Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Climate Change In The Piscataqua/Great Bay Region: Past, Present, And Future, Cameron P. Wake, Elizabeth Burakowski, Eric Kelsey, Katharine Hayhoe, Anne Stoner, Chris Watson, Ellen Douglas

The Sustainability Institute Publications

Earth ’s climate changes. It always has and always will. However, an extensive body of scientific evidence indicates that human activities are now a significant force driving change in the Earth’s climate system. This report describes how the climate of the Piscataqua/Great Bay region of coastal New Hampshire in the United States has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region will be affected by human activities that are warming the planet.

Overall, the region has been getting warmer and wetter over the last century, and the rate of change has increased over the last …

Brief 2: Overcoming Fragmented Governance: The Case Of Climate Change And The Mdgs, Oran R. Young

Governance and Sustainability Issue Brief Series

Fragmented governance hampers efforts to address tightly coupled challenges, like coming to grips with climate change and fulfilling the Millennium Development Goals. The way forward is to launch programmatic initiatives focusing on adaptation to climate change and the transition to a green economy that appeal to many separate bodies as win-win opportunities.

Climate Change And The Conservation Of Archaeological Sites: A Review Of Impacts Theory, Caithleen Daly

Articles

This article identifies the current state of knowledge in the literature regarding the possible impacts of future climatic change on archaeological sites and ensembles. Drawing on the literature review a matrix of potential impacts is collated to provide a simplified overview. This theoretical ‘menu’ is then tested by applying it to a vulnerability assessment of the World Heritage site of Skellig Michael in Ireland. The case study results reveal some knowledge gaps, particularly in regard to the impacts of climate change on buried archaeological remains.

Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …

The Potential For Indicators In The Management Of Climate Change Impacts On Cultural Heritage, Caithleen Daly

Conference papers

The global scale and unpredictable nature of climate change impacts on cultural heritage poses a challenge for conservation management. This article explores the potential of indicators as an aid for decision makers in the heritage sector. The author proposes a new indicator tool for addressing long-term stone recession impacts that may be related to climate change. The indicator is being installed at two World Heritage sites in Ireland but no results are available. The prototype was developed during doctoral research at the Technological University of Dublin.

Pakistan’S Two-Stage Monsoon And Links With The Recent Climate Change, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert Davies, Wan Ru Huang, Robert R. Gillies

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large‐scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a premonsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July premonsoon trough phase, …

Socioeconomic Impacts Of Climate Change On Rural Communities In The United States, Pankaj Lal, Janaki Alavalapati, D. Evan Mercer

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

No abstract provided.

Severe 2010 Cold-Water Event Caused Unprecedented Mortality To Corals Of The Florida Reef Tract And Reversed Previous Survivorship Patterns, Diego Lirman, Stephanie Schopmeyer, Derek Manzello, Lewis J. Gramer, William F. Precht, Frank E. Muller-Karger, Kenneth Banks, Brian Barnes, Erich Bartels, Amanda Bourque, James Byrne, Scott Donahue, Janice Duquesnel, Louis Fisher, David S. Gilliam, James C. Hendee, Meaghan E. Johnson, Kerry Maxwell, Erin Mcdevitt, Jamie Monty, Digna Rueda, Rob Ruzicka, Sara Thanner

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Background

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived …

Collaborative Research: Asian Ice Core Array (Aica)--Reconstruction Of Past Physical And Chemical Climate Over Asia, Paul Mayewski, Karl J. Kreutz, Andrei V. Kurbatov

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

Funding is provided to help the researchers build on success using ice cores for understanding past physical and chemical climate change from Antarctica, Arctic, North Pacific and Asia by analyzing and interpreting a new array of Asian ice cores. The researchers plan to use five existing ice cores and collect one new ice core to enhance the reconstruction of environmental conditions over Asia.

The primary research questions for the Asian Ice Core Array (AICA) research include:

(1) Asian climate variability - How do major Asian circulation features (i.e., Asian monsoon, Westerlies, polar air masses, Siberian and Tibetan Highs) vary on …

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Analyzing Past And Predicting Future Drought With Comprehensive Drought Indices For Arkansas-Red River Basin, Lu Liu, Yang Hong, James E. Hocker

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

This study is intended to examine the past drought and predict future drought scenarios for Arkansas-Red River Basin with comprehensive drought indices ranging from meteorology, hydro-meteorology to hydrology. In this proceeding, we present some early results and analysis with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Historical climate data within the 1900-2009 timeframe were archived to derive the drought indices calculations. The projected A2, A1B climate data modules from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were applied in drought occurrence frequency and affected area prediction. The results from the SPI and PDSI show that …

Climatic Characterization And Response Of Water Resources To Climate Change In Limestone Areas: Some Considerations On The Importance Of Geological Setting, Di Matteo Lucio, Valigi Daniela, Cambi Costanza

