Hydrology Commons^™

Enhancing Agricultural Sustainability Under Climate Change: A Multi-Scale Framework Integrating Climate Extremes, Resource Efficiency, And Data-Driven Modeling, Shahryar Fazli

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

Agricultural systems are increasingly challenged by climate variability, where shifting temperature regimes, hydrological variability, and the rising frequency of compound and cascading extremes threaten global food security and resource sustainability. Addressing these challenges requires integrated frameworks that bridge biophysical monitoring, predictive modeling, and adaptive decision-making. This dissertation develops a data-driven, multi-scale framework to quantify and enhance agricultural resilience by integrating remote sensing, climate analytics, and machine learning across the United States, with a focus on California and the Western U.S.

First, hyperspectral and thermal remote sensing data from EMIT and OpenET are integrated to characterize crop nitrogen–water interactions and assess …

Global Performance Of Remote Sensing-Based And Reanalysis-Driven Models To Estimate Open Water Evaporation, Júlia Brusso Rossi, Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Leonardo Laipelt, Bruno Comini De Andrade, Joshua B. Fisher, Justin L. Huntington, Christopher Pearson, R. Iestyn Woolway, Roseilson Vale, Júlio Tota, Gabriel B. Senay, Huilin Gao, Anderson Ruhoff

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, we analyze the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. We compare 3 remote sensing‐based …

Hydroclimatic Whiplash Across The Contiguous United States: Characterizing Wet–Dry Transitions In Pdsi And Phdi, James Lam, Thomas Christopher Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Hydroclimatic whiplash, characterized by rapid transitions between wet and dry conditions, poses a growing challenge for water resource management and ecosystem stability. However, the spatial and statistical characteristics of wet–dry transitions across the contiguous United States are not fully understood. This study analyzed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) records from 344 NOAA climate divisions spanning 1895–2024. Whiplash was defined as a transition between severe drought and severe wetness within 12-month rolling windows. Statistical descriptors including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and skewness were evaluated for whiplash and non-whiplash windows to assess differences between them. Whiplash hotspots …

Evapotranspiration Everywhere, All The Time: Towards A Unified View From Earth Observation, Joshua B. Fisher, Martha C. Anderson, Diego G. Miralles, Kanishka Mallick, Paul C. Stoy, Youngryel Ryu, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Scientists want to know everything, everywhere, and all the time. This is particularly true in Earth science, where we seek to understand processes that span from the molecular to the planetary scale in how the world works, how it affects us, and how we impact it—especially the water cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was the last component to be measured in closing the water cycle: for decades, closing the water budget meant adding up all the measurable components, then inferring ET as the residual. Early measurements relied on water loss from pans and weighing lysimeters, followed by sensors inserted into plants to …

Monitoring Koyna Dam Displacements Using Persistent Scatterer Interferometry, Sara Zouriq, Gehan Hamdy, Amr Fawzy, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary, Eehab Khalil, Mohamed Elsayad, Tarik El-Salawaky

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Monitoring dam stability is critical to ensure structural safety and operational reliability. This study integrates Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery (2020–2023) with Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations to assess the behavior of the Koyna Dam in India. PSI detected crest displacements between −1.0 and −1.8 mm yr−1, while FEM simulations predicted a maximum vertical displacement of approximately −3.2 mm at the crest. Although these results represent different quantities (time-averaged displacement rates versus peak static displacement), both approaches indicate millimeter-scale deformation and a consistent pattern of settlement at the dam crest, supporting the interpretation of hydrologically driven …

Bioclimatic Reorganization Of Carbon–Water–Energy Coupling Revealed By Eddy Covariance And Interpretable Machine Learning, Koong Yi, Margaret S. Torn, Gabriel B. Senay, Lixin Wang, Kosana Suvočarev, Joshua B. Fisher, Arman Ahmadi, Housen Chu, Gil Bohrer, Georgianne W. Moore, Stephen P. Good, Steven A. Kannenberg, Justine E. C. Missik, Kanishka Mallick, Kul Khand, Youngryel Ryu, Kuno Kasak, A. Christopher Oishi, David E. Reed, Xiangzhong Luo, Carl J. Bernacchi, Dennis Baldocchi

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Ecosystem exchanges of carbon, water, and energy are central to Earth system functioning, yet their sensitivities to environmental variability remain poorly constrained across biomes and climates. Here, we analyzed ≥ 5 years of eddy covariance data from 87 AmeriFlux sites (964 site-years) spanning six vegetation types and a broad range of climatic conditions to examine the controls and multi-year trends of gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), and the Bowen ratio. We trained boosted regression tree ensembles with environmental (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil water content, atmospheric CO2, radiation, wind speed) and temporal (month, year) variables …

