Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Forecasting Covid-19 With Temporal Hierarchies And Ensemble Methods, Li Shandross

Masters Theses

Infectious disease forecasting efforts underwent rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing guidance for pandemic response and about potential future trends. Yet despite their importance, short-term forecasting models often struggled to produce accurate real-time predictions of this complex and rapidly changing system. This gap in accuracy persisted into the pandemic and warrants the exploration and testing of new methods to glean fresh insights.

In this work, we examined the application of the temporal hierarchical forecasting (THieF) methodology to probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 incident hospital admissions in the United States. THieF is an innovative forecasting technique that aggregates time-series data into …

Estimation Of Causal Effects In Complex Clustered Data, Joshua R. Nugent

Doctoral Dissertations

Analysis of clustered data from randomized trials or observational data often poses theoretical and practical statistical challenges, including but not limited to small numbers of independent units, many adjustment variables, continuous exposures, and/or differential clustering across trial arms. Further, commonly-used parametric methods rely on assumptions that may be violated in practice. Motivated by three scientific questions in public health, methods are developed and/or demonstrated for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. In Chapter 1, methods are elaborated for a cluster randomized trial (CRT) with missing individual-level data at baseline and follow-up, a complex sampling strategy, and limited number of clusters. Chapter …

Methods For Making Policy-Relevant Forecasts Of Infectious Disease Incidence, Stephen A. Lauer

Doctoral Dissertations

Infectious diseases place an enormous burden on the people of the developing world and their governments. When, where, and how to allocate resources in order to slow the spread of a virus or deal with the aftermath of an outbreak is often the responsibility of local public health officials. In this thesis, we develop statistical methods for forecasting future incidence of infectious diseases and estimating the effects of interventions designed to reduce future incidence, bearing in mind the needs and concerns of those public health officials. While most infectious disease forecasting models focus on short-term horizons (i.e. weeks or …

Estimating Prevalence From Complex Surveys, Sophie O'Brien

Masters Theses

Massachusetts passed legislation in the fall of 2012 to allow the construction of three casinos and a slot parlor in the state. The prevalence of problem gambling in the state and in areas where casinos will be constructed is of particular interest. The goal is to evaluate the change in prevalence after construction of the casinos, using a multi-mode address based sample survey. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate and describe ways of using statistical inference to estimates prevalence rates in finite populations. Four methods were considered in an attempt to evaluate the prevalence of problem gambling in …