Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Inflationary Dynamics In Guatemala, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Miguel Martinez, Wm. Doyle Smith, Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Short-run price dynamics for Guatemala are analyzed using a linear transfer function methodology. This approach has previously been employed for other national economies such as the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and Nigeria. The data for this study range from 1960 to 2010. Inflation is measured using the consumer price index. Explanatory variables include the monetary base, real output, interest rates, and the exchange rate. All of the estimated coefficients exhibit the arithmetic signs hypothesized by the theoretical model. Almost all of the parameter estimates satisfy the 5-percent significance criterion and all exhibit economically plausible magnitudes. Estimation results indicate that …

Crecimiento Esperado De Las Ocupaciones En Los Condados De El Paso, Texas Y Doña Ana, Nuevo México, Manuel L. Reyes Loya, Jesus Mendoza, Hunt Institute For Global Competitiveness

Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Borderplex Economic Outlook To 2017, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Expected Occupation Growth In El Paso And Doña Ana Counties, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Jesus Mendoza, Hunt Institute For Global Competitiveness

Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Downtown Parking Meter Demand In El Paso, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., E. Pallarez, Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Prior research establishes that the price of parking in the city centre often impacts the decision to travel downtown and the mode of transportation utilized. Other factors that influence the decision to drive and park downtown have received less attention. This study uses time series data to analyse the demand for metered parking spaces in El Paso, Texas, USA. In addition to meter rates, the determinants of demand include personal income, gasoline prices, and the price of a substitute good, parking garage spaces. Because international bridges connect downtown El Paso to neighbouring Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, the impacts of trans-boundary …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Predicting Recessions Using The Yield Spread: The Mexican Northern Border Case, Laura Mariel Saenz

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Business cycle analysis is a difficult endeavor. Policymakers are justifiably concerned over recessionary prospects for their respective economies. Being able to predict an incoming recession allows implementing measures to ameliorate the effects of downturns. The yield spread has been extensively used to analyze business cycles in high income economies. The probit model, the most widely utilized model for this type of analysis, enables estimation of the probability (between 0 and 1) that a recession will occur. This study evaluates the predictive power of the Mexico yield spread, the United States yield spread and the real exchange index to anticipate the …

Drug Violence, The Peso, And Northern Border Retail Activity In Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Exchange rate fluctuations and international business cycles may acutely affect retail sales in border regions where residents have the option of shopping in the neighboring country. This study examines the determinants of retail sales in six cities located along Mexico’s northern border. Retail activity in these cities is found to increase in tandem with real depreciations of the peso, lower unemployment rates in neighboring US counties, and increased border crossings. Taken together, these results suggest that cross-border shopping contributes to retail activity in the northern border region of Mexico. The opportunities for cross-border shopping may also condition the impact of …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

The Nigerian Economy And The Dutch Disease., Kenechukwu Daryl Nweke

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Dutch Disease explains the relationship between exploitation of natural resources and the decline in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The dependent variable of the model shows the contraction of either the manufacturing or agricultural sector. The theory asserts that increase in revenues from natural resources will de-industrialize a nationâ??s economy by appreciating the real exchange rate, and exports on the booming commodity, which in turn makes the tradable sector less competitive.

The government of Nigeria has neglected the agriculture sector, causing the sector to be less competitive in the trade market. As a result, when economic activities in Nigeria increase …

Forecasting Water Demand In Phoenix, Juan Pedro Cardenas

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Water utility planning efforts are supported by short-term water demand forecasts. This study applies a Linear Transfer Function (LTF) approach in order to model and forecast water demand for single-family residential, multi-family residential, and nonresidential customer categories in Phoenix, Arizona. Out-of-sample simulations of water demand, with a monthly frequency, are generated for periods when actual demand is known. Descriptive measures and two formal tests are utilized to analyze the accuracy of LTF projections against two random walk benchmarks. The price elasticities for the single-family residential, multi-family residential, and nonresidential usage categories are -0.36, -0.31, and -0.75, respectively. The descriptive accuracy …

Recession Prediction For Us Border Economies. Can Probit Models Predict Recessions At An Msa Level Including Bi-National Variables?, Elias Daniel Saenz

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Economic recession prediction has received substantial attention in recent years. The topic is important. Unemployment, business bankruptcies, and personal bankruptcies all increase during business cycles downturns.

Identifying appropriate indicators for recessions is a difficult task. Other variables have been used in prior studies. These variables have included the term structure of the yield curve (Fama 1984; Mishkin 1988a) and the difference between the yields of long-run treasury bonds and short run treasury bills (yield curve) (Estrella and Mishkin 1996; Dueker 1997; Kauppi and Saikkonen 2008; Nyberg 2010).

Estrella and Mishkin (1998) compare the effectiveness of different economic variables that are …

At The Intersection Of Deferred Action For Childhood Arrivals, The Migration Trust Network And Labor, Mario Javier Chavez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This study unpacks the intersection of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, the Migration Trust Network and Labor. I use 9 in-depth qualitative interviews to address how such policies are affecting the labor acquisition and labor outcomes of DACA recipients. The Migrant trust network remained important for DACA recipients, although in a more indirect and macro-level way than described in Flores-Yeffal (2013). In particular, DACA recipients relied on the collective efficacy embedded within the community to facilitate their job search. Additional, migrant trust networks function differently according to the DACA recipients' level of education, but to fully benefit from the advantages …

The New Dynamics Of El Paso's Post Industrial Development: An Analysis Of The El Paso Chihuahua's Ballpark Controversy, Alan Matthew Serna

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This Thesis has sought to highlight a controversial event that occurred in El Paso, Texas when a wealthy group of local business interests, entered into a public/ private agreement with the City of El Paso to bring Triple-A baseball to the city. In doing so, the partnership drew large amounts opposition to their plan, when it was revealed that the city hall building would be demolished to make way for a new stadium, and that the issue would not be put to a vote. After analyzing all of the behaviors utilized by both opponents and proponents of the ballpark during …

Waiting For The Confidence Fairy: An Analysis Of European Sovereign Bond Spreads Before And After The Financial Crisis, David Uresti

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The 2008 Financial Crisis that began in the United States caused widespread panic throughout the financial sector which resulted in the collapse of some companies and large losses for others. The availability of credit declined even as investor confidence continued to deteriorate. The European periphery concluded that the Financial Crisis would be relegated to the American economy. However, in 2009 Greece suffered a credit downgrade that signaled that the financial shock entered European shores. Shortly thereafter Spain suffered a credit downgrade followed by Italy in 2010. Suddenly the threat of default by a number of European countries became very real. …

Short-Term Forecasting Analysis Of Municipal Water Demand In El Paso, Texas, Alejandro Ceballos

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Short-term water demand forecasts inform decisions regarding budgeting, rate design, water supply system operations, and effective implementation of conservation policies. This study develops a Linear Transfer Function (LTF) forecasting model for El Paso, Texas, a growing city located in the desert Southwest region of the United States. The model is used to generate monthly-frequency out-of-sample simulations of water demand for periods when actual demand is known. To measure the accuracy of the LTF projections against viable alternatives, a set of benchmark forecasts is also developed. Both descriptive accuracy metrics and formal statistical tests are used to analyze predictive performance. The …