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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Short-Tailed Temperature Distributions Over North America And Implications For Future Changes In Extremes, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin
Short-Tailed Temperature Distributions Over North America And Implications For Future Changes In Extremes, Paul C. Loikith, J. David Neelin
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Some regions of North America exhibit nonnormal temperature distributions. Shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails are a special subset of these cases, with potentially meaningful implications for future changes in extreme warm temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. Locations exhibiting shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails would experience a greater increase in extreme warm temperature exceedances than a location with a Gaussian or long warm-side tail under a simple uniform warm shift in the distribution. Here we identify regions exhibiting such behavior over North America and demonstrate the effect of a simple warm shift on changes in extreme warm temperature exceedances. Some locations exceed the 95th percentile …
Surface Temperature Probability Distributions In The Narccap Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, And Results, Paul C. Loikith, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, Jinwon Kim, J. David Neelin, Benjamin R. Lintner, Seth Mcginnis, Chris A. Mattmann, Linda O. Mears
Surface Temperature Probability Distributions In The Narccap Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, And Results, Paul C. Loikith, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, Jinwon Kim, J. David Neelin, Benjamin R. Lintner, Seth Mcginnis, Chris A. Mattmann, Linda O. Mears
Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations
Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A surface temperature dataset combining gridded station observations and reanalysis is employed as the primary reference. Temperature biases are documented across the distribution, focusing on the median and tails. Temperature variance is generally higher in the RCMs than reference, while skewness is reasonably simulated in winter over the entire domain and over the western United States and Canada in summer. Substantial differences in skewness …