Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Assessment Of The Effects Of Climate Change On Evapotranspiration With An Improved Elasticity Method In A Nonhumid Area, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic elasticity is a crucial metric to assess the hydrological influence of climate change. Based on the Budyko equation, this study performed an analytical derivation of the climatic elasticity of evapotranspiration (ET). With this derived elasticity, it is possible to quantitatively separate the impacts of precipitation, air temperature, net radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed on ET in a watershed. This method was applied in the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), located in the center of the Yellow River Watershed of China. The estimated rate of change in ET caused by climatic variables is −10.69 mm/decade, which is close to the …

Quantifying The Impact Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Streamflow In A Semi-Arid Watershed With The Budyko Equation Incorporating Dynamic Vegetation Information, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Understanding hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important for water resource planning and management, especially for water-limited areas. The annual streamflow of the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), the largest sediment source of the Yellow River in China, has decreased significantly over the past 50 years at a rate of 5.2 mm/decade. Using the Budyko equation, this study investigated this decrease with the contributions from climate change and LULCC caused by human activities, which have intensified since 1999 due to China’s Grain for Green Project (GFGP). The Budyko parameter that represents watershed characteristics …

Predicting Combined Effects Of Land Use And Climate Change On River And Stream Salinity, John Olson

John Olson

Breeding For Resilience To Increasing Temperatures: A Field Trial Assessing Genetic Variation In Soft Red Winter Wheat, Kathleen Russell, David Van Sanford

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Breeding for resilience to climate change is a daunting prospect. Crop and climate models tell us that global wheat yields are likely to decline as the climate warms, causing a significant risk to global food security. High temperatures are known to affect crop development yet breeding for tolerance to heat stress is difficult to achieve in field environments. We conducted an active warming study over two years to quantify the effects of heat stress on genetic variation of soft red winter (SRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Forty SRW cultivars and breeding lines were chosen based on marker genotypes at …

Impacts Of Climate Change And Bioenergy Markets On The Profitability Of Slash Pine Pulpwood Production In The Southeastern United States, Andres Susaeta, Pankaj Lal

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this study, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the production of pulpwood and biomass for bioenergy, and the profitability of slash pine stands in the Southeastern United States. We employed the 3-PG (Physiological Processes Predicting Growth) model to determine the effects of future climates on forest growth and integrated it with a stand-level economic model to determine their impacts on optimal forestmanagement. We found that the average production of pulpwood increased for all sites by 7.5 m 3 ha -1 for all climatic scenarios and productivity conditions. In the case of forest biomass for bioenergy, the average …

Modern And Paleoecological Perspectives On A Terrestrial-Marine Linkage In The Falkland Islands, Dulcinea V. Groff

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Falkland Islands are a biodiversity hotspot in the South Atlantic Ocean, with some of the world’s most important populations of seabirds and seals. The impact of climate change on these marine populations and their coastal breeding habitat in the Falklands is unknown. Coastal grasslands of Poa flabellata (tussac grass) form critical breeding habitat for wildlife, but have been heavily degraded by the introduction of livestock in the 17^th century. This dissertation investigates the impacts of global change (climate change, grazing) on P. flabellata and its sensitivity to the fecal nutrient subsidies provided by marine wildlife. Chapter 1 provides …

Climate Change And Curtailment: Evaluating Water Management Practices In The Context Of Changing Runoff Regimes In A Snowmelt-Dominated Basin, Amy L. Steimke, Bangshuai Han, Jodi S. Brandt, Alejandro N. Flores

Geosciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Hydrologic scientists and water resource managers often focus on different facets of flow regimes in changing climates. The objective of this work is to examine potential hydrological changes in the Upper Boise River Basin, Idaho, USA in the context of biophysical variables and their impacts a key variable governing administration of water resources in the region in an integrated way. This snowmelt-dominated, mountainous watershed supplies water to a semi-arid, agriculturally intensive, but rapidly urbanizing, region. Using the Envision integrated modeling framework, we created a hydrological model to simulate hydrological response to the year 2100 using six alternative future climate trajectories. …

Using Cumulative Potential Recharge For Selection Of Gcm Projections To Force Regional Groundwater Models: A Nebraska Sand Hills Example, Nathan R. Rossman, Vitaly A. Zlotnik, Clinton Rowe

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Groundwater recharge (GR) controls vegetation, geomorphology, groundwater, wetlands and surface flow, and ultimately, the ecology and economics of semi-arid regions. Therefore, it is critical to assess hydroclimate model scenarios and the uncertainty in future GR to force regional groundwater models. We use basic statistics of downscaled Global Circulation Model (GCM)-projected cumulative potential GR (GR_p) for selecting representative projections. Cumulative GR_p is the net recharge (difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) rates) over the projection period. The approach is illustrated with an example in the Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), the largest dune …

Assessing Potential Winter Weather Response To Climate Change And Implications For Tourism In The U.S. Great Lakes And Midwest, Natalie Chin, Kyuhun Byun, Alan F. Hamlet, Keith A. Cherkauer

School of Agricultural & Biological Engineering Faculty Publications

Study Region: Eight U.S. states bordering the North American Laurentian Great Lakes.