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

It is worldwide recognized and accepted that, in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in the last hundred years, the atmospheric temperature has risen by about 1°C, accompanied by a general decrease in precipitation. The trends detected in historical thermo-pluviometric series recorded in South/Central Italy show a general decrease in precipitation on an annual scale and a concentration of negative trends in the months from October to March. Analysis of the Standard Precipitation Index for the period 1951-2008 indicates higher frequency and duration of droughts in the last two decades: four prolonged dry periods (each lasting for up to three …

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Agenda: Navigating The Future Of The Colorado River, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Competition for scarce Colorado River water resources is nothing new, but the conflicts that prompted the seven basin states to negotiate the 1922 Colorado River Compact have grown considerably fiercer and more complex in recent decades. In 2007, responding to the challenges of increasing demand and sustained drought, the seven basin states and a number of other affected interests agreed to a set of interim guidelines for allocating Colorado River water in the event of shortages. This agreement represents an important evolution in the governance of the Colorado River, suggesting that the many interests in the basin can work together …

Effects Of Short-Term Warming On Low And High Latitude Forest Ant Communities, Shannon L. Pelini, Mark Boudreau, Neil Mccoy, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic change is expected to have differential effects on ecological communities in different geographic areas. However, few studies have experimentally demonstrated the effects of warming on communities simultaneously at different locales. We manipulated air temperature with in situ passive warming and cooling chambers and quantified effects of temperature on ant abundance, diversity, and foraging activities (predation, scavenging, seed dispersal, nectivory, granivory) in two deciduous forests at 35° and 43° N latitude in the eastern U.S. In the southern site, the most abundant species, Crematogaster lineolata, increased while species evenness, most ant foraging activities, and abundance of several other ant species …

Slides: Arctic Ecosystem Services Measurement And Modeling Project, Eric Biltonen

Best Management Practices (BMPs): What? How? And Why? (May 26)

Presenter: Eric Biltonen, PhD, Environment Economist, Houston Advanced Research Center

8 slides

Super-Aggregations Of Krill And Humpback Whales In Wilhelmina Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, Douglas P. Nowacek, Ari S. Friedlaender, Patrick N. Halpin, Elliott L. Hazen, David W. Johnston, Andrew J. Read, Boris Espinasse, Meng Zhou, Yiwu Zhu

Environmental, Earth, and Ocean Sciences Faculty Publication Series

Ecological relationships of krill and whales have not been explored in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), and have only rarely been studied elsewhere in the Southern Ocean. In the austral autumn we observed an extremely high density (5.1 whales per km²) of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) feeding on a super-aggregation of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in Wilhelmina Bay. The krill biomass was approximately 2 million tons, distributed over an area of 100 km² at densities of up to 2000 individuals m⁻³; reports of such ‘super-aggregations’ of krill have been absent in …

Timing Of Seasonal Migration In Mule Deer: Effects Of Climate, Plant Phenology, Andlife-History Characteristics, Kevin L. Monteith, Vernon C. Bleich, Thomas R. Stephenson, Becky M. Pierce, Mary M. Conner, Robert W. Klaver, R. Terry Bowyer

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored …

Crop Updates 2011 - Nutrition, Precision Agriculture & Climate And Forecasting, Deb Archdeacon, Andrew Gulliver, David Cullen, Qifu Ma, Richard Bell, Ross Brennan, Craig Scanlan, Wen Chen, Geoff Anderson, Mike Bolland, Peter Rees, Sandy Alexander, Frank D'Emden, Stephen Davies, Breanne Best, Louise Barton, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Ralph Kiese, Daniel Murphy, Peter Newman, Roger Mandel, Roger Lawes, Michael Robertson, Derk Bakker, Jeremy Lemon, Alison Lacey, John Paul Collins, Glen Riethmuller, Fiona H. Evans, David Stephens, Caroline Peek, Tim Scanlon

Crop Updates

This session covers sixteen papers from different authors:

Nutrition

1. Balance® used in conventional cropping practice with half of the upfront fertiliser rate can sustain crop yield and build soil biological fertility, Deb Archdeacon1, Andrew Gulliver2 and David Cullen2, 1Agronomica, Wellington Mill, WA, 2Custom Composts, Nambeelup, WA

2. Effects of potassium (K) supply on plant growth, potassium uptake and grain Yield in wheat grown in grey sand, Qifu Ma1, Richard Bell1, Ross Brennan2 and Craig Scanlan2, 1School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, 2Department of Agriculture and Food

3. Improving fertiliser management: redefining the …

Slides: Environmental Water In Australia, Chris Arnott

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Chris Arnott, Managing Director, Alluvium Consulting

30 slides

A Tale Of Two Carbon Sinks: Can Forest Carbon Management Serve As A Framework To Implement Ocean Iron Fertilization As A Climate Change Treaty Compliance Mechanism?, Randall S. Abate

Journal Publications

Any post-Kyoto climate change treaty regime must seek to fully engage the use of carbon sinks to complement emissions reduction measures in order to comply with the treaty's mandates. The Kyoto Protocol did not include avoided deforestation as a mechanism for earning emission reduction credits. However, reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) quickly gained popularity as a viable climate change compliance strategy in the period immediately preceding the negotiations at the Fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 15) in Copenhagen in 2009. The Copenhagen Accord is replete with references to REDD as a focus for the international community's progression …

Climate Change And San Francisco Bay-Delta Tidal Wetlands, V Thomas Parker, John Callaway, Lisa M. Schile, Michael C. Vasey, Ellen R. Herbert

Environmental Science

Climate change will affect tidal wetlands with higher rates of sea-level rise and higher concentrations of salt in brackish and freshwater tidal systems, in addition to causing increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, warmer temperatures, and shifts in precipitation. In the San Francisco Bay–Delta, the areas most likely to be affected—brackish and freshwater tidal wetlands—are also the sites with the majority of endemic plant species and the greater biodiversity and productivity. Effects on the San Francisco Bay– Delta estuary are complex and difficult to predict, but a few things are clear. Biodiversity of the tidal wetland system in the San Francisco …

A Green Board As A Climate-Change Imperative: Appointing A Climate-Change Expert To The Audit Committee, Porcher L. Taylor Iii, Harris L. Kay

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Faculty Publications

This article makes the innovative and timely case for a climate change imperative: a green board. Urgency is evident, with the arrival of "a fast-emerging new burden on board members to oversee their company's posture on climate change and to begin monitoring an area that, until now, has drawn scant attention in the boardroom."²¹ One major impetus for the proposal advocated in this Article is that there is apparently a dearth of green boards in corporate America.²² In contrast, European and Canadian companies appear to be at the vanguard of utilizing green boards.²³

Boldly Sustainable: Hope And Opportunity For Higher Education In The Age Of Climate Change (Book Review), Mary Finley-Brook, Breana Coleman, Kaitlan Lawrence

Geography and the Environment Faculty Publications

Peter Bardaglio and Andrea Putman’s groundbreaking book, Boldly Sustainable, provides a powerful strategy for colleges and universities to achieve renewal and relevance in the 21st century through innovation, academic rigor, and pragmatism. The book combines a refreshingly optimistic message of hope and opportunity with an honest critique of higher education, highlighting the need for transformative change. Case study examples throughout the book show how sustainability initiatives can stimulate excellence in teaching and learning while also encouraging improvements in physical operations. With a broad range of cases from public and private institutions of various sizes and rankings, the authors convincingly …

Winter And Summer Upwelling Modes And Their Biological Importance In The California Current Ecosystem, Bryan A. Black, Isaac D. Schroeder, William J. Sydeman, Steven J. Bograd, Brian K. Wells, Franklin B. Schwing

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Analysis of monthly coastal upwelling intensities revealed two seasonal and biologically relevant upwelling ‘modes’ in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The first mode reflected upwelling during the summer months and was characterized by low-frequency (multidecadal) processes, including significant (Po0.01) linear trends at some latitudes. In contrast, the second mode reflected wintertime upwelling and was defined by higher-frequency variability associated with the North Pacific High and El Niño Southern Oscillation events. These modes were compared with multidecadal time series of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) otolith growth, yelloweye rockfish (S. ruberrimus) otolith growth, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha …

The Potential For Indicators In The Management Of Climate Change Impacts On Cultural Heritage, Caithleen Daly

Conference papers

The global scale and unpredictable nature of climate change impacts on cultural heritage poses a challenge for conservation management. This article explores the potential of indicators as an aid for decision makers in the heritage sector. The author proposes a new indicator tool for addressing long-term stone recession impacts that may be related to climate change. The indicator is being installed at two World Heritage sites in Ireland but no results are available. The prototype was developed during doctoral research at the Technological University of Dublin.

The Politics And Culture Of Climate Change: Us Actors And Global Implications, Charles Waugh

English Faculty Publications

Despite the scientific consensus on global warming, many people in the USA,—both ordinary citizens and elected leaders alike—remain skeptical of the need to act, and in fact remain skeptical of the idea that humans are contributing to global warming at all. Thus, environmental justice arguments based on United States carbon emissions and the disproportionate impact of rising temperatures and rising sea levels on tropical developing nations such as Vietnam frequently fall on deaf ears. This chapter explores the political and cultural construction of this deafness, seeking a better understanding of how and why so many Americans refuse to act to …