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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer
CCPO Publications
Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades …
Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann
Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann
CCPO Publications
Rising water temperatures along the northeastern U.S. continental shelf have resulted in an offshore range shift of the Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima to waters still occupied by ocean quahogs Arctica islandica. Fishers presently are prohibited from landing both Atlantic surfclams and ocean quahogs in the same catch, thus limiting fishing to locations where the target species can be sorted on deck. Wind energy development on and around the fishing grounds will further restrict the fishery. A spatially explicit model of the Atlantic surfclam fishery (Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator) has the ability to simulate the consequences of fishery displacement …
Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid‐Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Zihao Bian, Hong-Yi Li, Eileen E. Hofmann
Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid‐Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Zihao Bian, Hong-Yi Li, Eileen E. Hofmann
CCPO Publications
The lateral transport and degassing of carbon in riverine ecosystems is difficult to quantify on large spatial and long temporal scales due to the relatively poor representation of carbon processes in many models. Here, we coupled a scale‐adaptive hydrological model with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to simulate key riverine carbon processes across the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Watersheds from 1900 to 2015. Our results suggest that throughout this time period riverine CO2 degassing and lateral dissolved inorganic carbon fluxes to the coastal ocean contribute nearly equally to the total riverine carbon outputs (mean ± standard deviation: 886 ± …
Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long‐Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Eileen E. Hofmann, Rongting Xu, Bowen Zhang
Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long‐Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Eileen E. Hofmann, Rongting Xu, Bowen Zhang
CCPO Publications
Excessive nutrient inputs from land, particularly nitrogen (N), have been found to increase the occurrence of hypoxia and harmful algal blooms in coastal ecosystems. To identify the main contributors of increased N loading and evaluate the efficacy of water pollution control policies, it is essential to quantify and attribute the long‐term changes in riverine N export. Here, we use a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial–aquatic interface model to examine how multiple environmental factors may have affected N export from the Chesapeake Bay watershed since 1900. These factors include changes in climate, carbon dioxide, land use, and N inputs (i.e., atmospheric N deposition, animal …
The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth
The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth
CCPO Publications
Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, …
Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington
Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington
CCPO Publications
Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …
Climate-Change-Driven Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Detected In The Altimeter Era, R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum
Climate-Change-Driven Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Detected In The Altimeter Era, R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum
CCPO Publications
Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2. Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.
Urban Areas In Coastal Zones, Richard C. Dawson, M. Shah Alam Khan, Vivien Gornitz, Maria Fernanda Lemos, Larry Atkinson, Julie Pullen, Juan Camilo Osorio, Lindsay Usher, Cynthia Rosenzweig (Ed.), William Solecki (Ed.), Patricia Romero-Lankao (Ed.), Shagun Mehrotra (Ed.), Shobhakar Dhakal (Ed.), Somayya Ali Ibrahim (Ed.)
Urban Areas In Coastal Zones, Richard C. Dawson, M. Shah Alam Khan, Vivien Gornitz, Maria Fernanda Lemos, Larry Atkinson, Julie Pullen, Juan Camilo Osorio, Lindsay Usher, Cynthia Rosenzweig (Ed.), William Solecki (Ed.), Patricia Romero-Lankao (Ed.), Shagun Mehrotra (Ed.), Shobhakar Dhakal (Ed.), Somayya Ali Ibrahim (Ed.)
CCPO Publications
[First Paragraph] Coastal cities have been subjected to extreme weather events since the onset of urbanization. Climatic change, in particular sea level rise, coupled with rapid urban development are amplifying the challenge of managing risks to coastal cities. Moreover, urban expansion and changes and intensification in land use further pressure sensitive coastal environments through pollution and habitat loss.