Study Focus: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulations, based on data from an en- semble of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), were used to quantify potential climate change impacts on winter weather and hydrology in the study re- gion and understand implications for its tourism sector.

New Hydrologic Insights for the Region: By the 2080s, climate change could result in winters that are shorter by over a month, reductions of over a month in days …

Coastal Wetland Dynamics Under Sea-Level Rise And Wetland Restoration In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Using Bayesian Multilevel Models And A Web Tool, Tyler Hardy

Master's Theses

There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration …

High Net Loss Of Intertidal Wetland Coverage In A Maine Estuary By Year 2100, Jack R. Mclachlan

Biology and Ecology Faculty Scholarship

Rising sea levels and coastal land use are predicted to synergistically impact coastal wetlands by reducing their extent and ecosystem functioning through a process known as “coastal squeeze”. Impervious surfaces associated with coastal development prevent the natural process of wetland migration, whereby intertidal wetland area is lost at its seaward edge to rising low water lines, but is replaced by eroding uplands and accumulating new wetland at its landward edge. As these constructed surfaces prevent the replacement of lost wetland, intertidal wetlands are “squeezed” by rising sea levels until they disappear. This study uses geographic information system (GIS) to predict …

Review Of Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards And Risk Reduction In The Modern World, Kira H. Hamman

Numeracy

Timothy H. Dixon. 2017. Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards and Risk Reduction in the Modern World. (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press) 300 pp. ISBN 978-1108113663.

In Curbing Catastrophe, Timothy H. Dixon explores commonalities among natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the meltdown at Fukushima. He identifies communication failure between scientists and policy makers as a major culprit in the devastation that results from such events and offers strategies for improving that communication. He includes optional in-depth scientific and quantitative examinations of the events and the resulting devastation, making the book appropriate for use …

Evaluating 21st Century Climate Change For Bolivia: A Comprehensive Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Using The Wrf Regional Climate Model, Azar Mohammad Abadi

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Bolivia is a low-latitude, developing country at grave risk for the effects of human-induced climate changes. This means evaluating the consequences of projected future climate changes is of significant importance. Unfortunately, the complex topography and high elevation of much of the country pose particular challenges, as these effects cannot be suitably resolved at the approximately 100 km spatial resolution of current global climate models (GCM). Therefore, a comprehensive suite of high-resolution climate change simulations was made focused on Bolivia are run using three different GCMs with three different emission scenarios for each to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) …

Climate And Plant Controls On Soil Organic Matter In Coastal Wetlands, Michael J. Osland, Christopher A. Gabler, James B. Grace, Richard H. Day, Meagan L. Mccoy, Jennie L. Mcleod, Andrew S. From, Nicholas M. Enwright, Laura C. Feher, Camille L. Stagg

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems on Earth. Long‐term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within 10 …

Relationship Between Ocean-Atmospheric Climate Variables And Regional Streamflow Of The Conterminous United States, Swastik Bhandari, Ajay Kalra, Kazi Tamaddun, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Understanding the interconnections between oceanic-atmospheric climate variables and regional streamflow of the conterminous United States may aid in improving regional long lead-time streamflow forecasting. The current research evaluates the time-lagged relationship between streamflow of six geographical regions defined from National Climate Assessment and sea surface temperature (SST), 500-mbar geopotential height (Z500), 500-mbar specific humidity (SH500), and 500-mbar east-west wind (U500) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean using singular value decomposition (SVD). The spatio-temporal correlation between streamflow and SST was developed first from SVD and thus obtained correlation was later associated with Z500, SH500, and U500 separately to evaluate the …

A Sedimentological Record Of Early Miocene Ice Advance And Retreat, And-2a Drill Hole, Mcmurdo Sound, Antarctica, B. D. Field, G. H. Browne, Christopher R. Fielding, Fabio Florindo, David M. Harwood, Shelley Judge, Lawrence Krissek, Kurt S. Panter, Sandra Passchier, Stephen Pekar, Sonia Sandroni, Franco M. Talarico

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The lowest 501 m (∼1139–638 m) of the AND-2A core from southern McMurdo Sound is the most detailed and complete record of early Miocene sediments in Antarctica and indicates substantial variability in Antarctic ice sheet activity during early Miocene time. There are two main pulses of diamictite accumulation recorded in the core, and three significant intervals with almost no coarse clasts. Each diamictite package comprises several sequences consistent with ice advance-retreat episodes.