A Review Of Satellite-Derived Terrestrial Evapotranspiration: Theories, Methods And Products, Yunjun Yao, Jiquan Chen, Joshua B. Fisher, Changliang Shao, Yuanbo Liu

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Accurately estimating terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), the second-largest hydrologic flux in the terrestrial water cycle, is vital for understanding global water and carbon exchanges. It is difficult to measure and estimate terrestrial ET at regional and global scales. Satellites have provided us an effective tool to estimate regional and global terrestrial ET in recent decades. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the basic theoretical foundations, methods and products of satellite-derived terrestrial ET. The basic theoretical foundations for estimating terrestrial ET are the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and other budding theories (e.g., Maximum entropy production theory, and generalized Hamilton …

A Probabilistic Deep Learning Framework For Retrieving Chlorophyll-A From Hyperspectral Imagery: Integrating Channel Attention And Mixture Density Networks, Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Rejoice Thomas, Junde Chen, Hesham Morgan, Michael J. Garay, Olga V. Kalashnikova, Shahryar Fazli, Charles Ichoku, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Accurate monitoring of Chlorophyll-a (Chla) is critical for assessing aquatic ecosystem health, yet ecological complexity often leads to ambiguous spectral signatures in satellite data. Traditional deterministic models assume a one-to-one mapping between spectra and pigments, often failing to capture these high-dimensional analytical challenges. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning architecture, the Channel Attention-Mixture Density Network (CA-MDN), to retrieve Chla from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) hyperspectral mission. The CA-MDN integrates an attention mechanism to dynamically select ecologically relevant spectral bands and employs a probabilistic output layer to quantify …

The World's Largest Saddle Dam At Risk: Multisensor Geohazard Analysis And Downstream Impacts, Hesham El-Askary, Hesham Morgan, Surendra Maharjan, Ali Elgendy, Wenzhao Li, Rejoice Thomas, Austin Madson, Cyril Rakovski

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Saddle Dam, which holds approximately 89% of the main reservoir's live storage, is one of the largest and most critical auxiliary dams globally; its construction on Ethiopia's Blue Nile has consequently raised significant regional and international concerns regarding potential environmental impacts and geohazard risks. This study presents a comprehensive risk assessment of the GERD Saddle Dam by integrating high-resolution satellite data (GRACE, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3), hydrological modeling (SWAT), Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI), geospatial analysis, and advanced statistical techniques. The results highlight critical structural vulnerabilities, including groundwater infiltration estimated at approximately 41 ± 6.2 billion …

A High-Resolution Daily Precipitation Fusion Framework Integrating Radar, Satellite, And Nwp Data Using Machine Learning Over South Korea, Hyoju Park, Hiroyuki Miyazaki, Menas Kafatos, Seung Hee Kim, Yangwon Lee

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Accurate precipitation mapping is essential for effective disaster management; however, individual radar, satellite, and numerical weather prediction products often struggle in the topographically complex terrain of South Korea. This study proposes a high-resolution (~500 m) daily precipitation fusion framework that integrates Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) radar, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) data. The framework employs a Random Forest model augmented with a monthly Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function (ECDF) correction. Auxiliary predictors are incorporated to enhance physical interpretability and stability, including terrain attributes to represent orographic effects, land-cover …

Synthesis Study Of Evapotranspiration Evolution In The Mekong Delta Induced By Land Use And Land Cover Changes In The Decades Of 1990–2020, Emiliana Valentini, Serena Sapio, Son V. Nghiem, Seung Hee Kim, Sara Liburdi, Andrea Taramelli

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a key role in the water cycle and balance, and its estimation is of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This variable is also strongly influenced by the land use and land cover (LULC). This study use a synthesis approach to analyse the relationship between ET variation and LULC transformation in the period 1990–2020. The study area represents a major agricultural region in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam between the Mekong and Bassac rivers. The multivariate dataset was ingested into the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to examine the multidecadal ET evolution across the study region. …

Climate Change Has Increased Global Evaporative Demand Except In South Asia, Saeed Karimzadeh, Arman Ahmadi, Dennis Baldocchi, Joshua B. Fisher

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Climate change alters how strongly the atmosphere draws water from the land, yet a consistent global assessment of this evaporative demand has been lacking. Here, we analyze 45 years of climate data and global models to quantify trends in the key drivers—air temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed, and cloud cover—that determine the atmosphere’s drying power. We find that evaporative demand has increased worldwide, indicating a stronger atmospheric thirst, except in South Asia, where it has declined. There, widespread irrigation has increased soil and air moisture, enhanced cloud formation, and reduced sunlight reaching the surface, counteracting the global signal. These contrasting …

