Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Assessing Predictive Ability Of Three Auroral Precipitation Models Using Dmsp Energy Flux, Cory T. Lane, Ariel O. Acebal, Yihua Zheng

Faculty Publications

Our study statistically compares the total energy flux outputs of Newell et al.'s (2010a) oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime model, Hardy et al.'s (1991) Kp‐based model, and a coupled Space Weather Modeling Framework ring current model to energy flux data obtained from 2198 Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite passes in the Northern Hemisphere. Our DMSP data set includes 28 days grouped into continuous 3 and 4 day periods between 2000 and 2008 and encompasses magnetic local times (MLTs) between 04:00 and 21:00. We obtain the most equatorward magnetic latitude coordinate, where a DMSP satellite …