The oldest phase of diamictite deposition, Composite Sequence 1 (CS1), has evidence for grounded ice at the drill site and has been dated around 20.2–20.1 Ma. It likely …

A Quantitative Analysis Of The Effects Of Urbanization, Mesophication And Prescribed Burns On Oak Woodlands In The Chicago Metropolitan Area, Chad Populorum

Celebration of Learning

Urban expansion has had devastating impacts on forest ecosystems, especially within the past century. Human attempts to dominate nature have diminished natural disturbance regimes, which have maintained the biodiversity and historic composition of these ecosystems. Fires have been a prominent force in maintaining the structure of oak, hickory and other heliophytic (sun loving and fire-adapted) forest systems. Human induced fire suppression has led to mesophication across North America. Mesophication is the transition from drier conditions with open canopies to wetter conditions with closed canopies. These new conditions decrease the survival rates of these important species and begin to favor mesophytic …

Developing A Risk Assessment Protocol To Quantify Distribution And Uptake Of Persistent Organic Pollutants In Glacial Outflows, Kimberley Rain Miner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Pollutants released by industrialized nations between 1960 and 2004 have been transported northward through atmospheric processes and deposited into glaciated alpine ecosystems. Many of these chemicals retain their original structure and are absorbed into the biota thousands of miles away from where they were originally utilized. With a warming climate increasing the melt of alpine glaciers, these glaciers may be introducing growing amounts of toxins into the watershed. While studies have demonstrated the existence of resident pollutants within glaciated ecosystems, no one has developed a risk assessment to identify sources and quantity of risk posed by these compounds when released …

Is The Paris Agreement Already Poised For Failure? - Discerning How Impactful The Clean Power Plan's Fate Is On The Latest Global Climate Initiative, Shawn Eric Mckenzie

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

Spatial Patterns Of Precipitation Trends In The Continental United States, 1950-2016, Shayne O'Brien

Master's Theses

Identifying trends in aspects of meteorology is becoming increasingly important to understanding how climate can be expected to change, and how those affected may plan contingencies. Analyzing spatial patterns of precipitation trends allows for associations to be discovered to better understand regional climatology. For this study, daily precipitation data were collected from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) at stations across the continental United States, with selection based on distance from each other within a state, as well as percent completeness of observation data. Two stations per state were selected, with some exceptions for …

Regional Trends In Early-Monsoon Rainfall Over Vietnam And Ccsm4 Attribution, Rong Li, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Brendan Buckley, Jin-Ho Yoon, Changrae Cho

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) …

Ice Core Records Of West Greenland Melt And Climate Forcing, H.P. Marshall, T. Meehan

CGISS Publications and Presentations

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal …

Management Of An Urban Stormwater System Using Projected Future Scenarios Of Climate Models: A Watershed-Based Modeling Approach, Ranjeet Thakali, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad, Kamal Qaiser

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Anticipating a proper management needs for urban stormwater due to climate change is becoming a critical concern to water resources managers. In an effort to identify best management practices and understand the probable future climate scenarios, this study used high-resolution climate model data in conjunction with advanced statistical methods and computer simulation. Climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) were used to calculate the design storm depths for the Gowan Watershed of Las Vegas Valley, Nevada. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was used for hydrological modeling. …

Carbon Flux And Weathering Processes In Icelandic Glacial-Fed Rivers, Allison Quiroga

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

An investigation into the carbon dynamics and weathering processes occurring in Icelandic glacial-fed streams was conducted during the spring to summer seasonal transition in June of 2017. Four major outlet rives were sampled from the glaciers of Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, Sólheimajökull, and Falljökull. Markarfljót, the major river that Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, and many other glaciers drain into, was also sampled. Longitudinal sampling occurred at all sites to capture downstream trends in the hydrogeochemistry and carbon dynamics. Distinct differences in geochemistry between glacier surface meltwater, sub-glacial waters, pro-glacial lake water, and post-mixed downstream samples were evident in the data. Glacier surface streams were …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

Irrigated Agriculture And Future Climate Change Effects On Groundwater Recharge, Northern High Plains Aquifer, Usa, Zachary H. Lauffenburger, Jason J. Gurdak, Chris Hobza, Duane Woodward

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Spectral Signatures Of Submicron Scale Light-Absorbing Impurities In Snow And Ice Using Hyperspectral Microscopy, Farra Dal Anna, Susan Kaspari, James Beach, Thomas D. Bucheli, Michael Schaepman, Margit Schwikowski

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Light-absorbing impurities (LAI) can darken snow and ice surfaces, reduce snow/ice albedo and accelerate melt. Efforts to allocate the relative contribution of different LAI to snow/ice albedo reductions have been limited by uncertainties in the optical properties of LAI. We developed a new method to measure LAI spectral reflectance at the submicron scale by modifying a Hyperspectral Imaging Microscope Spectrometer (HIMS). We present the instrument’s internal calibration, and the overall small influence of a particle’s orientation on its measured reflectance spectrum. We validated this new method through the comparison with a field spectroradiometer by measuring different standard materials. Measurements with …

Quantifying Excess Deaths Related To Heatwaves Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multicountry Time Series Modelling Study, Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Ala Overcenco, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Honda, Yasushi Honda, Yasushi, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Young Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Michelle L. Bell, Ben G. Armstrong, Ebi, Kristie L. Ebi, Kristie L., Shilu Tong

Articles

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of …

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …