Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Sea Surface Temperature Rises Shift Migration Patterns Due To Ecosystem Changes, Alexia Skrbic, Hesham El-Askary

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The continuing climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems, specifically oceans which are declining and food webs are being altered by the increase of greenhouse gases. The increase of the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is increasing sea surface temperature of the world’s oceans. Certain organisms lower on the food chain like phytoplankton and zooplankton are directly affected by the warming which alters how they process nutrients and their productivity. The limited amount of these primary producers in the oceans and specifically the location they inhabit directly affects all the organisms above them on the food chain. Several marine animals …

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …

Seasonal Glacial Meltwater Contributions To Surface Water In The Bolivian Andes: A Case Study Using Environmental Tracers, Zack Guido, Jennifer C. Mcintosh, Shirley A. Papuga, Thomas Meixner

Environmental Science and Geology Faculty Research Publications

Study region: The Cordoriri watershed and vicinity in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia, South America

Study focus: Recent warming has contributed to substantial reductions in glaciers in many regions around the globe. Melting of these glaciers alters the timing and magnitude of stream flows and diminishes water resources accumulated in past climates. These changes are especially acute in regions with small glaciers and problematic for populations relying on surface water. In Bolivia, most glaciers are less than 0.5 km² and about 2 million people draw water in part from glacier-fed watersheds. Sparse monitoring, however, has limited estimates of …

Agenda: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment, The Wilderness Society, Protect Our Winters

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

In partnership with the Getches-Wilkinson Center, join The Wilderness Society and Protect Our Winters for an interactive presentation about energy development and climate impacts on public lands.

This event was held on Wednesday, October 12, 2016, 5:30 - 7:30 p.m., in the University of Colorado Law School, Wolf Law Building, Wittemyer Courtroom.

Slides: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, Jim Ramey, Lindsay Bourgoine

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

Presenters:

Jim Ramey, The Wilderness Society

Lindsay Bourgoine, Protect Our Winters

56 slides

Century-Long Increasing Trend And Variability Of Dissolved Organic Carbon Export From The Mississippi River Basin Driven By Natural And Anthropogenic Forcing, Wei Ren, Hanqin Tian, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven E. Lohrenz, Charles S. Hopkinson, Wei-Jen Huang, Jia Yang, Bo Tao, Shufen Pan, Ruoying He

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

There has been considerable debate as to how natural forcing and anthropogenic activities alter the timing and magnitude of the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the coastal ocean, which has ramifications for the ocean carbon budget, land-ocean interactions, and coastal life. Here we present an analysis of DOC export from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901–2010 as influenced by changes in climate, land use and management practices, atmospheric CO₂, and nitrogen deposition, through the integration of observational data with a coupled hydrologic/biogeochemical land model. Model simulations show that DOC export in the …

Methane Emissions From Global Rice Fields: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, And Environmental Controls, Bowen Zhang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, Bo Tao, Chaoqun Lu, Jia Yang, Kamaljit Banger, Shufen Pan

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Given the importance of the potential positive feedback between methane (CH₄) emissions and climate change, it is critical to accurately estimate the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of CH₄ emissions from global rice fields and better understand the underlying determinants governing the emissions. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model in combination with satellite-derived contemporary inundation area to quantify the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of CH₄ emissions from global rice fields and attribute the environmental controls of CH₄ emissions during 1901–2010. Our study estimated that CH₄ emissions from global rice fields varied from 18.3 ± …

Icelandic Fisheries: Scenario Planning For Climate Change, Tara Sorrels

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study aimed to develop an understanding of how a scenario planning process could be used to assist businesses to adapt to climate change. The focus of this study was on the Icelandic fishing industry since Iceland is experiencing firsthand climate change impacts. Mitigation strategies are the main focus in climate change research, but this study focused on a possible adaptation method that requires changing management practices in order to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy. Tours of Icelandic fisheries and interviews with individuals within the Icelandic fishing industry were conducted to assess the current adaptive capacity …

Using Photovoice To Understand Climate Change Adaptation In Rural Ontario, Kylie Hissa

Geography and Environmental Studies Major Research Papers

The examination of community adaptation and resilience approaches to address the threats of climate change in rural Ontario is becoming increasingly important in emergency management and preparedness. Community engagement becomes critical in this regard, as local experiences partly influence perceptions of climate change risks within municipalities. Photovoice is a community-based participatory research methodology that empowers participants to document their perceptions and understandings of a particular issue through the use of visual images. This technique was undertaken to understand the impacts of the F3 tornado that hit the community of Goderich, Ontario in 2011 and capture their member’s perceptions on disaster …

The International Whaling Commission—Beyond Whaling, Andrew J. Wright, Mark P. Simmonds, Barbara Galletti Vernazzani

Environment and Nature Conservation Collection

Since its establishment in 1946 as the international body intended to manage whaling, the International Whaling Commission (IWC) has expanded its areas of interest to ensure the wider conservation of whales. Several key conservation topics have been taken forward under its auspices including climate change, chemical and noise pollution, marine debris and whale watching. Work on each of these topics at the IWC has grown substantially since the 1990s and remains ongoing. Important developments were the establishment of the Standing Working Group on Environmental Concerns in 1996 and the IWC’s Conservation Committee in 2003. Trying to address this diverse set …

Climate Change Is The Reason We Need For Resiliency, Michael Allen

News Items

Guest editorial by Michael Allen concerning the draft of the Norfolk Vision 2100 by the Norfolk Planning Department.

The Science Of Sea Level Rise And The Impact Of The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

The Influence Of Model Resolution On The Simulated Sensitivity Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity To Sea Surface Temperature, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Timothy Larow, Hiroyuki Murakami, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Linking In-Situ Data With Remote Sensing To Analyze Tropical Glacier Stability And Retreat In The Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Chandler H. Santos

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Glaciers are a major source of freshwater around the world, but they are melting at an increased rate due to atmospheric warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change. In addition to temperature increases, light-absorbing particulates on glaciers also are contributing to glacial melt. This research examines how black carbon, released into the air through partial combustion of biofuels, is affecting the surface albedo of glaciers. I also delineate possible sources of black carbon in the Cordillera Blanca region of Peru. Ground data were collected each year from 2011 to 2013 during the local dry season. Effective black carbon (eBC) values were …

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …

Steinhilber Outlines Odu's Multidisciplinary Sea Level Rise Research At Virginia Beach Forum, Brendan O'Hallarn

News Items

No abstract provided.

Analyzing Spatial Variability Of Social Preference For The Everglades Restoration In The Face Of Climate Change, Abu Hena Mustafa Kamal Sikder

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The South Florida Everglades is a unique ecosystem. Intensive water management in the system has facilitated agricultural, urban, and economic development. The Everglades offers a variety of ecosystem services (ES) to the people living in this region. Nevertheless, the ecosystem is under imminent threat of climate change, which would alter the way water is managed today and ultimately affect the ES offered by the system. On the other hand, substantial restoration is underway that aims to restore the Everglades closer to its historic condition. This research tried to map the public’s preference for Everglades restoration. Using a geocoded discrete-choice survey …

Agenda: Coping With Water Scarcity In River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned From Shared Experiences, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Water scarcity is increasingly dominating headlines throughout the world. In the southwestern USA, the looming water shortages on the Colorado River system and the unprecedented drought in California are garnering the greatest attention. Similar stories of scarcity and crisis can be found across the globe, suggesting an opportunity for sharing lessons and innovations. For example, the Colorado River and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin likely can share many lessons, as both systems were over-allocated, feature multiple jurisdictions, face similar climatic risks and drought stresses, and struggle to balance human demands with environmental needs. In this conference we cast our net broadly, exploring …

Climate Ready Boston: Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Projections For Boston, The Boston Research Advisory Group Report, Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, Robyn Hannigan, Rebecca Herst, Avery Palardy

School for the Environment Publications

This report summarizes the current understanding of the local factors that influence Boston’s future exposure to climate change risks. The following four risk factors were considered most relevant to Boston and are therefore evaluated in this report: sea-level rise, extreme precipitation, coastal storms and extreme temperatures. For each risk factor, a team of scientific experts, comprised of a team leader and three or more team members, was selected to evaluate and summarize the available information contained in both grey (reports, conference proceedings and the like) and peer-reviewed literature. Each team met independently between October 2015 and January 2016, and team …

U.S. Dot Quantification Initiative: Dot’S Collaboration With The Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Pilot, Alan Strasser

May 18, 2016: The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads

PDF of powerpoint presentation given at the workshop "The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads: An Appraisal of the Projects Underway" on May 18, 2016 at the Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, 1030 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA 23435.