New Precipitation Is Scarce In Deep Soils: Findings From 47 Forest Plots Spanning Switzerland, Emily I. Burt, Scott T. Allen, Sabine Braun, Simon Tresch, James W. Kirchner, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

As precipitation infiltrates into soils, it can recharge them, displace previously stored waters, or bypass already-filled pores. Using 3,697 δ2H and δ18O measurements of water collected nearly monthly over >3 years in 47 forest plots across Switzerland, we present a systematic investigation of the controls on mobile soil water transport. We quantified the lags and damping of water as it percolates downward using young water fraction analysis (Fyw), and the fractions of soil water composed by precipitation that fell within the previous month (new water fractions, Fnew). The Fnew of water sampled in surface soils ranged …

The Future Intensification Of Hydrological Extremes And Whiplashes In The Contiguous United States Increase Community Vulnerability, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, John D. Bolten, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydroclimatic whiplash rapid shifts between drought and flood poses growing risks to U.S. communities. Here, we assess historical extremes and future projections using a normalized streamflow metric: the annual mean flow’s deviation from the 1981–2020 average, expressed as a fraction of that average. This metric is applied to United States Geological Survey records and Localized Constructed Analogs downscaled projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Results reveal sharp regional disparities, with drought deficits exceeding 300% of normal flow during multi-year droughts. By linking hydrologic outcomes with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index, we find that counties facing …

Performance Mapping And Weighting For The Evapotranspiration Models Of The Openet Ensemble, M. Reitz, J. M. Volk, T. Ott, M. Anderson, G. B. Senay, F. Melton, A. Kilic, R. Allen, Joshua B. Fisher, A. Ruhoff, A. J. Purdy, J. Huntington

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for the majority of water available from precipitation in the terrestrial water cycle, and improvements to the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of ET data can enhance hydrologic models and assessments. The OpenET collaboration of six remotely sensed ET modeling teams has demonstrated that an ensemble approach to ET estimation generally provides improved accuracy relative to individual ensemble members. The performance of individual models has been shown to vary by land cover type and climate zone, but a thorough study of the variables that influence model performance differences has not yet been conducted. In this paper, we model …

Decoding Teleconnection Impacts On Hydrological Switches In The Conus Using Wavelet Analysis, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, Shahryar Fazli, Hesham Morgan, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrometeorological teleconnections are key drivers of hydrological processes, representing the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on regional climates. Understanding these teleconnections provides crucial insights into the mechanisms underlying hydrometeorological phenomena, particularly hydrological switches—rapid transitions between extreme events such as droughts and floods. These switches have become increasingly prevalent across the contiguous United States (CONUS), fueled by climate variability and evolving atmospheric patterns. This study utilizes cross-wavelet transform analysis to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of hydrological switches and their correlations with major teleconnection indices, including NAO, ONI, WP, PDO, PNA, and QBO. The findings indicate significant coherence between …

Insights From Swot Data On Transboundary Upstream-Downstream Impacts In The Nile Basin, Hesham Morgan, Wenzhao Li, Ali Elgendy, Surendra Maharjan, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study utilizes high-resolution data from NASA's Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to investigate water dynamics and upstream-downstream impacts across key reservoirs in the Nile Basin. Focusing on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Rosaries Dam, Merowe Dam, and the Aswan High Dam, the analysis spans 15 months (August 2023 to October 2024). By systematically selecting 30 points across each reservoir, monthly boxplots of surface water elevation were generated, revealing significant temporal and spatial variability. The results show that GERD’s filling phase led to a steady increase in water levels (peaking at ~615 meters from June to October …

Assessing Meteorological Impacts On Hydrological Switches In The Conus, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, Sujan Shrestha, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrological switches, defined as rapid transitions between extreme meteorological events such as droughts and floods, are becoming increasingly frequent across the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to climate variability. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological switches and their correlation with large-scale meteorological indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Streamflow data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) is analyzed to investigate the impact of meteorological drivers on hydrological variability. Results indicate that regions dependent on snowmelt exhibit delayed hydrological responses to climatic conditions, while areas in the Eastern …

Limited Soil Water Recharge In Summer Affects Seasonal Isotopic Signatures Of Tree Xylem Water, Marius G. Floriancic, Gregory R. Goldsmith, Harsh Beria, Scott T. Allen, James W. Kirchner

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Recent studies have reported that xylem waters in forest trees during the summer growing season are often isotopically similar to winter, rather than summer, precipitation. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this observation, which can be viewed as a form of ecohydrological separation, but empirical tests spanning space and time remain limited. We hypothesise that variations in the seasonal origin of precipitation found in tree xylem waters can be explained by seasonal differences in soil water recharge. We test this hypothesis by evaluating to what extent climatic aridity can explain seasonal signals in extensive surveys of the isotope ratios …

Remote Sensing-Based Assessment Of Evapotranspiration Patterns In A Unesco World Heritage Site Under Increasing Water Competition, Maria C. Moyano, Monica Garcia, Luis Juana, Laura Recuero, Lucia Tornos, Joshua B. Fisher, Néstor Fernández, Alicia Palacias-Orueta

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

In water-scarce regions, natural ecosystems and agriculture increasingly compete for limited water resources, intensifying stress during periods of drought. To assess these competing demands, we applied a modified PT-JPL model that incorporates the thermal inertial approach as a substitute for relative humidity (RH) in estimating soil evaporation—a method that significantly outperforms the original PT-JPL formulation in Mediterranean semi-arid irrigated areas. This remote sensing framework enabled us to quantify spatial and temporal variations in water use across both natural and agricultural systems within the UNESCO World Heritage site of Doñana. Our analysis revealed an increasing evapotranspiration (ET) trend in intensified agricultural …

A Novel Approach To Increase Accuracy In Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Through Basin Water Balance And Flux Tower Constraints, Kul Khand, Gabriel B. Senay, Mackenzie Friedrichs, Koong Yi, Joshua B. Fisher, Lixin Wang, Kosana Suvočarev, Arman Ahmadi, Housen Chu, Stephen Good, Kanishka Mallick, Justine Missik, Jacob A. Nelson, David E. Reed, Tianxin Wang, Xiangming Xiao

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address …

Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns And Hydrological Whiplashes In The Western U.S., Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The Western U.S. is undergoing notable transformations in its hydrological patterns, distinguished by rising variability and recurrent “whiplash” shifts between extreme wet and dry phases. Our comprehensive analysis of 469 streamflow stations from 1981 to 2023 reveals a substantial increase in hydrological whiplash events, with a peak of 206 stations experiencing dry-to-wet whiplash in the early 1990s. We establish strong links between these streamflow extremes and sub-seasonal to seasonal teleconnection factors, particularly the Western Pacific Oscillation (WP) and Eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation (EPO). Additionally, we demonstrate the combined impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), …

Enhancing Water Scarcity Resilience In Egypt Through Machine Learning-Driven Phenological Crop Mapping And Water Use Efficiency Analysis, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, Shahryar Fazli, Aqil Tariq, Rejoice Thomas, Cyril Rakovski, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Agriculture forms the backbone of Egypt’s economy, with the Nile Valley and Delta serving as key production zones for crops like wheat, rice, and clover. However, the sector faces mounting pressure from water scarcity, as it depends almost entirely on the Nile for irrigation, making it necessary to map major crops for assessing Water Use Efficiency (WUE) and informing agricultural planning. In this study, we used machine learning (ML) techniques—specifically Support Vector Machine (SVM) to time-series phenological data and optical indices (Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Bare Soil Index (BSI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and …

Evaluation Of Ecostress Collection 2 Evapotranspiration Products: Strengths And Uncertainties For Evapotranspiration Modeling, Zoe Amie Pierrat, Adam J. Purdy, Gregory Halverson, Joshua B. Fisher, Kanishka Mallick, Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell, Youngryel Rye, Martha C. Anderson, Claire Villanueva-Weeks, Margaret C. Johnson, Brenna Hatch, Evan Davis, Yun Yang, Kerry Cawse-Nicholson

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) collects thermal observations from the International Space Station to support evapotranspiration (ET) research at fine spatial resolutions (70 m × 70 m). Initial ET from ECOSTRESS Collection 1 was used in scientific research and applications, though subsequent analyses identified areas for improvement. This study outlines updates to ECOSTRESS Collection 2 ET and presents an accuracy assessment of ET and auxiliary variables validated against in situ data from AmeriFlux. Key updates in Collection 2 include use of four independent model estimates of instantaneous latent energy (LE) and improved auxiliary forcing data. …