A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann
A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann
CCPO Publications
Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …
Odu-European Collaborations On Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Reserach, Tal Ezer
Odu-European Collaborations On Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Reserach, Tal Ezer
CCPO Publications
Less than five years ago, Old Dominion University started the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative (CCSLRI), which led to the recently established Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute (MARI) and the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness & Resilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project. This interdisciplinary area of research also has a long history in many European countries. Direct measurements of sea level started more than 200 years ago and flood mitigation measures have been in effect for a long time in London, the Netherlands and many other places. Today, reports on flooding in Norfolk, UK, by the BBC or …
Imber- Research For Marine Sustainability: Synthesis And The Way Forward, Eileen Hofmann, Alida Bundy, Ken Drinkwater, Alberto R. Piola, Bernard Avril, Carol Robinson
Imber- Research For Marine Sustainability: Synthesis And The Way Forward, Eileen Hofmann, Alida Bundy, Ken Drinkwater, Alberto R. Piola, Bernard Avril, Carol Robinson
CCPO Publications
The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims at developing a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth system and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. This overview of the IMBER project provides a synthesis of project achievements and highlights the value of collaborative, interdisciplinary, integrated research approaches as developed and implemented through …
A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim
A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim
CCPO Publications
Past studies have described large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the Southern Hemisphere that lead to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold events (WE and CE). By relying on this description and the importance of the related variability in the lead up to WE and CE, Southern Hemisphere SLP variations in May-June-July (MJJ) are shown here to be excellent predictors for the peak warm/cold events in sea-surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressure that mark the mature phase of a warm/cold event in November-January of the same year. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) are used to extract the …
Krill, Climate, And Contrasting Future Scenarios For Arctic And Antarctic Fisheries, Margaret M. Mcbride, Padmini Dalpadado, Kenneth F. Drinkwater, Olav Rune Godø, Alistair J. Hobday, Anne B. Hollowed, Trond Kristiansen, Eugene J. Murphy, Patrick H. Ressler, Sam Subbey, Eileen E. Hofmann, Harald Loeng
Krill, Climate, And Contrasting Future Scenarios For Arctic And Antarctic Fisheries, Margaret M. Mcbride, Padmini Dalpadado, Kenneth F. Drinkwater, Olav Rune Godø, Alistair J. Hobday, Anne B. Hollowed, Trond Kristiansen, Eugene J. Murphy, Patrick H. Ressler, Sam Subbey, Eileen E. Hofmann, Harald Loeng
CCPO Publications
Arctic and Antarcticmarine systems have incommon high latitudes, large seasonal changes in light levels, cold air and sea temperatures, and sea ice. In other ways, however, they are strikingly different, including their: age, extent, geological structure, ice stability, and foodweb structure. Both regions contain very rapidly warming areas and climate impacts have been reported, as have dramatic future projections. However, the combined effects of a changing climate on oceanographic processes and foodweb dynamics are likely to influence their future fisheries in very different ways. Differences in the life-history strategies of the key zooplankton species (Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean …
The Connection Between Local Sea Level Rise, Climate Change And Ocean Circulation, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson
The Connection Between Local Sea Level Rise, Climate Change And Ocean Circulation, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson
CCPO Publications
In recent years, Norfolk has become a symbol for a city that is already battling the impact of sea level rise (SLR). Street flooding during high tides (Fig. 1, left) is much more common now than in the past, and storm surges (Fig. 1, right) are more severe and last longer. Therefore, as part of Old Dominion University’s Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative (CCSLRI), CCPO scientists focus on studies that enhance our understanding of the causes of local SLR and improve our ability to predict future SLR. This information can help policy makers, insurers, city planners and other …
Sea Level Rise And Flooding Risk In Virginia, Larry P. Atkinson, Tal Ezer, Elizabeth Smith
Sea Level Rise And Flooding Risk In Virginia, Larry P. Atkinson, Tal Ezer, Elizabeth Smith
CCPO Publications
Consistent rises in sea level have occurred throughout the world for thousands of years. Flooding, storm surges, and other consequences of the rise in sea level have had widespread effects on coastal communities across the globe. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Norfolk/Virginia Beach region along the U.S. Atlantic coastline, where the sea level is rising more rapidly than the global average. This article discusses the causes of and the differences between the rise in sea levels globally and the rise of the sea level in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The article also emphasizes the problems …
Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett
Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett
CCPO Publications
Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation, separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis shows that rates of SLR have increased from similar to 1-3 mm y(-1) in the 1930s to similar to 4-10 mm y(-1) in 2011, an acceleration of similar to 0.05-0.10 mm y(-2) that is …
Can Oysters Crassostrea Virginica Develop Resistance To Dermo Disease In The Field: The Impediment Posed By Climate Cycles, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Ximing Guo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Susan E. Ford, David Bushek
Can Oysters Crassostrea Virginica Develop Resistance To Dermo Disease In The Field: The Impediment Posed By Climate Cycles, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Ximing Guo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Susan E. Ford, David Bushek
