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- Economic growth (8)
- Nigeria (8)
- Nigeria. (5)
- Financing (4)
- Volatility (4)
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- Economy (3)
- Exchange Rate (3)
- Inflation (3)
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- Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) (2)
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- Beta-t-GARCH (1)
Articles 1 - 30 of 53
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa
Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data. Generally, we found empirical support for an inverted U-shape relationship between public debt types and economic growth. For total public debt as percentage of GDP, model results identified a threshold level of 73.70 per cent, while the estimated inflexion points for external and domestic debts were 49.4 and 30.9 per cent, respectively. The implication of this finding is that debt accumulation in excess of the estimated threshold levels could hurt economic growth. A retrospective examination of the country’s …
On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu
On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In this study, we developed an inference procedure for the neural network using the bootstrap approach, and applied it to the market efficiency of the Nigerian exchange rate. Data used are exchange rate values from 2001 to 2015. We conducted a test on the market efficiency hypothesis, including test for relevance of individual and joint network inputs using method of partial derivative. The network architecture used is the multilayer perceptron. A valid statistical inference based on the estimated Statistical Neural Network was conducted using a well-known statistical resampling technique. Test of hypothesis that input or groups of inputs are relevant …
Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi
Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), Exponential GAS (EGAS) and Asymmetric Exponential GAS (AEGAS) are new classes of volatility models that simultaneously account for jumps and asymmetry. Using these models, we estimate the dynamic pattern of the Nigeria All Share Index (ASI) from January 3, 2006 to July 22, 2014. Parameter estimates of the models were obtained using the Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach, and in-sample conditional volatility forecasts from each of the models were evaluated using the minimum loss function approach. Among the classical volatility models, the initial results detected IGARCH-t as the best model for predicting volatility in the …
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …
A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue
A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in states classified as rising (positive) (𝑅𝑘), falling (negative) state (𝑅𝑚) or stable (zero) state (𝑅𝑙). Related goodness-of-fit tests show that the Markov model fits the data adequately with an error rate of approximately 0.1. The maximum expected lengths of successively being in either positive or negative regime is 4 days, while that of …
Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar
Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …
Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe
Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous variables in modelling volatility is considered using both the GARCH (1,1) and its asymmetric variants. Three of the four returns series showed heteroscedasticity. The results of the fitted models indicate that the majority of the parameters are significant and that volatility is quite persistent. Furthermore, the results of the asymmetric model indicate different impacts for both negative and …
Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examined the application of nonlinear Smooth Transition-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ST-GARCH) model of Hagerud on prices of banks’ shares in Nigeria. The methodology is informed by the failure of the conventional GARCH model to capture the asymmetric properties of the banks’ daily share prices. The asymmetry and non-linearity in the model dynamics make it useful for generating nonlinear conditional variance series. From the empirical analysis, we obtained the conditional volatility of each bank’s share price return. The highest volatility persistence was observed in Bank 6, while Bank 12 had the least volatility. Evidently, about 25% of the investigated …
The Banking System, Manufacturing Sector And Sustainable Economic Development., Risikat S. Oladoyin Dauda
The Banking System, Manufacturing Sector And Sustainable Economic Development., Risikat S. Oladoyin Dauda
Bullion
The paper is structured into five sections. Section one presents the introduction, while section two presents conceptual and theoretical issues. Section three captures issues in Nigeria's manufacturing sector, Section four presents a brief overview on the performance and financial intermediation roles of Nigeria's banking industry vis-a-vis the manufacturing sector, Section five and six contains the challenges and prospect of promoting banking system intermediary services in the manufacturing sector for sustainable development and concludes the paper respectively.
Financing Agriculture For Sustainable Economic Development, Grace Ofure Evbuomwan
Financing Agriculture For Sustainable Economic Development, Grace Ofure Evbuomwan
Bullion
Nigeria's agriculture is diverse. presenting various opportunities. lt includes four sub-sectors, namely; crop, livestock, fishery and forestry. The crop sub-sector accounts for about 90.0 per cent of agricultural production in Nigeria, followed by the livestock sub-sector which contributes about 7.0 per cent. Fishing activities contribute about 2.0 per cent and forestry activities account for about 1.0 per cent. However, Nigeria remains a food-deficit country blessed as it is with abundant agro-ecological resources and diversity. As reported by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the number of people undernourished has been on the increase, from 8.7 per …
Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan
Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan
Bullion
lt is important to note that no economy can grow and improve the living standard of its population without a vibrant real sector. Consequently, the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes in the real sector to stimulate flow of finance and boost productivity and employment generation.
Overview Of Non-Oil Sector In Nigeria., Uwatt B. Uwatt
Overview Of Non-Oil Sector In Nigeria., Uwatt B. Uwatt
Bullion
This paper is to enhance the understanding of the non-oil sector in Nigeria, The underlying need is the emphasis on why the sector should be embraced as the new economic bride, not only by the government, but by oil and sundry, to fast-track economic recovery and enhance sustainable growth.
