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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Toward “Optimal” Integration Of Terrestrial Biosphere Models, Christopher R. Schwalm, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Joshua B. Fisher, Anna M. Michalak, Kevin Bowman, Philippe Ciais, Robert Cook, Bassil El-Masri, Daniel Hayes, Maoyi Huang, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Anthony W. King, Hiumin Lei, Junjie Liu, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Jaifu Mao, Shushi Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Daniel Ricciuto, Kevin Schaefer, Xiaoying Shi, Bo Tao, Hanqin Tian, Weile Wang, Yaxing Wei, Jia Yang, Ning Zeng
Toward “Optimal” Integration Of Terrestrial Biosphere Models, Christopher R. Schwalm, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Joshua B. Fisher, Anna M. Michalak, Kevin Bowman, Philippe Ciais, Robert Cook, Bassil El-Masri, Daniel Hayes, Maoyi Huang, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Anthony W. King, Hiumin Lei, Junjie Liu, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Jaifu Mao, Shushi Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Daniel Ricciuto, Kevin Schaefer, Xiaoying Shi, Bo Tao, Hanqin Tian, Weile Wang, Yaxing Wei, Jia Yang, Ning Zeng
Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu
Multimodel ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multiscale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve (“one model-one vote”) integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (−1.16 versus −1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change …