Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Next-Generation Ensemble Projections Reveal Higher Climate Risks For Marine Ecosystems, Derek P. Tittensor, Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Gregory L. Britten, Matthias Büchner

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation …