Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Time Domain Probabilistic Risk Assessment:, George H. Baker, Charles T. C. Mo

George H Baker

For critical facilities, survivability and reconstitution in stressful environments generated by electromagnetic transients, sabotage, terrorist activity, military conflict, or Murphy’s laws are issues of concern. Critical fixed facilities are likely to be functionally complex and their system-wide failure probabilities, modes, and consequences are often not obvious. To analyze and quantify survivability, existing probabilistic risk assessment tools usually provide a “snapshot” of failure modes at a single point of time for certain initiating conditions. Likewise, elaborate physics models developed to treat weapons effects on structures and individual functional components compute effects at a single time point.

We have developed a tool …