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Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Linking Models Of Human Behavior And Climate Alters Projected Climate Change, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Katherine Lacasse, Eric Carr, Sara S. Metcalf, Jonathan M. Winter, Peter D. Howe, Nina Fefferman, Travis Franck, Asim Zia, Ann Kinzig, Forrest M. Hoffman
Linking Models Of Human Behavior And Climate Alters Projected Climate Change, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Katherine Lacasse, Eric Carr, Sara S. Metcalf, Jonathan M. Winter, Peter D. Howe, Nina Fefferman, Travis Franck, Asim Zia, Ann Kinzig, Forrest M. Hoffman
Faculty Publications
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioral changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the CROADS climate model to a social model of behavioral change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behavior influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioral uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the …
Association Between Fire Return Interval And Population Dynamics In Four California Populations Of Tecate Cypress (Cupressus Forbesii), Roland C. De Gouvenain, Ali M. Ansary
Association Between Fire Return Interval And Population Dynamics In Four California Populations Of Tecate Cypress (Cupressus Forbesii), Roland C. De Gouvenain, Ali M. Ansary
Faculty Publications
The Tecate cypress (Cupressus forbesii) is a tree species associated with chaparral ecosystems in southern California and northern Baja California, Mexico. It is fire-adapted, its regeneration triggered by the opening of serotinous cones when adult trees are burned. Surveys made in the 1980s by others suggested that some Tecate cypress populations were declining, and some authors suggested that increased fire frequency in southern California was a major factor for this decline. We asked whether current population trends were still negative for Tecate cypress 20 years later, and whether population growth was associated with fire return interval length. Based on demographic, …