Land Instability Compounds The Risk Of Sea Level Rise In Alexandria, Egypt, Rejoice Thomas, Sara Zouriq, Shahryar Fazli, Amr Fawzy, Nikolay Grisel Todorov, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, Erik Linstead, Daniele Struppa, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The coastal region of Alexandria Governorate in Egypt holds significant strategic importance for trade while being susceptible to extreme weather events. It confronts a dual challenge of the rising sea levels and, as found in this study, land instability. While much attention has been rightly directed towards sea level rise (SLR), the stability of the land warrants equal consideration. Here, a comprehensive analysis of land stability is conducted in Alexandria by measuring Line of Sight (LOS) displacements and assessing their topographical, hydrological, and coastal impacts. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry technique is used to measure the LOS displacements in association with land …

Geospatial Intelligence And Multi-Criteria Analysis For Mapping Groundwater Potential Zones And Sustainable Resource Management In Wadi Qena Basin, Eastern Desert, Egypt, El-Taher M. M. Shams, Rashad Sawires, Sahar N. E. Tawfiq, Hanaa R. Youssef, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Groundwater is a rare and valuable resource in arid and hyperarid areas. Over the past few decades, population growth, urbanization, and agricultural activities—particularly in developing countries like Egypt—have greatly increased the demand for water supplies. The purpose of this study is to apply a multi-criteria analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in conjunction with remote sensing and geographic information systems methodologies to identify potential zones for groundwater recharge in Wadi Qena, Eastern Desert of Egypt. This valley is considered as one of the most potential valleys for government-led land reclamation and development initiatives. Using several data sources (e.g., Landsat-8 Enhanced Thematic Mapper …

Escalating Hydrological Extremes And Whiplashes In The Western U.S.: Challenges For Water Management And Frontline Communities, Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated better with surface water storage in the basins than other drought/wetness indicators. Application of the index revealed heightened hydrological extremes and whiplash events post-2015 in all Western U.S. basins, with nearly 72% of stations facing critically dry conditions in 2021 and over 54% experiencing extreme wet conditions in 2023. Future projections indicate a decline of 8.5%–13.2% in non-extreme water year types …

From Seasonality To Causality: Understanding Urban Water Usage Using Statistical And Machine Learning Models, Kelsey Hawkins

Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (MS) Theses

This study examines the relationship between climate conditions and residential water usage, focusing on how seasonal and environmental changes influence water consumption. Utilizing data from over 100,000 households across three micro-climate zones for over a five-year period, we apply statistical analysis and machine learning techniques to assess the impact of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and location on water usage. By integrating climate and billing data, this research provides a data-driven approach on water usage behaviors in Irvine, CA, in collaboration with Irvine Ranch Water District (IRWD).

Our analysis utilizes time series modeling, including a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and …

Innovative Machine Learning, Isotopic, And Hydrogeochemical Techniques For Groundwater Analysis In Arid Landscapes In Egypt’S Eastern Desert, Saad Ahmed Mohallel, Hesham Morgan, Ali Elgendy, Surendra Maharjan, Shahryar Fazli, Wenzhao Li, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Groundwater serves as a lifeline in Egypt’s hyper-arid Eastern Desert, particularly for agricultural and domestic uses. However, a comprehensive understanding of groundwater origin, quality, and recharge dynamics in the region remains limited due to geological complexity, data scarcity, and the high cost of isotopic analysis. This study addresses these challenges by integrating stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H), hydrogeochemical parameters, remote sensing, and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) to investigate groundwater dynamics and support sustainable water management strategies. A total of 34 groundwater samples were collected from three key aquifers: the Quaternary alluvium, Nubian Sandstone, and fractured Basement aquifers. Hydrochemical analyses and …

Reviews And Syntheses: Variable Inundation Across Earth’S Terrestrial Ecosystems, James Stegen, Amy J. Burgin, Michelle H. Busch, Joshua B. Fisher, Joshua Ladau, Jenna Abrahamson, Lauren Kinsman-Costello, Li Li, Xingyuan Chen, Thibault Datry, Nate Mcdowell, Corianne Tatariw, Anna Braswell, Jillian M. Deines, Julia A. Guimond, Peter Regler, Kenton Rod, Edward K. P. Bam, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Inke Forbrich, Kristin L. Jaeger, Teri O'Meara, Tim Scheibe, Erin Seybold, Jon N. Sweetman, Jianqiu Zheng, Daniel C. Allen, Elizabeth Herndon, Beth A. Middleton, Scott Painter, Kevin Roche, Julianne Scamardo, Ross Vander Vorste, Kristin Boye, Ellen Wohl, Margaret Zimmer, Kelly Hondula, Maggi Laan, Anna Marshall, Kaizad F. Patel

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal …