Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Widespread Severe Wildfires Under Climate Change Lead To Increased Forest Homogeneity In Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests, Brooke Alyce Cassell, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Matthew Hurteau, E. Louise Loudermilk

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed-conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire-prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results …

Mountain Lakes: Eyes On Global Environmental Change, Katrina A. Moser, Jill S. Baron, Janice Brahney, Isabella A. Olesky, Jasmine E. Saros, Elizabeth J. Hundey, Steven A. Sadro, Jiri Kopácek, Ruben Sommaruga, Martin J. Kainz, Angela L. Strecker, Sudeep Chandra, David M. Walters, Daniel L. Preston, Neal Michelutti, Fabio Lepori, Sarah A. Spaulding, Kyle R. Christianson, John M. Melack, J. P. Smol

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Mountain lakes are often situated in protected natural areas, a feature that leads to their role as sentinels of global environmental change. Despite variations in latitude, mountain lakes share many features, including their location in catchments with steep topographic gradients, cold temperatures, high incident solar and ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and prolonged ice and snow cover. These characteristics, in turn, affect mountain lake ecosystem structure, diversity, and productivity. The lakes themselves are mostly small and shallow, and up until recently, have been characterized as oligotrophic. This paper provides a review and update of the growing body of research that shows that …

Interactions Among Fuel Management, Species Composition, Bark Beetles, And Climate Change And The Potential Effects On Forests Of The Lake Tahoe Basin, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, E. Louise Loudermilk, Matthew D. Hurteau, Peter J. Weisberg, Carl Skinner

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle …

Competition Amplifies Drought Stress In Forests Across Broad Climatic And Compositional Gradients, Kelly E. Gleason, John B. Bradford, Alessandra Bottero, Anthony W. D'Amato, Shawn Fraver, Brian J. Palik, Michael A. Battaglia, Louis Iverson, Laura Kenefic, Christel C. Kern

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest …

Evaluating Simplistic Methods To Understand Current Distributions And Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor Coypus), Catherine S. Jarnevich, Nicholas E. Young, Trevor R. Sheffels, Jacoby Carter, Mark D. Sytsma, Colin Talbert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling …

How Landscape Ecology Informs Global Land-Change Science And Policy, Audrey L. Mayer, Brian Buma, Amélie Davis, Sara A. Gagné, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow, Fiona Majorin, Yolanda F. Wiersma, Janet Franklin

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of LULCC, urbanization. These processes are interrelated, because LULCC is driven by both human activities (e.g., agricultural expansion and urban sprawl) and climate change (e.g., desertification). Climate change, in turn, will affect the way humans use landscapes. Interactions among these drivers of ecosystem change can …

Carbon Sequestration In Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests Under Climate Change, Caren C. Dymond, Sarah Beukema, Craig R. Nitschke, K. David Coates, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under …

Climate Change And Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition And Sage-Grouse Habitat In Southeastern Oregon, Megan K. Creutzburg, Emilie B. Henderson, David R. Conklin

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global …

Fire Modulates Climate Change Response Of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients In A Semi-Arid Montane Landscape, Jian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg, Douglas J. Shinneman, Thomas E. Dilts, Susan L. Earnst, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients.

Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients.

Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer …

Predicted Effects Of Gypsy Moth Defoliation And Climate Change On Forest Carbon Dynamics In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Alec M. Kretchun, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom, Steve Van Tuyl

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 …

Climate Change Effects On Northern Great Lake (Usa) Forests: A Case For Preserving Diversity, Matthew Joshua Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller, Mark A. White, Stephen D. Handler, Catherine Ravenscroft

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity …

Impacts Of Fire And Climate Change On Long-Term Nitrogen Availability And Forest Productivity In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had …

Carbon Dynamics In The Future Forest: The Importance Of Long-Term Successional Legacy And Climate–Fire Interactions, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Peter J. Weisberg, Jian Yang, Thomas E. Dilts, Sarah L. Karam, Carl Skinner

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results …

Climate Change And Fire Management In The Mid-Atlantic Region, Kenneth L. Clark, Nicholas Skowronski, Heidi Renninger, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid­-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower measurements, and simulation studies to evaluate how the use of prescibed fire affects short-and long-term forest C dynamics. Climate change may create weather conditions more conducive to wildfire activity, but successional changes in forest composition, altered gap dynamics, reduced understory and forest …

Divergent Carbon Dynamics Under Climate Change In Forests With Diverse Soils, Tree Species, And Land Use Histories, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, Steve Van Tuyl, Kenneth L. Clark, Melissa S. Lucash, John Hom

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used …