CCPO Publications
Populations of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, are commonly limited by mortality from dermo disease. Little development of resistance to Perkinsus marinus, the dermo pathogen, has occurred, despite the high mortality rates and frequency of epizootics. Can the tendency of the parasite to exhibit cyclic epizootics limit the oyster's response to the disease despite the presence of alleles apparently conferring disease resistance? We utilize a gene-based population dynamics model to simulate the development of disease resistance in Crassostrea virginica populations exposed to cyclic mortality encompassing periodicities expected of dermo disease over the geographic range at which epizootics have been …
Analysis Of Relative Sea Level Variations And Trends In The Chesapeake Bay: Is There Evidence For Acceleration In Sea Level Rise?, Tal Ezer, William B. Corlett
Analysis Of Relative Sea Level Variations And Trends In The Chesapeake Bay: Is There Evidence For Acceleration In Sea Level Rise?, Tal Ezer, William B. Corlett
CCPO Publications
Over the past few decades the pace of relative sea level rise (SLR) in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) has been 2-3 times faster than that of the globally mean absolute sea level. Our study is part of ongoing research that tries to determine if this SLR trend is continuing at the same pace, slowing down (SLR deceleration) or speeding up (SLR acceleration). We introduce a new analysis method for sea level data that is based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT); the analysis separates the SLR trend from other oscillating modes of different scales. Bootstrap calculations using …
Understanding How Disease And Environment Combine To Structure Resistance In Estuarine Bivalve Populations, Eileen E. Hofmann, David Bushek, Susan E. Ford, Ximing Guo, Dale Haidvogel, Dennis Hedgecock, John M. Klinck, Coren Milbury, Diego Narvaez, Eric Powell, Yongping Wang, Zhiren Wang, Liusuo Zhang
Understanding How Disease And Environment Combine To Structure Resistance In Estuarine Bivalve Populations, Eileen E. Hofmann, David Bushek, Susan E. Ford, Ximing Guo, Dale Haidvogel, Dennis Hedgecock, John M. Klinck, Coren Milbury, Diego Narvaez, Eric Powell, Yongping Wang, Zhiren Wang, Liusuo Zhang
CCPO Publications
Delaware Bay oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations are influenced by two lethal parasites that cause Dermo and MSX diseases. As part of the US National Science Foundation Ecology of Infectious Diseases initiative, a program developed for Delaware Bay focuses on understanding how oyster population genetics and population dynamics interact with the environment and these parasites to structure he host populations, and how these interactions might modified by climate change. Laboratory and field studies undertaken during this program include identifying genes related to MSX and Dermo disease resistance, potential regions for refugia and the mechanisms that allow them to exist, …
Hydrodynamic Numerical Ocean Models Support Environmental Studies And Conservation Efforts: From An Arctic Estuary To A Caribbean Coral Reef, Tal Ezer
CCPO Publications
Potential future climate changes, as highlighted recently by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, are likely to have different local impacts in different regions of the globe. Oceanic ecosystems may be especially sensitive to large environmental variation, and they are closely connected to physical changes such as temperature, salinity, currents and sea level. Two examples, from very different environments – one in a cold climate and one in a tropical climate, will be discussed here to show how hydrodynamic numerical models are helping to understand physical-biological interactions and potentially help dealing with future climate changes.
Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin
Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin
CCPO Publications
Hurricanes mix and cool the upper ocean, as shown here in observations and modeling of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of hurricane Wilma. Curiously, the upper ocean around the Loop Current warmed prior to Wilma's entrance into the Gulf. The major cause was increased volume and heat transports through the Yucatan Channel produced by storm-induced convergences in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Such oceanic variability may have important impacts on hurricane predictions.
Can Long-Term Variability In The Gulf Stream Transport Be Inferred From Sea Level?, Tal Ezer
Can Long-Term Variability In The Gulf Stream Transport Be Inferred From Sea Level?, Tal Ezer
CCPO Publications
Recent studies by Sturges and collaborators suggest a simple, but powerful, technique to estimate climatic changes in the transport of the Gulf Stream from the difference between the oceanic sea level calculated with a simple wind-driven Rossby wave model and the observed coastal sea level. The hypothesis behind this technique is tested, using 40 years of data (1950 to 1989) obtained from a three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean model forced by observed surface data. The analysis shows that variations in sea level difference between the ocean and the coast are indeed coherent with variations of the Gulf Stream transport for periods shorter …
On The Interpentadal Variability Of The North Atlantic Ocean: Model Simulated Changes In Transport, Meridional Heat Flux And Coastal Sea Level Between 1955-1959 And 1970-1974, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor, Richard J. Greatbatch
On The Interpentadal Variability Of The North Atlantic Ocean: Model Simulated Changes In Transport, Meridional Heat Flux And Coastal Sea Level Between 1955-1959 And 1970-1974, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor, Richard J. Greatbatch
CCPO Publications
Previous studies by Greatbatch et al. (1991) indicate significant changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline structure and circulation between the pentads 1955–1959 and 1970–1974, using data analyzed by Levitus (1989a,b,c) and a simple diagnostic model by Mellor et al. (1982). In this paper these changes are modeled using a three-dimensional, free surface, coastal ocean model. Diagnostic and short-term prognostic calculations are used to infer the dynamically adjusted fields corresponding to the observed hydrographic and wind stress climatology of each pentad. While the results agree with earlier studies indicating that the Gulf Stream was considerably weaker (by about 30 Sv) during …