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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi
Ladd Kochman
Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman
Ladd Kochman
The outcomes of wagers on underdogs in the National Football League for the 2003-2007 seasons indicated that what had been anomalous behavior no longer existed. The failure of underdogs to beat the spread in profitable or nonrandom fashion supports the argument that competitive markets are efficient and undermines the proposition that behavioral finance can illuminate exploitable betting patterns.
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Revisiting The Streaking Teams Phenomenom: A Note, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
In an effort to learn if systematic misperceptions by market participants can undermine efficient prices and create regular profit opportunities, Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993) investigated whether participants in the basketball-betting market overbet streaking (or "hot") teams. The purpose of this note is determine whether streaking teams - both hot and cold-in college football alter point spreads to an exploitable degree. The pointwise outcomes of college football teams following 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, 8-, and 9-game streaks during the 1996-2000 seasons. Streaks in the aggregate produced only breakeven results when used to predict the outcomes of …
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Football Betting And The Neglected-Firm Effect: A Note, Ladd Kochman, David Waples
Ladd Kochman
To the extent that betting is analogous to investing, it seems fair to think that the football-betting market could provide a legitimate test of the neglected-firm effect. In the context of football-betting, neglect as a predictor variable appears to possess no special qualities. Even as the basis for a contrarian rule (that is, betting on teams that are least-neglected), the condition of being overlooked generated a W/B ratio (52.30 percent) that was unable to hurdle the 52.38-percent breakeven rate. Clearly, from a neglected-teams perspective, the football-betting market is efficient. A broader conclusion might be that the neglected-firm effect has little …
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Market Efficiency And The Women's Nba, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin
Ladd Kochman
The availability of point spreads for the past three WNBA seasons offers researchers an early opportunity to test the efficiency of the market for wagers on WNBA games. While the more mature betting markets for football, baseball and men's basketball have generally denied regular profits to participants, the unique and emerging nature of the WNBA would seem to warrant another look at the vulnerability of betting lines. By examining the efficiency of WNBA point spreads, this study is, to a large extent, testing the hypothesis that markets in the emerging stage lack the participation that ensures efficient pricing and thus …