Technology Innovations And The Financial Services Industry., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi
Technology Innovations And The Financial Services Industry., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi
Bullion
This article explores the future of the financial services industry in the context of new technologies. Technological innovations were reviewed and likely implications for the industry were highlighted. The article suggests that a symbiotic relationship among new and incumbent financial services providers will benefit the industry. Since technology is re-defining the financial services industry and the global financial system as undergone transformation in the last couple of decades.
Promoting Non-Oil Sector Financing In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media., Ugochukwu A. Okoroafor
Promoting Non-Oil Sector Financing In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media., Ugochukwu A. Okoroafor
Bullion
ln the case of Nigeria, the dominance of earnings from crude oil as a source of external revenue become pronounced in the wake of the positive oil shocks of the 1970s as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to effectively exert its powers as a cartel. In the light of a few developments in the sector, it is clear that the oil sector can no longer power the economy of Nigeria. As a result the non-oil and the private sector are required to ensure that Nigeria develops well-rounded and sustainable economic outcomes.
Entrepreneurial Orientation: A Global Asset For National Development., Sunday Alewo Omale, Kate Obianuju Chima
Entrepreneurial Orientation: A Global Asset For National Development., Sunday Alewo Omale, Kate Obianuju Chima
Bullion
This paper appraised the outcome of Entrepreneurial Orientation on national development . Entrepreneurial orientation (EO) deals with the level in which nations or firms strategically educate its citizens or members to promote entrepreneurial culture to gain economic benefits. EO entails dimensions of innovation, proactiveness and risk taking. It is held that entrepreneurial orientation is required for a successful national development. innovativeness ls the predisposition to engage in creativity and experimentation through the introduction of new products/ services as well as technological leadership and advancement. To drive home the aims of this investigation, relevant data were sourced from management journals, bulletin …
Financial Soundness Indicators And Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Investigation Of The Dynamic Linkages, Baba N. Yaaba
Financial Soundness Indicators And Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Investigation Of The Dynamic Linkages, Baba N. Yaaba
Bullion
The Financial soundness indicators compiled for Nigeria within the context of IMFs Financial Sector Assessment Programme has been proven to be capable of pre-empting financial crisis. Analysts, however, considered it imperative to further explore the characteristics of the indicators, particularly their relationship with other macroeconomic variables to enhance the understanding of its dynamics so as to improve on its usefulness. This study, as a maiden attempt, applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the dynamic linkages between the indicators and selected macroeconomic variables covering the period 2007 Q1 to 2015 Q4. The results indicate that macroeconomic events dictate the …
How Micro Small And Medium Enterprises (Msmes) Can Leverage On Central Bank Of Nigeria's Real Sector Initiatives, Paul Nduka Eluhaiwe
How Micro Small And Medium Enterprises (Msmes) Can Leverage On Central Bank Of Nigeria's Real Sector Initiatives, Paul Nduka Eluhaiwe
Bullion
This paper seeks to explore how MSMES can leverage on financing interventions of the CBN with a view to enabling them grow their businesses, employ more Nigerians and contribute to GDP.
Monetary Policy And Financing Real Sector Growth In Nigeria., Moses K. Tule
Monetary Policy And Financing Real Sector Growth In Nigeria., Moses K. Tule
Bullion
The study examines CBN's real sector financing initiatives and implication for real sector growth and economic development. Section 2 discusses selected CBN real sector financing initiatives. Section 3 is the implications of the initiatives for growth and economic management. Section 4 discusses challenges of implementing the policies while section 5 concludes the paper and presents suggestions on the way forward.
Overview Of Development Financing: The Case Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, M. A. Olaitan
Overview Of Development Financing: The Case Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, M. A. Olaitan
Bullion
This study highlighted the functions of Central Bank under development finance and economic development, and it also went further to state the mandate of the development finance Department which is the development and implementation of policies, programmes and schemes aimed at the effective, efficient and sustainable delivery of financial services to the real sector of the Nigerian economy. The objective of the mandate are to increase the flow of financial resources to the real sector, create wealth and jobs, reduce poverty and so on.
The Place Of Collateral Registry In Credit Delivery Services, Muhammad Mainasara
The Place Of Collateral Registry In Credit Delivery Services, Muhammad Mainasara
Bullion
Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are the main engines of economic growth. The sub-sector constitutes on integral part of the economy, providing products and services to Nigeria's teeming population, yet they are grossly underfunded. The huge financing gap, which characterized the MSMES, inhibits their development, thus having a telling effect on the economy.
The Role Of The Media In Promoting Real Sector Finance., Gbenga Adefaye
The Role Of The Media In Promoting Real Sector Finance., Gbenga Adefaye
Bullion
This paper would focus on the Role of the Media as a social institution, why it should promote real sector financing and how it can promote real sector financing. This is premised on the belief that previous papers have dwelt sufficiently on the issue of technicalities of real sector and aspects of financing.
