Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The China Balloon Incident: The Drama Within The Drama, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The recent China Balloon Incident has all the appearance of high drama, though the heat is mainly provided by domestic politics rather than a strategic face-off of the U-2 or Cuba Missile Crisis variety. This is a drama in three acts. In Act 1, “Discovery”, the Biden administration went into action mode on finding that a Chinese “spy” balloon had crossed the US. An air force jet shot the balloon down, displaying Cold War-style toughness with China. In Act 2, “Evaluation”, new facts emerged that shed further light on the episode. Act 3, “Blaming”, involves mutual recriminations that obscure the …

Do Female Local Councilors Improve Women’S Representation?, Lindsay J. Benstead

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections, in which a legislated quota was implemented and women won 47 percent of seats, raises questions about whether electing female councilors improves women’s representation in clientelistic settings. Using data from the Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI), an original survey of 3,600 Tunisians conducted in 2015 by the Program on Governance and Local Development (GLD), this article investigates the relationship between local councilors’ gender and women’s access to help with personal or community issues. Three findings emerge. First, male citizens are thirteen percentage points more likely than female citizens to know a local councilor and six percentage …

Is Authoritarianism Bad For The Economy? Ask Venezuela – Or Hungary Or Turkey, Nisha Bellinger, Byunghwan Son

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Democracy is at risk worldwide. And the economy may be, too.

Seventy-one out of the world’s 195 countries saw their democratic institutions erode in recent years, according to the 2018 year-end report by democracy watchdog Freedom House, a phenomenon known as “democratic backsliding.” Signs of backsliding include elected leaders who expand their executive powers while weakening the legislature and judiciary, elections that have become less competitive and shrinking press freedom.

Electoral Cycle Fluctuations In Partisanship: Global Evidence From Eighty-Six Countries, Kristin Michelitch, Stephen Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Elections are defining elements of democracy but occur infrequently. Given that elections evoke mass mobilization, we expect citizen attachments to political parties to wax during election season and wane in between. By leveraging data from 86 countries across the globe to investigate the effect of the electoral cycle on partisanship, we find that the predicted probability of being close to a political party rises 6 percentage points from cycle midpoint to an election—an effect rivaling traditional key determinants of partisanship. Further, fluctuations are larger where the persistence of party presence throughout the cycle is weaker and socioeconomic development is lower. …

Xi Jinping Visits Seoul: The Bigger Picture 習近平のソウル訪問　大局をみすえて, Mel Gurtov

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

China and Korea watchers jumped to attention when it was announced that Xi Jinping would visit South Korea from July 3-4, rather than visit North Korea first. Although the trip could have been seen as reciprocating ROK President Park Geun-hye’s visit to China in June 2013, the Chinese side surely was aware that the trip would be viewed abroad as a departure from standard Chinese protocol and would probably upset Kim Jong-un and his colleagues. But while the trip can be judged a success for China, the North Koreans may have less to worry about than might at first appear.

Integration With Global Financial Markets And Domestic Political Reform: Comparing Poland And Turkey, Birol A. Yeşilada, Janusz Puzniak, Ahmet Sozen

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper is about the political economy of policy reform in contemporary Poland and Turkey. It focuses on the period of 1980-97 in Turkey and 1989-97 in Poland during which the economies of these countries underwent significant structural changes and became integrated with global financial markets with the rise of the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 1991 and the Istanbul Stock Exchange in 1986.

The first part of the paper provides an overview of the contending theoretical perspectives on "Phoenix risen" and on how external and domestic economic factors influence domestic political reforms in countries where integration with international financial markets …