Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Quantity Trumps Quality: Bayesian Statistical Accumulation Modeling Guides Radiocarbon Measurements To Construct A Chronology In Real-Time, Devon Robert Firesinger

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The development of an accurate and precise geochronology is imperative to understanding archives containing information about Earth’s past. Unable to date all intervals of an archive, researchers use methods of interpolation to approximate age between dates. Sections of the radiocarbon calibration curve can induce larger chronological uncertainty independent of instrumental precision, meaning even a precise date may carry inflated error in its calibration to a calendar age. Methods of interpolation range from step-wise linear regression to, most recently, Bayesian statistical models. These employ prior knowledge of accumulation rate to provide a more informed interpolation between neighboring dates. This study uses …