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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Comparison Of Periodic Autoregressive And Dynamic Factor Models In Intraday Energy Demand Forecasting, Thomas Mestekemper, Goeran Kauermann, Michael Smith
A Comparison Of Periodic Autoregressive And Dynamic Factor Models In Intraday Energy Demand Forecasting, Thomas Mestekemper, Goeran Kauermann, Michael Smith
Michael Stanley Smith
We suggest a new approach for forecasting energy demand at an intraday resolution. Demand in each intraday period is modeled using semiparametric regression smoothing to account for calendar and weather components. Residual serial dependence is captured by one of two multivariate stationary time series models, with dimension equal to the number of intraday periods. These are a periodic autoregression and a dynamic factor model. We show the benefits of our approach in the forecasting of district heating demand in a steam network in Germany and aggregate electricity demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In both studies, accounting for weather …
Bayesian Approaches To Copula Modelling, Michael S. Smith
Bayesian Approaches To Copula Modelling, Michael S. Smith
Michael Stanley Smith
Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been only limited use of Bayesian approaches in the formulation and estimation of copula models. This article aims to address this shortcoming in two ways. First, to introduce copula models and aspects of copula theory that are especially relevant for a Bayesian analysis. Second, to outline Bayesian approaches to formulating and estimating copula models, and their advantages over alternative methods. Copulas covered include Archimedean, copulas constructed …