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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Focus On Extreme Events And The Carbon Cycle, Chuixiang Yi, Elise Pendall, Philippe Ciais
Focus On Extreme Events And The Carbon Cycle, Chuixiang Yi, Elise Pendall, Philippe Ciais
Publications and Research
Climate physics indicates that warming climate is a likely cause of extreme weather and more frequent and intense climate events. These extreme events can disrupt terrestrial carbon dynamics dramatically by triggering ecological disturbances and potentially forcing climate–carbon feedbacks. In this paper we synthesize the findings of 26 papers that focus on collecting evidence and developing knowledge of how extreme events disturb terrestrial carbon dynamics
Up-To-Date Probabilistic Temperature Climatologies, Nir Krakauer, Naresh Devineni
Up-To-Date Probabilistic Temperature Climatologies, Nir Krakauer, Naresh Devineni
Publications and Research
With ongoing global warming, climatologies based on average past temperatures are increasingly recognized as imperfect guides for current conditions, yet there is no consensus on alternatives. Here, we compare several approaches to deriving updated expected values of monthly mean temperatures, including moving average, exponentially weighted moving average, and piecewise linear regression. We go beyond most previous work by presenting updated climate normals as probability distributions rather than only point estimates, enabling estimation of the changing likelihood of hot and cold extremes. We show that there is a trade-off between bias and variance in these approaches, but that bias can be …