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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications
Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …
Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications
1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …
Colorado's Large Snow Events' Impact On Tree Ring Growth And Dillon Reservoir, Katrina Leona Marzetta
Colorado's Large Snow Events' Impact On Tree Ring Growth And Dillon Reservoir, Katrina Leona Marzetta
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Meteorological observations from 1894 through 2010 suggest that 17 historically large snow events occurred in the mountains of Colorado within Denver's water supply region. Of these 16 events, 14 can be identified in precipitation sensitive tree ring records as positive climatic pointer years. If these storms were to occur today, they would have the potential to fill reservoirs in Denver Water's supply system, even after years of sustained drought. These "drought busters" have the potential to refill Dillon Reservoir by increasing average yearly inflow up to 146% of the previous year's inflow. Such drought busters can help Denver recover from …
Spatial And Interannual Variability Of Dissolved Organic Matter In The Kolyma River, East Siberia, Observed Using Satellite Imagery, Claire G. Griffin, Karen E. Frey, John Rogan, Robert M. Holmes
Spatial And Interannual Variability Of Dissolved Organic Matter In The Kolyma River, East Siberia, Observed Using Satellite Imagery, Claire G. Griffin, Karen E. Frey, John Rogan, Robert M. Holmes
Geography
The Kolyma River basin in northeastern Siberia, the sixth largest river basin draining to the Arctic Ocean, contains vast reserves of carbon in Pleistocene-aged permafrost soils. Permafrost degradation, as a result of climate change, may cause shifts in riverine biogeochemistry as this old source of organic matter is exposed. Satellite remote sensing offers an opportunity to complement and extrapolate field sampling of dissolved organic matter in this expansive and remote region. We develop empirically based algorithms that estimate chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Kolyma River and its major tributaries in the vicinity of …