Quantifying The Impacts Of Climate Change To The Department Of The Interior, Jonathan Steele, Christian Crowley

May 18, 2016: The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads

PDF of powerpoint presentation given at the workshop "The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads: An Appraisal of the Projects Underway" on May 18, 2016 at the Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, 1030 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA 23435

An Appraisal Of The Actuaries’ Climate Risk Index, Stephen Lee Kolk

May 18, 2016: The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads

PDF of powerpoint presentation given at the workshop "The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads: An Appraisal of the Projects Underway" on May 18, 2016 at the Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, 1030 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA 23435

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

GSCE Faculty Publications

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

Geography Faculty Publications

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …

Symbiont Type And Photophysiology Of Acropora Loripes And Platygyra Daedalea Under Future Scenarios Of Rising Ocean Temperatures And Pco2, Lauren Howe-Kerr

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral cover is declining at an alarming rate, and it is estimated that 60% of reefs worldwide may be lost by 2030. Elevated seawater temperatures and ocean acidification are contributing to an increase in the frequency and severity of bleaching events. These events disrupt the symbiosis between corals and their photosynthetic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium spp). Relatively little is known about the ability of corals to acclimatize to changing environmental conditions or whether the rate of climate change is too fast for corals to keep up, limiting the accuracy of future predictions for reef resilience. However, the ability of some coral species …

The Promise Of An Energy Tracker Curriculum For Promoting Home-School Connections And Youth Agency In Climate Action, Elizabeth M. Walsh, Derek Jenkins, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Formal classroom learning experiences that support sustainable behaviors outside the classroom necessarily must bridge students’ home and school lives, as knowledge and practice learned in the classroom is implemented outside of school. To this end, we study the impact of the Green Ninja Energy Tracker curriculum, which uses students’ home energy data in the classroom to promote engagement in climate change and conservation behaviors. Data is drawn from class observations, a focus group, and pre- and post- surveys of a pilot implementation of this curriculum in a diverse 12th-grade Earth Science classroom at an alternative school. We investigate what factors …

Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova

Publications and Research

Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …

Intergovernmental Pilot Program, Ray Toll

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

No abstract provided.

Twentieth-Century Warming Preserved In A Geladaindong Mountain Ice Core, Central Tibetan Plateau, Yulan Zhang, Shichang Kang, Bjorn Grigholm, Yongjun Zhang, Susan Kaspari, Uwe Morgenstern, Jiawen Ren, Dahe Qin, Paul A. Mayewski, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Mika Sillanpää, Margit Schwikowski, Feng Chen

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

High-resolution δ¹⁸O records from a Geladaindong mountain ice core spanning the period 1477-1982 were used to investigate past temperature variations in the Yangtze River source region of the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). Annual ice-core δ¹⁸O records were positively correlated with temperature data from nearby meteorological stations, suggesting that the δ¹⁸O record represented the air temperature in the region. A generally increasing temperature trend over the past 500 years was identified, with amplified warming during the 20th century. A colder stage, spanning before the 1850s, was found to represent the Little Ice Age with colder …

Variability In The Carbon Storage Of Seagrass Habitats And Its Implications For Global Estimates Of Blue Carbon Ecosystem Service [Dataset], Paul Lavery, Miguel-Angel Mateo, Oscar Serrano, Mohammad Rozaimi

Research Datasets

The dataset compiles published data (in Lavery et al. 2013, PLoS ONE 8(9): e73748. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073748) on biogeochemical variables (organic matter, organic carbon and CO3 contents, and stable carbon isotope signatures of the organic carbon) in sediment core from seagrass meadows in Australia. The cores studied were up to 29 cm long, and ecompass tropical, subtropical and temperate seagrass meadows in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Enquiries about the dataset may be sent to Paul Lavery p.lavery@ecu.edu.au.