Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Intelligence Game: Assessing Delphi Groups And Structured Question Formats, Bonnie Wintle, Steven Mascaro, Fiona Fidler, Marissa Mcbride, Mark Burgman, Louisa Flander, Geoff Saw, Charles Twardy, Aidan Lyon, Brian Manning

Australian Security and Intelligence Conference

In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting “tournament”. Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, economic and military events. We are contributing to one of these teams by eliciting forecasts from Delphi-style groups in the US and Australia. We elicit probabilities of outcomes for 3-5 monthly questions, such as: Will Australia formally transfer uranium to India by 1 June 2012? Participants submit probabilities in a 3-step interval format, view those of others in their group, share, rate and discuss information, and then make …