Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Green Transition And Financial Stability: The Role Of Green Monetary And Macroprudential Policies And Vouchers, Ying Tung Chan, Maria Teresa Punzi, Hong Zhao

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper analyzes a mix of alternative policies in supporting the green transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels, without compromising financial stability. An environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model with two sectors (green and brown) and endogenous default is developed to assess potential climate-induced financial stability threats that can be mainly generated through physical and transition risks mechanism. Those risks are evaluated through a compound capital depreciation shock and a carbon tax shock. The paper offers several findings. First of all, a too stringent carbon tax would increase the medium-term default rate in both sectors, harming financial stability …

The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, the world has witnessed a backlash against globalization and a rise in populist and nationalist movements around the world. However, there appears to be little empirical research concerning how these movements, and especially nationalist sentiment, actually influence trade. Therefore, we explore how and when nationalist sentiment within a country influences trade. Our results indicate that the effect of nationalist sentiment on imports is mediated by lower participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) but not via tariffs. Furthermore, we are unable to confirm support for a direct effect of nationalist sentiment on imports, as predicted by the consumer …

Geographic Distance And State's Grip: Information Asymmetry, State Inattention, And Firm Implementation Of State Policy, Xiyi Yang, Heli Wang, Xiaoyu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this study, we develop the argument that geographic distance between the state and local governments undermines the state's capacity to influence the implementation of state policies by local organizations. Drawing from information economics and the attention-based view, we propose that physical distance reduces the state's monitoring effectiveness through two interrelated mechanisms: information asymmetry and state leaders' inattention to distant issues. Using data of Chinese public firms' implementation of environmental activities between 2008 and 2016, we find that firms conduct fewer environmental activities required by the state when they are regulated by local governments that are more geographically distant to …

Liquidity Constraints, Consumption, And Debt Repayment: Evidence From Macroprudential Policy In Turkey, Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, Changcheng Song, Yildirim Yildiray

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using account-level credit card data from a large Turkish bank, we study the impact of a unique credit card policy that increases minimum payment on consumption and debt repayment. We show that the policy reduces credit card spending and debt, boosts existing debt repayment, and reduces credit card delinquency. The credit card debt of affected consumers falls on average by 50% two years into the policy’s implementation. An increase in minimum payment has a stronger effect than does a decrease of a similar magnitude. We build a benchmark life cycle model with soft liquidity constraint to explain the reduction in …

Is Fed Policy In The Eye Of The Beholder?, Leo Krippner, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

While the US Federal Reserve remains vigilant on inflation, it will likely continue its tightening cycle with caution, with an eye on market expectations about future policy actions and financial conditions.

Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …

Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim

Research Collection School Of Economics

As a small and open economy, external developments play a crucial role in shaping Singapore’s growth prospects. In particular, external demand is pivotal in supporting the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) beyond the limits afforded by a small domestic market. Furthermore, due to the resource constraints faced by Singapore, its production of goods and services to meet both external and domestic demand requires a substantial use of imported inputs. Apart from trade, Singapore’s openness and outward-orientation also extend to its embrace of inward and outward investments to grow its economy and create jobs for Singaporeans. In view of …

Monetary Policy Surprises, Stock Returns, And Financial And Liquidity Constraints, In An Exchange Rate Monetary Policy System, John M. Sequeira

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the impact of monetary policy surprises on the stock price behaviour of a small developed economy, whose monetary policy is based on the exchange rate. We find that monetary policy surprises associated with all contractionary policy levers and a neutral policy lever, have a consistently significant and negative impact on stock returns. In comparison, only monetary policy surprises associated with a downward re-centering policy lever, has a significantly positive effect on stock returns. Using a recalibrated classification system, we also find that monetary policy surprises differ across sectors of the economy. Our results show how monetary policy …

Becoming Citizens: Policy Feedback And The Transformation Of The Thai Rice Farmer, Jacob Ricks, Thanapan Laiprakobsub

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Over the past twenty years, Thailand’s rice farmers have become one of the country’s most important and active political constituencies, a sharp contrast from the previous decades wherein they were treated with neglect or even derision by the Thai political elite. These “political peasants” now actively advocate for and successfully receive extensive subsidies from both authoritarian and democratic governments. What has driven this change? In this essay, we draw on theories of the policy feedback loop wherein policies yield both material and cognitive benefits, which change the political behavior of populations. We argue that the Thaksin Shinawatra government’s (2001-2006) paddy …

Fomc Playbook: The Only New Game In Town?, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while taking more aggressive actions, seems to have stuck more or less to the standard playbook of responding to “unusual and exigent circumstances”. This essentially calls for slashing conventional policy rates to their effective lower bound, accompanied by forward guidance, embarking on asset purchases, rolling out emergency liquidity facilities and experimenting with lending programmes. But policymakers, with the required US Treasury backstop, have also introduced more creative programmes to encourage credit extension and reached into different market segments.

