Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications
Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …
Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications
1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …
Effects Of Short-Term Warming On Low And High Latitude Forest Ant Communities, Shannon L. Pelini, Mark Boudreau, Neil Mccoy, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
Effects Of Short-Term Warming On Low And High Latitude Forest Ant Communities, Shannon L. Pelini, Mark Boudreau, Neil Mccoy, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn
College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications
Climatic change is expected to have differential effects on ecological communities in different geographic areas. However, few studies have experimentally demonstrated the effects of warming on communities simultaneously at different locales. We manipulated air temperature with in situ passive warming and cooling chambers and quantified effects of temperature on ant abundance, diversity, and foraging activities (predation, scavenging, seed dispersal, nectivory, granivory) in two deciduous forests at 35° and 43° N latitude in the eastern U.S. In the southern site, the most abundant species, Crematogaster lineolata, increased while species evenness, most ant foraging activities, and abundance of several other ant species …