Macroeconomic Stability And The Role Of Financial Institutions In Promoting Financial Inclusion In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Ibrahim A. Uba
Macroeconomic Stability And The Role Of Financial Institutions In Promoting Financial Inclusion In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Ibrahim A. Uba
Bullion
This article discusses the role of financial institutions in promoting financial inclusion in Nigeria as well as its macroeconomic stability. Positive growth of the economy is prerequisite for financial inclusion but the stability of the economy is sine qua non for economic growth. Therefore, the discussion of financial inclusion is best served when enclosed in the framework of the extent to which the economy is stable. The article further highlights financial inclusion and its related concepts and the role of financial institutions in promoting financial inclusion.
The Role Of The Nigerian Institutional Environment On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Theresa Onaji-Benson
The Role Of The Nigerian Institutional Environment On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Theresa Onaji-Benson
Bullion
Literature on the determinants of foreign direct investment has focused on the influence of macroeconomic conditions and market size, with research on the role of institutions on foreign direct investment especially in developing economies remaining inconclusive This paper seeks to study the Nigerian institutional environment how its positions may affect the inflows of foreign direct investment activity. The study employs the use of time series regression analysis of data sourced from the World Bank governance indicators and the Heritage Foundation index and finds that some institutional factors positively influence the level of foreign direct investment inflows.
Regional And Multilateral Institutional Arrangements In Africa: Rethinking The Imperatives Of Economic Diversification And Trade Development In Nigeria., Harrison O. Okafor
Regional And Multilateral Institutional Arrangements In Africa: Rethinking The Imperatives Of Economic Diversification And Trade Development In Nigeria., Harrison O. Okafor
Bullion
This paper critically assesses the implications of the multilateral trading system along the increasing but asymmetric interface between multilateral and regional institution on African economies with particular evidence for Nigeria. The issues relating to market access, export diversification and supply response to incentives derived from the various agreements provided basis for this reasoned analysis vis-à-vis the implications for growth and trade development imperatives. lt is revealed that the multilateral trading system has not benefited the SSA particularly Nigeria, relative to other regions like Asia. Perhaps. internal and external constraints associated with poor economic fundamentals, asymmetries between the rules of the …
Empirical Model For Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Go-Garch Approach, Godknows Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye
Empirical Model For Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Go-Garch Approach, Godknows Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and four estimators of the GO-GARCH model were considered for fitting the models. Forecast performance tests were conducted using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and the model confidence set (MCS) tests procedures. The DM test indicates preference for the GO-GARCH model estimated with nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator – denoted as GOGARCH-NLS, while the MCS test determined a set of superior models (SSM) …
Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi
Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper models the long-run relationship between the Bureau De Change exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria in a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) framework using daily data that spans from Jan 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2015. Modeling BDC exchange rate and external reserves within this context can be motivated by the fact that the transition mechanism between the variables is controlled by the degree of BDC exchange rates premium which is within central bank of Nigeria’s policy oversight. The supLM test result indicates that there is a non-linear long-run relationship between the series, providing empirical support …
Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem
Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the paper employed GARCH model and its variants (GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH) with daily, monthly and quarterly data. The findings reveal that: all the macroeconomic variables considered (real gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price) are highly volatile; the asymmetric models (TGARCH and EGARCH) outperform the symmetric models (GARCH (1 1) and GARCH – M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real …
Day-Of-The-Week Anomaly: An Illusion Or A Reality? Evidence From Naira/Dollar Exchange Rates, Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor
Day-Of-The-Week Anomaly: An Illusion Or A Reality? Evidence From Naira/Dollar Exchange Rates, Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the day-of-the-week effect in the Nigerian foreign exchange market (Naira against the US dollars), its volatility as well as the asymmetric effects, for the period of 12th May 2009 to 12th June, 2015. The empirical results of GARCH-t(1,1), EGARCH-t(1,1), GJR-GARCH-t(1,1), IGARCH and the OLS methodology shows that the detection of the day-of-the-week effect is influenced by the choice of the volatility model applied. Similarly, the highest or lowest volatility market day goes with the influence of these models. Thus this study clearly support the argument of Charles (2010), that, the days of the week anomalies lies on …
Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi
Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the link between unemployment and monetary policy in Nigeria using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework for the period 1983q1 – 2014q1. The paper investigates the effect of structural change by identifying three structural breakpoints and incorporating them into the VAR model as dummy variables. The results show that a positive shock to policy rate raises unemployment over a 10 quarter period. In addition, all the variables used as proxy in the model jointly Granger cause unemployment, implying the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and unemployment in Nigeria.
Fiscal Policy And Private Investment In Selected West African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Tochi-Nze P. Okenesi, Ekundayo P. Mesagan
Fiscal Policy And Private Investment In Selected West African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Tochi-Nze P. Okenesi, Ekundayo P. Mesagan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sets out to examine the nexus between fiscal policy and private investment in five selected West African countries using annual data from 1993 to 2014. Employing Fixed Effect Model for Panel data ordinary least square approach, the results showed the existence of a significant crowding in effect of government capital expenditure and tax revenue while non-tax revenue showed a crowding out effect. Recurrent expenditure and external debt also showed crowding out effects but these were insignificant. The accelerator effect of output growth was also found to be insignificant across the countries over the time period. The study called …