Go Big With Economic Push To Fight Covid-19, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Economic policymakers need to focus on taking bold and immediate action in order to tackle the pandemic crisis.

In Singapore, Laws Are Necessary For Trickle-Down Policies To Work, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Law Eugene Tan discussed the necessity for laws in order for trickle-down policies to work. He explained that while the three-in-one Unity, Resilience, and Solidarity Budgets demonstrate the resolve of Singapore to ensure businesses and households are helped amid the public health concerns and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 global pandemic, self-seeking behaviour can undermine well-intended measures as trickle down outcomes end up not materialising. However, he noted that laws have their limitations too, and concluded that an internally driven mode of compliance could be far more effective.

For Ye Have The Poor Always With You: Exploring China's Latest War On Poverty, John A. Donaldson

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

John Donaldson’s section discusses Xi Jinping’s ambitious pledge to end poverty in China by 2020, toward which the CCP has deployed a locally adaptable set of policies that have mobilized actors in the public and private sectors and tied officials’ performance to success in poverty reduction. The Party understands that poverty—a manifestation of a severe inability to provide a good life for the people—represents a concerning indictment of the regime’s legitimacy overall. This paper fills in an analytic gap among Western sources regarding these programs, which have to date seen well over fifty billion dollars of poverty alleviation funding disbursed …

Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Markets seem to be assuming an almost pre-set path of Fed policy normalization in 2019, including hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. In contrast, we see many uncertainties ahead.

Assessing The Effects Of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reforms On Liquidity In The Singapore Government Securities And Mas Bills Market, John M. Sequeira

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The FSB initiated in 2017 an evaluation of the effects of post-crisis regulatory reforms, by developing a framework to assess whether the reforms are achieving their intended outcomes and identify any material unintended consequences. In tandem, MAS established an evaluation framework, which covers four broad impact areas, comprising FIs, financial markets, financial end-users and the broader financial landscape. Internationally, there have been particular concerns over whether post-crisis reforms may have impaired liquidity conditions in specific financial markets. We provide an assessment of the effects of the reforms on liquidity in a key market in Singapore, the SGS and MAS bills …

The Indian Diaspora, Culture, And Foreign Policy, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Indians living overseas can be a bridge to a rapidly changing world

In the United Nations “International Migration Report 2015”, India had the largest diaspora population in the world with 16 million individuals born in the country but living outside of it. It’s a 100 percent increase from the 8 million in 2000, with an increasing number making their way to the United States where Indians make up the second largest immigrant group after Mexicans.

China's "Mercantilist" Government Subsidies, The Cost Of Debt And Firm Performance, Chu Yeong Lim, Jiwei Wang, Cheng (Colin) Zeng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

China has been adopting a “mercantilist” policy by lavishing massive government subsidies on Chinese firms. Using hand-collected subsidy data on Chinese listed companies, we find that firms receiving more subsidies tend to have a lower cost of debt. However, such firms fail to have superior financial performance. Instead, firms with more subsidies tend to be overstaffed, which demonstrates higher social performance. These results are mainly driven by non-tax-based subsidies rather than tax-based subsidies. Overall, our results suggest that the Chinese government uses non-tax-based subsidies to achieve its social policy objectives at the expense of firms’ profitability.

The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.

Domestic Liquidity Conditions And Monetary Policy In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has an unusual exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework that has served the economy well over the past decades. Monetary policy operations are carried out by the central bank through the management of the Singapore dollar against a currency basket. As is well recognized, such foreign exchange interventions do have an impact on domestic liquidity conditions. However, in the case of Singapore, this tends to be counteracted by the liquidity impact of public sector operations related to the fiscal position and the national pension scheme. The central bank takes into account the net liquidity impact these and other autonomous money …

Building Capacity In Asia, Julie Kozack

Asian Management Insights

Policymakers need to be equipped with tools to analyse economic developments and make sound policy decisions.

