Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Development Of A Ground Based Remote Sensing Approach For Direct Evaluation Of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction, Bomidi Lakshmi Madhavan, Yuzhe He, Yonghua Wu, Barry Gross, Fred Moshary, Samir Ahmed

Publications and Research

The possible interaction and modification of cloud properties due to aerosols is one of the most poorly understood mechanisms within climate studies, resulting in the most significant uncertainty as regards radiation budgeting. In this study, we explore direct ground based remote sensing methods to assess the Aerosol-Cloud Indirect Effect directly, as space-borne retrievals are not directly suitable for simultaneous aerosol/cloud retrievals. To illustrate some of these difficulties, a statistical assessment of existing multispectral imagers on geostationary (e.g., GOES)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite retrievals of the Cloud Droplet Effective Radius (Reff) showed significant biases especially at larger solar zenith angles, …

A New Nonlinear Analytical Model For Canopy Flow Over A Forested Hill, Weiguo Wang, Chuixiang Yi

Publications and Research

A new nonlinear analytical model for canopy flow over gentle hills is presented. This model is established based on the assumption that three major forces (pressure gradient, Reynolds stress gradient, and nonlinear canopy drag) within canopy are in balance for gentle hills under neutral conditions. The momentum governing equation is closed by the velocity-squared law. This new model has many advantages over the model developed by Finnigan and Belcher (2004, hereafter referred to as FB04) in predicting canopy wind velocity profiles in forested hills in that: (1) this model predictions are more realistic because the surface drag can be taken …

Halogen Activation Via Interactions With Environmental Ice And Snow In The Polar Lower Troposphere And Other Regions, J. P. D. Abbatt, J. L. Thomas, K. Abrahamsson, Chris Boxe, A. Granfors, A. E. Jones, M. D. King, A. Saiz-Lopez, P. B. Shepson, J. Sodeau, D. W. Toohey, C. Toubin, R. Von Glasow, S. N. Wren, X. Yang

Publications and Research

The role of ice in the formation of chemically active halogens in the environment requires a full understanding because of its role in atmospheric chemistry, including controlling the regional atmospheric oxidizing capacity in specific situations. In particular, ice and snow are important for facilitating multiphase oxidative chemistry and as media upon which marine algae live. This paper reviews the nature of environmental ice substrates that participate in halogen chemistry, describes the reactions that occur on such substrates, presents the field evidence for ice-mediated halogen activation, summarizes our best understanding of ice-halogen activation mechanisms, and describes the current state of modeling …

Optimal Control Of Katabatic Flows Within Canopies, Hongbin Chen, Chuixiang Yi

Publications and Research

What slope angle favours the development of katabatic flow is still an open question. Some studies have clarified that katabatic winds are stronger on steep slopes, while others have demonstrated that katabatic winds are stronger on gentle slopes. Here, we explore the control mechanisms of katabatic flow using a simplified theoretical model in an attempt to clarify the causes of the paradoxical findings. Our results indicate that optimal conditions for katabatic flows within canopies are synergistically controlled by terrain angle, canopy structure and thermal condition through a simple equation:

L_cV_T^-2 sin³ α = b,

where …

Estimating Climate Trends: Application To United States Plant Hardiness Zones, Nir Krakauer

Publications and Research

The United States Department of Agriculture classifies plant hardiness zones based on mean annual minimum temperatures over some past period (currently 1976–2005). Since temperatures are changing, these values may benefit from updating. I outline a multistep methodology involving imputation of missing station values, geostatistical interpolation, and time series smoothing to update a climate variable’s expected value compared to a climatology period and apply it to estimating annual minimum temperature change over the coterminous United States. I show using hindcast experiments that trend estimation gives more accurate predictions of minimum temperatures 1-2 years in advance compared to the previous 30 years’ …

Hildebrandt Teaches Lessons About Tornadoes, Aldemaro Romero Jr.

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.