Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

Marine Infectious Disease Dynamics And Outbreak Thresholds: Contact Transmission, Pandemic Infection, And The Potential Role Of Filter Feeders, Gorka Bidegain, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Tal Ben-Horin, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Disease-causing organisms can have significant impacts on marine species and communities. However, the dynamics that underlie the emergence of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems still lack the equivalent level of description, conceptual understanding, and modeling context routinely present in the terrestrial systems. Here, we propose a theoretical basis for modeling the transmission of marine infectious diseases (MIDs) developed from simple models of the spread of infectious disease. The models represent the dynamics of a variety of host-pathogen systems including those unique to marine systems where transmission of disease is by contact with waterborne pathogens both directly and through filter-feeding processes. …

Understanding The Structure And Functioning Of Polar Pelagic Ecosystems To Predict The Impacts Of Change, E. E. Murphy, R. D. Cavanagh, K. F. Drinkwater, S. M. Grant, J. J. Heymans, E. E. Hofmann, G. L. Hunt Jr., N. M. Johnston

CCPO Publications

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by …

Imber- Research For Marine Sustainability: Synthesis And The Way Forward, Eileen Hofmann, Alida Bundy, Ken Drinkwater, Alberto R. Piola, Bernard Avril, Carol Robinson

CCPO Publications

The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims at developing a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth system and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. This overview of the IMBER project provides a synthesis of project achievements and highlights the value of collaborative, interdisciplinary, integrated research approaches as developed and implemented through …

Updating Maryland's Sea-Level Rise Projections, Donald F. Boesch, Larry P. Atkinson, William C. Boicourt, John D. Boon, Donald R. Cahoon, Robert A. Dalrymple, Tal Ezer, Benjamin P. Horton, Zoe P. Johnson, Robert E. Kopp, Ming Li, Richard H. Moss, Adam Parris, Christopher K. Sommerfield

CCPO Publications

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, "The Free State" is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the …

Hydrodynamic Numerical Ocean Models Support Environmental Studies And Conservation Efforts: From An Arctic Estuary To A Caribbean Coral Reef, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Potential future climate changes, as highlighted recently by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, are likely to have different local impacts in different regions of the globe. Oceanic ecosystems may be especially sensitive to large environmental variation, and they are closely connected to physical changes such as temperature, salinity, currents and sea level. Two examples, from very different environments – one in a cold climate and one in a tropical climate, will be discussed here to show how hydrodynamic numerical models are helping to understand physical-biological interactions and potentially help dealing with future climate changes.

Environmental Variability Effects On Marine Fisheries: Four Case Histories, Eileen E. Hofmann, T. M. Powell

CCPO Publications

The changing nature of marine fisheries requires management approaches that recognize and include ecosystem and environmental effects. Therefore, we review some examples of exploited fishery stocks in which environmental control is a major contributor to structuring the abundance and distribution of the stock. Four examples, taken from studies of northern cod (Gadus morhua), cod and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), are given that clearly illustrate environmental control on the fishery. From these examples, we argue that future management strategies for exploited fisheries must include effects of environmental variability. In particular, management …