Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 23 of 23
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
A Model Of Migration, Thomas Quint, Martin Shubik
A Model Of Migration, Thomas Quint, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A simple game-theoretic model of migration is proposed, in which the players are animals, the strategies are territories in a landscape to which they may migrate, and the payoffs for each animal are determined by its ultimate location and the number of other animals there. If the payoff to an animal is a decreasing function of the number of other animals sharing its territory, we show the resultant game has a pure strategy Nash equilibrium (PSNE). Furthermore, this PSNE is generated via “natural” myopic behavior on the part of the animals. Finally, we compare this type of game with congestion …
On The Number Of Nash Equilibria In A Bimatrix Game, Thomas Quint, Martin Shubik
On The Number Of Nash Equilibria In A Bimatrix Game, Thomas Quint, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show that if y is an odd integer between 1 and 2 n - 1, there is an n × n bimatrix game with exactly y Nash equilibria (NE). We conjecture that this 2 n - 1 is a tight upper for n < 3, and provide bounds on the number of NEs in m × n nondegenerate games when min( m,n ) < 4.
The Topological Structure Of Maximal Lattice Free Convex Bodies: The General Case, Imre Bárány, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
The Topological Structure Of Maximal Lattice Free Convex Bodies: The General Case, Imre Bárány, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Given a generic m x n matrix A , the simplicial complex K ( A ) is defined to be the collection of simplices representing maximal lattice point free convex bodies of the form { x : Ax < b }. The main result of this paper is that the topological space associated with K ( A ) is homeomorphic with R m -1.
Error Bands For Impulse Responses, Christopher A. Sims, Tao Zha
Error Bands For Impulse Responses, Christopher A. Sims, Tao Zha
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We examine the theory and behavior in practice of Bayesian and bootstrap methods for generating error bands on impulse responses in dynamic linear models. The Bayesian intervals have a firmer theoretical foundation in small samples, are easier to compute, and are about as good in small samples by classical criteria as are the best bootstrap intervals. Bootstrap intervals based directly on the simulated small-sample distribution of an estimator, without bias correction, perform very badly. We show that a method that has been used to extend to the overidentified case standard algorithms for Bayesian intervals in reduced form models is incorrect, …
Edgeworth Approximation For Minpin Estimators In Semiparametric Regression Models, Oliver B. Linton
Edgeworth Approximation For Minpin Estimators In Semiparametric Regression Models, Oliver B. Linton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We examine the higher order asymptotic properties of semiparametric regression estimators that were obtained by the general MINPIN method described in Andrews (1989). We derive an order n –1 stochastic expansion and give a theorem justifying order n – 1 distributional approximation of the Edgeworth type.
The Effect Of Economic Events On Votes For President: 1992 Update, Ray C. Fair
The Effect Of Economic Events On Votes For President: 1992 Update, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.
Fully Modified Iv, Give And Gmm Estimation With Possibly Non-Stationary Regressions And Instruments, Yuichi Kitamura, Peter C.B. Phillips
Fully Modified Iv, Give And Gmm Estimation With Possibly Non-Stationary Regressions And Instruments, Yuichi Kitamura, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a general theory of instrumental variables (IV) estimation that allows for both I(1) and I(0) regressors and instruments. The estimation techniques involve an extension of the fully modified (FM) regression procedure that was introduced in earlier work by Phillips-Hansen (1990). FM versions of the generalized instrumental variable estimation (GIVE) method and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator are developed. In models with both stationary and nonstationary components, the FM-GIVE and FM-GMM techniques provide efficiency gains over FM-IV in the estimation of the stationary components of a model that has both stationary and nonstationary regressors. The paper …
Do Real Output And Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History Of Lighting Suggests Not, William D. Nordhaus
Do Real Output And Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History Of Lighting Suggests Not, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Historical studies of the growth in real wages and output depend upon the accurate measure of the price trends of goods and services. Over long periods of time, the consumption bundle has changed profoundly, and most of today’s consumption includes items that were not produced, and in some cases not even conceived, at the beginning of the nineteenth century. This paper tackles the issue of the quantitative significance of the qualitative change in consumption by choosing a single service — lighting — for which the service characteristic — illumination — is invariant. We estimate changes in lighting efficiency and construct …
Robust Tests Of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency With Empirical Evidence From The 1920’S, Peter C.B. Phillips, James W. Mcfarland, Patrick C. Mcmahon
Robust Tests Of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency With Empirical Evidence From The 1920’S, Peter C.B. Phillips, James W. Mcfarland, Patrick C. Mcmahon
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails, and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide. In addition, our methods allow for stochastic trend nonstationarity and general forms of serial dependence. The methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920’s, which marked the first …
Model Determination And Macroeconomic Activity, Peter C.B. Phillips
Model Determination And Macroeconomic Activity, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The subject of this paper is modelling, estimation, inference and prediction for economic time series. Bayesian and classical approaches are considered. The paper has three main parts. The first is concerned with Bayesian model determination, forecast evaluation and the construction of evolving sequences of models that can adapt in dimension and form (including the way in which any nonstationarity in the data is modelled) as new characteristics in the data become evident. This part of the paper continues some recent work on Bayesian asymptotics by the author and Werner Ploberger, develops embedding techniques for vector martingales that justify the role …
Testing For Serial Correlation Against An Arma(1,1) Process, Donald W.K. Andrews, Werner Ploberger
Testing For Serial Correlation Against An Arma(1,1) Process, Donald W.K. Andrews, Werner Ploberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is concerned with tests for serial correlation in time series and in the errors of regression models. In particular, the nonstandard problem of testing for white noise against ARMA(1,1) alternatives is considered. Sup Lagrange multiplier (LM) and exponential average LM tests are introduced and are shown to be asymptotically admissible for ARMA(1,1) alternatives. In addition, they are shown to be consistent against all (weakly stationary strong mixing) non-white noise alternatives. Simulation results compare the tests to several tests in the literature. These results show that the Exp-LM infinity test has very good all-around power.
Nonstationary Time Series And Cointegration: Recent Books And Themes For The Future, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonstationary Time Series And Cointegration: Recent Books And Themes For The Future, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Recent developments in nonstationary time series and cointegration are discussed and three new books in the area are reviewed. Some perspectives concerning the scope of current interest in the field are provided, and some novel themes for future research are outlined.
Local Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation: Using Parametric Information Nonparametrically, Pedro Gozalo, Oliver B. Linton
Local Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation: Using Parametric Information Nonparametrically, Pedro Gozalo, Oliver B. Linton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We introduce a new kernel smoother for nonparametric regression that uses prior information on regression shape in the form of a parametric model. In effect, we nonparametrically encompass the parametric model. We derive pointwise and uniform consistency and the asymptotic distribution of our procedure. It has superior performance to the usual kernel estimators at or near the parametric model. It is particularly well motivated for binary data using the probit or logit parametric model as a base. We include an application to the Horowitz (1993) transport choice dataset.
Insurance Market Games: Scale Effects And Public Policy, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Insurance Market Games: Scale Effects And Public Policy, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose a game-theoretic model to study various effects of scale in an insurance market. After reviewing a simple static model, we present a one-period game in which both the buyers and sellers of insurance make strategic bids, and show that, under reasonably broad conditions, market equilibrium exists. For a special case, we then consider how both the price and quantity of insurance, as well as other quantities of interest to public policy decision makers, are affected by the number of insurance firms, the number of customers, and the total amount of capital provided by investors.
Home Equity Insurance, Robert J. Shiller, Allan N. Weiss
Home Equity Insurance, Robert J. Shiller, Allan N. Weiss
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Home equity insurance policies, policies insuring homeowners against declines in the price of their homes, would bear some resemblance both to ordinary insurance and to financial hedging vehicles. A menu of choices for the design of such policies is presented here, and conceptual issues are discussed. Choices include pass-through futures and options, in which the insurance company in effect serves as a retailer to homeowners of short positions in real estate futures markets or of put options on real estate. Another choice is a life-event-triggered insurance policy, in which the homeowner pays regular fixed insurance premia and is entitled to …
Health Care Reform As Seen By A General Economist, James Tobin
Health Care Reform As Seen By A General Economist, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Universal coverage, it is argued, implies universally required insurance, to avoid adverse selection into last-resort care implicitly guaranteed. It also entails community rating, such that insurers cannot choose among risks. Individual mandate makes more sense than employer mandate. A system is proposed in which individual can choose among a government Medicare-like plan and private insurance offering equivalent services. Means-tested assistance would help individuals pay premiums.
Financing Trade And The Price Level: Problems With The Description Of Markets, Expectations, Money And Credit, Martin Shubik
Financing Trade And The Price Level: Problems With The Description Of Markets, Expectations, Money And Credit, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?, Ray C. Fair
Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper estimates the amount by which the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing real output has declined due to the increased size of the federal government debt.
Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency And The Redundancy Or Usefulness Of Public Debt, Willem H. Buiter, Kenneth M. Kletzer
Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency And The Redundancy Or Usefulness Of Public Debt, Willem H. Buiter, Kenneth M. Kletzer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study how the government’s ability to borrow depends on its capacity to tax. Using a two-period OLG growth model, we establish the following. When lump-sum taxes are unrestricted, Ponzi finance is possible, regardless of whether the economy is dynamically inefficient and regardless of the relationship between the interest rate and the growth rate. Ponzi finance, and government debt generally, is unessential or redundant: it does not enlarge the set of allocations that can be supported as competitive equilibria. When lump-sum taxes are restricted, Ponzi finance (public debt) may be essential . Central to the paper is our characterization of …
Applied Nonparametric Methods, Wolfgang Härdle, Oliver B. Linton
Applied Nonparametric Methods, Wolfgang Härdle, Oliver B. Linton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We review different approaches to nonparametric density and regression estimation. Kernel estimators are motivated from local averaging and solving ill-posed problems. Kernel estimators are compared to k -NN estimators, orthogonal series and splines. Pointwise and uniform confidence bands are described, and the choice of smoothing parameter is discussed. Finally, the method is applied to nonparametric prediction of time series and to semiparametric estimation.
Marching To Different Drummers: Coordination And Independence In Monetary And Fiscal Policies, William D. Nordhaus
Marching To Different Drummers: Coordination And Independence In Monetary And Fiscal Policies, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Most countries have recently experienced high fiscal deficits and real interest rates that depressed national saving and slowed economic growth. This study analyzes the reasons that underlie the skewed fiscal-monetary mix. The first section develops a game-theoretic model of fiscal and monetary coordination and shows that the macroeconomic outcomes depend upon the degree of coordination or independence. The second section applies this approach to the Clinton package by using three macroeconomic models to estimate the likely macroeconomic impacts of different degrees of coordination. The paper concludes that an uncoordinated policy may lead to substantial loss of output that will not …
A Limit Theorem For A Smooth Class Of Semiparametric Estimators, Ariel Pakes, Steven Olley
A Limit Theorem For A Smooth Class Of Semiparametric Estimators, Ariel Pakes, Steven Olley
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider an econometric model based on a set of moment conditions which are indexed by both a finite dimensional parameter vector of interest, θ, and an infinite dimensional parameter, h , which in turn depends upon both θ and another infinite dimensional parameter, τ. The model assumes that the moment conditions equal zero at the true value of all unknown parameters. Estimators of θ are obtained by forming nonparametric estimates of h and τ, substituting them into the sample analog of the moment conditions, and choosing that value of θ that makes the sample moments as “close as possible” …
The Allocation Of Resources In The Presence Of Indivisibilities, Herbert E. Scarf
The Allocation Of Resources In The Presence Of Indivisibilities, Herbert E. Scarf
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The pricing tests for optimality in a convex programming problem are not available when the production possibility set displays economies of scale. The paper argues that indivisibilities in production are one of the major causes of such economies. The constrained optimization problems arising in the presence of indivisibilities are integer programs, and it is proposed that the unique, minimal quantity tests for such problems may shed some light on the internal organization of a large firm.