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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Extent And Causes Of Chesapeake Bay Warming, Kyle E. Hinson, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Fei Da, Raymond G. Najjar Jun 2021

Extent And Causes Of Chesapeake Bay Warming, Kyle E. Hinson, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Fei Da, Raymond G. Najjar

VIMS Articles

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface …


Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long- Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al May 2021

Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long- Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Excessive nitrogen can enter estuarine and coastal areas from land, disturbing coastal ecosystems and causing serious environmental problems. The Chesapeake Bay is one of the regions that have experienced hypoxia and harmful algal blooms in recent decades. This study estimated nitrogen export from the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) to the estuary from 1900 to 2015 by applying a state-of-the-art numerical model. Nitrogen loading from the CBW continually increased from the 1900s to the 1990s and has declined since then. The key contributors to nitrogen export have shifted from atmospheric nitrogen deposition (before the 1960s) to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer (after the …


Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid-Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al May 2021

Riverine Carbon Cycling Over The Past Century In The Mid-Atlantic Region Of The United States, Yuanzi Yao, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Rivers are an important component of the terrestrial-aquatic ocean continuum as they serve as a conduit for transporting carbon from the land to the coastal ocean. It is essential to track the fate of this carbon, including how much carbon is buried in the riverbed, outgassed to the atmosphere, and exported to the ocean. However, it is often difficult to quantify these carbon transport processes on the watershed scale because observational data obtained by field surveys can only be used to estimate the magnitude of these processes at distinct points. In this study, we used a coupled terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem model …


Effects Of Reduced Shoreline Erosion On Chesapeake Bay Water Clarity, Jessica S. Turner, Pierre St-Laurent, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Carl T. Friedrichs Jan 2021

Effects Of Reduced Shoreline Erosion On Chesapeake Bay Water Clarity, Jessica S. Turner, Pierre St-Laurent, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Carl T. Friedrichs

VIMS Articles

Shoreline erosion supplies sediments to estuaries and coastal waters, influencing water clarity and primary production. Globally, shoreline erosion sediment inputs are changing with anthropogenic alteration of coastlines in populated regions. Chesapeake Bay, a prime example of such a system where shoreline erosion accounts for a large proportion of sediments entering the estuary, serves here as a case study for investigating the effects of changing sediment inputs on water clarity. Long-term increases in shoreline armoring have contributed to decreased erosional sediment inputs to the estuary, changing the composition of suspended particles in surface waters. This study examined the impact of shoreline …


Connectivity: Insights From The U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network, David M. Iwaniec, Michael Gooseff, Katherine N. Suding, David S. Johnson, Et Al Jan 2021

Connectivity: Insights From The U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network, David M. Iwaniec, Michael Gooseff, Katherine N. Suding, David S. Johnson, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case …


Estuaries As Filters For Riverine Microplastics: Simulations In A Large, Coastal-Plain Estuary, Alexander G. Lopez, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Michael A. Hickner, Denice H. Wardrop Jan 2021

Estuaries As Filters For Riverine Microplastics: Simulations In A Large, Coastal-Plain Estuary, Alexander G. Lopez, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Michael A. Hickner, Denice H. Wardrop

VIMS Articles

Public awareness of microplastics and their widespread presence throughout most bodies of water are increasingly documented. The accumulation of microplastics in the ocean, however, appears to be far less than their riverine inputs, suggesting that there is a “missing sink” of plastics in the ocean. Estuaries have long been recognized as filters for riverine material in marine biogeochemical budgets. Here we use a model of estuarine microplastic transport to test the hypothesis that the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in eastern North America, is a potentially large filter, or “sink,” of riverine microplastics. The 1-year composite simulation, which tracks …


Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, And Managers For A Fast-Forward Future, Richard B. Norgaard, John A. Wiens, (...), Elizabeth A. Canuel, Et Al Jan 2021

Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, And Managers For A Fast-Forward Future, Richard B. Norgaard, John A. Wiens, (...), Elizabeth A. Canuel, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario …


Long-Term Trends In Chesapeake Bay Remote Sensing Reflectance: Implications For Water Clarity, Jessica S. Turner, Carl T. Friedrichs, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs Jan 2021

Long-Term Trends In Chesapeake Bay Remote Sensing Reflectance: Implications For Water Clarity, Jessica S. Turner, Carl T. Friedrichs, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs

VIMS Articles

While ecosystem health is improving in many estuaries worldwide following nutrient reductions, inconsistent trends in water clarity often remain. The Chesapeake Bay, a eutrophic estuary with a highly populated watershed, is a crucial testbed for these concerns. Improved efforts are needed to understand why some measurements of downstream estuarine water clarity appear to be uncorrelated with watershed management actions, and multiple metrics of clarity are needed to address this issue. To complement in situ measurements, satellite remote sensing provides an additional tool with which to assess long-term change in water clarity. In this study, remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) from the …


Real-Time Environmental Forecasts Of The Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup, Improvements, And Online Visualization, Aaron Bever, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent Jan 2021

Real-Time Environmental Forecasts Of The Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup, Improvements, And Online Visualization, Aaron Bever, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent

VIMS Articles

Daily real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 2-day forecasts of environmental conditions in the Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available for 4 years. The forecasts use a 3-D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model with 1–2 km resolution and 3-D output every 6 h that includes salinity, water temperature, pH, aragonite saturation state, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, and hypoxic volume. Visualizations of the forecasts are available through a local institutional website (www.vims.edu/hypoxia) and the MARACOOS Oceans Map portal (https://oceansmap.maracoos.org/chesapeake-bay/). Modifications to real-time graphics on the local website are routinely made based on stakeholder input and are formatted for use on a mobile …


Mechanisms Driving Decadal Changes In The Carbonate System Of A Coastal Plain Estuary, Fei Da, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Elizabeth Shadwick, Raymond G. Najjaar, Kyle E. Hinson Jan 2021

Mechanisms Driving Decadal Changes In The Carbonate System Of A Coastal Plain Estuary, Fei Da, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Elizabeth Shadwick, Raymond G. Najjaar, Kyle E. Hinson

VIMS Articles

Understanding decadal changes in the coastal carbonate system is essential for predicting how the health of these waters responds to anthropogenic drivers, such as changing atmospheric conditions and riverine inputs. However, studies that quantify the relative impacts of these drivers are lacking. In this study, the primary drivers of decadal trends in the surface carbonate system, and the spatiotemporal variability in these trends, are identified for a large coastal plain estuary: the Chesapeake Bay. Experiments using a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model highlight that, over the past three decades, the changes in the surface carbonate system of Chesapeake Bay have strong …


Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al Jan 2021

Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement …


Particulate Organic Matter Distributions In The Water Column Of The Chukchi Sea During Late Summer, Miguel A. Goni, Lauren W. Juranek, Rachel E. Sipler, Kylie A. Welch Jan 2021

Particulate Organic Matter Distributions In The Water Column Of The Chukchi Sea During Late Summer, Miguel A. Goni, Lauren W. Juranek, Rachel E. Sipler, Kylie A. Welch

VIMS Articles

We investigated the distribution and composition of particulate organic matter in waters from the northeast Chukchi Sea during two late summer periods (September 2016 and August 2017). During both cruises we measured a variety of properties (salinity, temperature, density, chlorophyll fluorescence and particle beam attenuation). We also collected individual water samples from specific depths and measured the concentrations of suspended particulate matter, particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, chlorophyll-a and pheophytin (a chlorophyll degradation product). These measurements revealed highly stratified conditions throughout the study area, with surface waters exhibiting relatively low particle and biomass concentrations, middepth waters with well-defined subsurface chlorophyll …


An Operational Overview Of The Export Processes In The Ocean From Remote Sensing (Exports) Northeast Pacific Field Deployment, David A. Siegel, Ivona Cetinic, (...), Deborah K. Steinberg, Et Al Jan 2021

An Operational Overview Of The Export Processes In The Ocean From Remote Sensing (Exports) Northeast Pacific Field Deployment, David A. Siegel, Ivona Cetinic, (...), Deborah K. Steinberg, Et Al

VIMS Articles

The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign is to develop a predictive understanding of the export, fate, and carbon cycle impacts of global ocean net primary production. To accomplish this goal, observations of export flux pathways, plankton community composition, food web processes, and optical, physical, and biogeochemical (BGC) properties are needed over a range of ecosystem states. Here we introduce the first EXPORTS field deployment to Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during summer of 2018, providing context for other papers in this special collection. The experiment was conducted with …


The Application Of Metacommunity Theory To The Management Of Riverine Ecosystems, Christopher J. Patrick, Kurt E. Anderson, Brown L. Brown, Et Al Jan 2021

The Application Of Metacommunity Theory To The Management Of Riverine Ecosystems, Christopher J. Patrick, Kurt E. Anderson, Brown L. Brown, Et Al

VIMS Articles

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodi versity and ecosystem function. T o achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from differ- ent communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influ- ence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of …