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Predicting Recessions In Major Texas Metropolitan Economies Using Yield Spreads And Other Economic Indicators, Aaron Dodson Nazarian

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The yield spread has been found to serve as a valuable economic forecasting tool. This research employs dynamic autoregressive probit downturn models using the United States yield spread and other regional and macroeconomic variables. This study then inspects the predictive power of the United States yield spread on the five largest urban economies in Texas, the four largest metropolitan areas along the Texas-Mexico border, as well as the Texas state economy. The other regional and macroeconomic variables are included in model specifications based on characteristics of the economies being analyzed. Results indicate that a narrowing of the United States Yield …