Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Multistage Incidence Estimation Model For Diseases With Differential Mortality, Alyssa W. Dray

HMC Senior Theses

According to theWorld Health Organization, surgically removable cataract remains the leading cause of blindness worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, cataract surgical rate targets should ideally be set based on cataract incidence (the number of new cataracts developed each year). Unfortunately, the longitudinal studies necessary to measure incidence have not yet been feasible in these areas. Our research instead proposes a method for estimating incidence based on available cataract prevalence data. We extend a method proposed by Podgor and Leske (1986) to estimate age-specific incidence from age-specific prevalence in single diseases with differential mortality. A two-stage disease extension is created in order …