, and lately the disenchantment over this questionable form of open registry has led to the potentially rapid growth of what can be termed as quasi-FOC arrangements. This article will first briefly trace the trend from FOCs to quasi-FOCs, outline the legal framework for regulating international shipping, then discuss the problems, opposition, and legal challenges to open registries. Finally, it will trace …

Long-Term Economic Performance Of Alternative, Conventional, And Reduced Tillage Farming Systems In East-Central And Northeast South Dakota; Grain Prices: Seasonal High May Be Past, Thomas L. Dobbs, Lon D. Henning, Richard Shane

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Restoring America's Economic Growth And International Competitiveness, Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Conference held at Blithewood, November 12-13, 1993.

Blueprint For Financial Reform, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

No abstract provided.

Robust Nonstationary Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to nonstationary time series regression and inference. Fully modified extensions of traditional robust statistical procedures are developed which allow for endogeneities in the nonstationary regressors and serial dependence in the shocks that drive the regressors and the errors that appear in the equation being estimated. The suggested estimators involve semiparametric corrections to accommodate these possibilities and they belong to the same family as the fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) estimator of Phillips and Hansen (1990). Specific attention is given to fully modified least absolute deviation (FM-LAD) estimation and fully modified M (FM-M)-estimation. The …

Indirect Transfers In Trade Among Former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, Patterns, And Policy Responses In The Post-Soviet Period, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Reports on indirect transfers in trade among the former Soviet Union Republics. The Former Soviet Union (FSU) was composed of 15 republics which were very unevenly endowed with human, physical and natural resources. To contain regional imbalances within the Union and to integrate all republics into a tight and centrally commanded division of labour, the central government operated a scheme of vertical fiscal redistribution between the Union budget and the republican budgets. Through this system poorer republics became net receivers of direct transfers and richer republics became net donors. This scheme, which collapsed with the dissolution of the Union in …

Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the G-7 countries in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The error-correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the G-7 countries. Assuming market participants are risk averse, these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities, change prices, or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate …

Are Major League Baseball Players Compensated For The Ability To Attract Fans?, Mark Tudor

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

A question asked by many baseball fans during the past two decades has been, “Do baseball players really earn multimillion dollars salaries by simply playing a game?” Previous studies have attempted to show that they go generate enough revenue for a given club to justify these exorbitant earnings. In fact, these studies show that, until recently, baseball players have been exploited by owners who have been reaping major profits at the expense of the players.

Most studies utilize fan attendance to generate revenue figures in their respective regression equations. The intent in this paper is to determine if baseball players …

Earnings Inequality In Germany, Katharine G. Abraham, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent studies have documented the growth of earnings inequality in the United States during the 1980s. In contrast to these studies' findings, our analysis of micro data for the former West Germany yields virtually no evidence of growth in earnings inequality over the same period. Between 1978 and 1988, a reduction in the dispersion of earnings among workers in the bottom half of the earnings distribution led to a narrowing of the overall dispersion of earnings in Germany. Earnings differentials across education and age groups remained roughly stable, and there was no general widening of earnings differentials within either education …

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

Restoring Economic Growth, Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Conference held at the National Press Club, Washington, DC.

Restoring Economic Growth: America's Challenges Ahead

Deregulation And Trade Liberalization: The Indonesia Reform Program, Scott Fausti, Rony Bishry

Economics Staff Paper Series

Beginning in the early 1980s, Indonesia embarked on the most comprehensive trade liberalization program in its history. The long-term goal of the reform program is to replace Indonesia's industrial development strategy of import substitution industrialization with one of export oriented industrial growth. The issues to be discussed in this paper are: 1) the historical context from which the current liberalization program evolved, 2) the recent reform measures implemented by the Indonesian government, 3) the pattern of liberalization with respect to the sequencing and speed of reforms, and 4) the successes and failures of the new trade regime.

Nafta And Its Impact On Northern Plains Agriculture; Test Weight Discounts And On-Farm Drying Decisions, John Sondey, Richard Shane

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Dairy Outlook; Hog Comments, Donald Peterson, Gene Murra

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, And The Carter Presidency, Ann Mari May

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The Carter years have often been characterized as a period of profound economic malaise brought on by weak and misguided leadership. Indeed, not since Herbert Hoover left office in 1933 has a president faced such pervasive allegations of economic mismanagement. However, examination of broad indicators of economic conditions demonstrates that the economy performed quite well during the Carter years. Moreover, fiscal policy during the Carter Administration was relatively stable and less volatile than fiscal policy during other postwar presidential periods and appropriate in its countercyclical thrust. In contrast, monetary policy was highly erratic compared to monetary policy during other presidential …

The Natural Rate As New Classical Macroeconomics, James Tobin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Friedman identified his “natural rate” as Walrasian equilibrium. Keynes’s “full employment” is also classical equilibrium: labor markets are clearing at existing real wages. Why is equilibrium unemployment not zero? Keynes and Friedman cite, but do not explain, “frictional” unemployment. They differ on what explains cycles. Friedman and Lucas answer: misperceptions of inflation. Markets clear at wrong prices and quantities. Today New Classicals stress variations in the natural rate itself. In Keynesian cycles markets don’t clear. Excess supplies or demands trigger Phillips-curve movements of wages and prices. Unemployment and vacancies coexist in varying proportions because inter-sectoral shocks always occur. Adjustment dynamics, …

Macroeconomic Shocks In An Aggregative Disequilibrium Model, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper, I first show how aggregation over submarkets that exhibit varying degrees of disequilibrium can provide a foundation to the classic “short-side” disequilibrium econometric model of Fair and Jaffee [11]. I then introduce explicit randomness in the aggregative model as arising from economy-wide demand and supply shocks, which are allowed to be serially correlated. I develop suitable simulation estimation methods to circumvent hitherto intractable computational problems resulting from serial correlation in the unobservables in disequilibrium analysis. I show that the introduction of macroeconomic shocks has fundamentally different implications compared to the traditional approach that arbitrarily appends an additive …

Suggested Revisions To The Polish Employment Law, Christopher J. O'Leary

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Value Line Enigma Extended - An Examination Of The Performance Of Option Recommendations, Jack B. Broughton, Don M. Chance

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We extend the research on the Value Line Enigma by examining the performance of call recommendations in Value Line Options. Galai's hedge decomposition procedure identifies the components of the calls' returns. Abnormal call returns were most pronounced immediately following the purchase, which is consistent with studies of Value Line's stock rankings. The largest and most significant abnormal performance was by calls assigned the highest rank written on stocks judged by Value Line to be correctly priced. Abnormal call return performance by joint call and stock ranks was consistent with the hypothesis that Value Line identifies underpriced call options.

Could Distance Be A Proxy For Severity-Of-Illness? A Comparison Of Hospital Costs In Distant And Local Patients., H G. Welch, E B. Larson, W P. Welch

Dartmouth Scholarship

We test the hypothesis that hospital costs, after adjusting for DRG mix, are higher in distant patients than in local patients. Data were obtained from the Washington State Commission Hospital Abstract Reporting System (CHARS) and included all patients discharged from 15 metropolitan hospitals in the state of Washington during fiscal year 1987 (N = 181,072).

Audit Selection And Income Tax Underreporting In The Tax Compliance Game, James Alm, Roy W. Bahl, Matthew N. Murray

ECON Publications

This paper uses a game-theoretic model of the tax compliance game to estimate a model of audit selection and income tax underreporting in Jamaica. The empirical analysis make use of audited tax returns for individual taxpayers, and a random sample of tax returns for the population from which the audited returns are selected. The estimation results strongly indicate a nonrandom audit strategy, and thus provide support for the game-theoretic approach. The results also indicate that the probability of underreporting and the level of underreporting are positively related to the marginal tax rate and to income, and negatively related to marginal …

Suggested Revisions To The Polish Social Welfare Law, Christopher J. O'Leary, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research

Reports

No abstract provided.

Review Of Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, And Forecasting By Victor Zarnowitz, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Auctions For Transferable Objects: Theory And Evidence From The Vehicle Quota System In Singapore, David K. C. Lee, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies the hypothesis that auctions with resale markets result in higher prices. The vehicle quota system introduced in Singapore in May 1990 provides the setting. The Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) necessary to purchase new cars were initially transferable for all quota categories. After October 1991, COEs for four major categories became non-transferable. Our results indicate that while the conversion to non-transferability eliminated speculation, it has also intensified competition among car distributors. Auctions for non-transferable COEs in fact led to higher COE prices in three of the four categories.

The Essential Characteristics Of Post-Keynesian Economics, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Given here, in addition to the final article, are:

Proofs of the article: Notes; Glossary; an outline; an outline also showing post-it notes; a 1992 version; a version from August 1990 with post-it notes and corrections; the same without the post-it notes, and a l version from 1990 without edits.

Seasonality In Corn And Soybean Prices Received By South Dakota Farmers; Grain: Sell Or Store, Bashir A. Qasmi, Richard Shane

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.