Short Selling And Economic Policy Uncertainty, Xiaping Cao, Yuchen Wang, Sili Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the trading behavior of short sellers in the presence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Daily short selling activity at either the aggregate level or the individual stock level is increasing in the EPU index (Baker, Bloom and Davis, 2016). EPU has great explanatory power for short trading. Cross-sectional tests show that the increase in short interest under high political uncertainty is from shorting stocks characterized by higher mispricing, greater policy sensitivity, higher illiquidity, greater volatility or analyst dispersion. Short sellers earn abnormal profits by trading on public information related to EPU.

Vu Khoan [Vietnam, Deputy Prime Minister], Vu Khoan

Digital Narratives of Asia

Vu Khoan, former Deputy Prime Minister for Vietnam, shares with DNA how he joined the foreign services, and then took charge of economic reform, where every assignment was a challenge that caused him to grow. He led Vietnam from political isolation to normalizing her international relations, especially with ASEAN countries. Interview and transcript in English and Vietnamese.

Singapore: Real State Control, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The author explains how the government of Singapore has taken on the role of land use planner and housing developer to ensure affordable housing. Numerous instruments have been devised by governments to provide affordable housing. These can be classified into four broad categories: taxes and subsidies, land use and market regulations, public-private partnerships, and institutions that supply housing or provide financing.

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy and the …

An Anatomy Of State Control In The Globalization Of State-Owned Enterprises, Hao Liang, Bing Ren, Sunny Li Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Integrating agency theory with institutional analysis in international business, we propose a state-control perspective to analyze government-control mechanisms in emerging economies’ globalization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We identify two types of state control that influence SOEs’ globalization decisions and the degree of globalization: state ownership control and executives’ political connections, both of which are contingent upon the home country’s evolving institutional environments. Using a two-step corporate globalization decision model and 17,272 firm-year observations of non-financial, Chinese-listed companies, we find a strong impact of both types of state control on SOEs’ globalization, although the impacts differ between the periods before and …

Housing Policies In Singapore: Evaluation Of Recent Proposals And Recommendations For Reform, Sock Yong Phang, David K. C. Lee, Alan Cheong, Kok Fai Phoon, Karol Wee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Singapore housing market is unusual in its high homeownership rate, the dominance of HDB housing, and the extensive intervention of the government in regulating housing supply and demand in both the HDB and private housing sectors. Recent rapid population increases in a low interest rate and high global liquidity environment has resulted in accelerated house prices increases in Singapore. Earlier this year, the government launched “Our Singapore Conversation” of which discussion on housing policies constitutes one major component. This “conversation” comes in the wake of several consecutive rounds of measures to stabilize housing prices using various instruments. This paper …

Marriage And Child Bearing, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter considers the impact of existing incentives and policies to encourage marriage and child-birth, and other direct and indirect ways to raise the total fertility rate (TFR).

Asean: Integration, Internal Dynamics And External Relations, Clara Portela

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Throughout its evolution, ASEAN has consistently maintained its attachment to the full respect of national sovereignty and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, which translates into consensual decision-making, political rather than legally-binding agreements and the lack of sanctions for non-compliance. A major breakthrough in terms of institutionalisation came about with the signing of the ASEAN Charter of 2007, which has enhanced ASEAN’s standing as a rule-based organisation and approximated it somewhat to structures typical of the EU. Unfortunately, the persistence of consensual decision-making and non-confrontational habits has slowed down some of ASEAN’s integration projects and hindered the development of …

Why Do Similar Provinces Approach Development Differently? An Approach To Understanding Central-Local Relations In China, John A. Donaldson

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

As China decentralized in the 1980s, many provinces received the latitude to implement their own strategies and approaches to economic development. Not surprisingly, such strategies varied regionally as provinces with different levels of wealth and resources implemented different approaches to achieving economic development. Yet, some of these examples are quite puzzling, with provinces that share many similarities implementing markedly different strategies. Moreover, some provinces not only implemented different approaches to economic development, but adopted entirely different goals – interpreting the very definition of economic development differently. To explain these differences, China scholars have focused on different factors, including constraints and …

Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government responded swiftly to the 2008 global recession, doling out a range of policies in aid of all levels of wage earners. This paper explores the impacts of economic trends and government policies on low-wage earners. Using a theoretical model and empirical data from a pilot study of recipients of a government Work Support Program, it demonstrates the effects of socioeconomic factors on multi-stressed low-earning families. It discusses the adequacy of current policies in addressing the multiple stressors experienced by low-wage earners.