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Articles 1 - 30 of 1083
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Stochastic Dominance: Cases Of Interval And P-Box Uncertainty, Kittawit Autchariyapanikul, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Stochastic Dominance: Cases Of Interval And P-Box Uncertainty, Kittawit Autchariyapanikul, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Traditional decision theory recommendation about making a decision assume that we know both the probabilities of different outcomes of each possible decision, and we know the utility function -- that describes the decision maker's preferences. Sometimes, we can make a recommendation even when we only have partial information about utility. Such cases are known as cases of stochastic dominance. In other cases, in addition to not knowing the utility function, we also only have partial information about the probabilities of different outcomes. For example, we may only known bounds on the outcomes (case of interval uncertainty) or bounds on the …
If Subsequent Results Are Too Easy To Obtain, The Proof Most Probably Has Errors: Explanation Of The Empirical Observation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
If Subsequent Results Are Too Easy To Obtain, The Proof Most Probably Has Errors: Explanation Of The Empirical Observation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Many modern mathematical proofs are very complex, checking them is difficult; as a result, errors sneak into published proofs, even into proofs published in highly reputable journals. Sometimes, the errors are repairable, but sometimes, it turns out that the supposedly proven result is actually wrong. When the error is not noticed for some time, the published result is used to prove many other results -- and when the error is eventually found, all these new results are invalidated. This happened several times. Since it is not realistic to more thoroughly check all the proofs, and we want to minimize the …
For 2 X N Cases, Proportional Fitting Problem Reduces To A Single Equation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
For 2 X N Cases, Proportional Fitting Problem Reduces To A Single Equation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In many practical situations, for each of two classifications, we know the probabilities that a randomly selected object belong to different categories. For example, we know what proportion of people are below 20 years old, what proportion is between 20 and 30, etc., and we also know what proportion of people earns less than 10K, between 10K and 20K, etc. In such situations, we are often interested in proportion of people who are classified by two classifications into two given categories. For example, we are interested in the proportion of people whose age is between 20 and 30 and whose …
Is Alaska Negative-Tax Arrangement Fair? Almost: Mathematical Analysis, Chon Van Le, Vladik Kreinovich
Is Alaska Negative-Tax Arrangement Fair? Almost: Mathematical Analysis, Chon Van Le, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In the State of Alaska there is no state income tax. Instead, there is a negative tex: every year every resident gets some money from the state. At present, every resident -- from the poorest to the richest -- gets the exact same amount of money: in 2024, it is expected to be around $1500. A natural question is: Is this fair? Maybe poor people should get more since their needs are greater? Maybe the rich people should get proportionally more, since fairness means equal added happiness for all, and for rich people, extra $1500 is barely noticeable? There have …
Why Angles Between Galactic Center Filaments And Galactic Plane Follow A Bimodal Distribution: A Symmetry-Based Explanation, Julio C. Urenda, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Angles Between Galactic Center Filaments And Galactic Plane Follow A Bimodal Distribution: A Symmetry-Based Explanation, Julio C. Urenda, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Recent observations have shown that the angles between the Galaxy Center filaments and the Galactic plane follow a bimodal distribution: a large number of filaments are approximately orthogonal to the Galactic plane, a large number of filaments are approximately parallel to the Galactic plane, and much fewer filaments have other orientations. In this paper, we show this bimodal distribution can be explained by natural geometric symmetries.
Why Seismicity In Ireland Is Low: A Possible Geometric Explanation, Julio C. Urenda, Aaron Velasco, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Seismicity In Ireland Is Low: A Possible Geometric Explanation, Julio C. Urenda, Aaron Velasco, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
For each geographic location, its seismicity level is usually determined by how close this location is to the boundaries of tectonic plates. However, there is one notable exception: while Ireland and Britain are at approximately the same distance from such boundaries, the seismicity level in Ireland is much lower than in Britain. A recent paper provided a partial explanation for this phenomenon: namely, it turns out that the lithosphere under Ireland is unusually thick, and this can potentially lead to lower seismicity. However, the current explanation of the relation between the lithosphere thickness and seismicity level strongly depends on the …
For Discrete-Time Linear Dynamical Systems Under Interval Uncertainty, Predicting Two Moments Ahead Is Np-Hard, Luc Jaulin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
For Discrete-Time Linear Dynamical Systems Under Interval Uncertainty, Predicting Two Moments Ahead Is Np-Hard, Luc Jaulin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In the first approximation, when changes are small, most real-world systems are described by linear dynamical equations. If we know the initial state of the system, and we know its dynamics, then we can, in principle, predict the system's state many moments ahead. In practice, however, we usually know both the initial state and the coefficients of the system's dynamics with some uncertainty. Frequently, we encounter interval uncertainty, when for each parameter, we only know its range, but we have no information about the probability of different values from this range. In such situations, we want to know the range …
What To Do If An Inflexible Tolerance Problem Has No Solutions: Probabilistic Justification Of Piegat's Semi-Heuristic Idea, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
What To Do If An Inflexible Tolerance Problem Has No Solutions: Probabilistic Justification Of Piegat's Semi-Heuristic Idea, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In many practical situations, it is desirable to select the control parameters x1, ..., xn in such a way that the resulting quantities y1, ..., ym of the system lie within desired ranges. In such situations, we usually know the general formulas describing the dependence of yi on xj, but the coefficients of these formulas are usually only known with interval uncertainty. In such a situation, we want to find the tuples for which all yi's are in the desired intervals for all possible tuples of coefficients. But what if no such parameters are possible? Since we cannot guarantee the …
How To Make Ai More Reliable, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Make Ai More Reliable, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
One of the reasons why the results of the current AI methods (especially deep-learning-based methods) are not absolutely reliable is that, in contrast to more traditional data processing techniques which are based on solid mathematical and statistical foundations, modern AI techniques use a lot of semi-heuristic methods. These methods have been, in many cases, empirically successful, but the absence of solid justification makes us less certain that these methods will work in other cases as well. To make AI more reliable, it is therefore necessary to provide mathematical foundations for the current semi-heuristic techniques. In this paper, we show that …
Why Magenta Is Not A Real Color, And How It Is Related To Fuzzy Control And Quantum Computing, Victor L. Timchenko, Yuriy P. Kondratenko, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Magenta Is Not A Real Color, And How It Is Related To Fuzzy Control And Quantum Computing, Victor L. Timchenko, Yuriy P. Kondratenko, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
It is well known that every color can be represented as a combination of three basic colors: red, green, and blue. In particular, we can get several colors by combining two of the basic colors. Interestingly, while a combination of two neighboring colors leads to a color that corresponds to a certain frequency, the combination of two non-neighboring colors -- red and blue -- leads to magenta, a color that does not correspond to any frequency. In this paper, we provide a simple explanation for this phenomenon, and we also show that a similar phenomenon happens in two other areas …
How To Propagate Uncertainty Via Ai Algorithms, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Propagate Uncertainty Via Ai Algorithms, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Any data processing starts with measurement results. Measurement results are never absolutely accurate. Because of this measurement uncertainty, the results of processing measurement results are, in general, somewhat different from what we would have obtained if we knew the exact values of the measured quantities. To make a decision based on the result of data processing, we need to know how accurate is this result, i.e., we need to propagate the measurement uncertainty through the data processing algorithm. There are many techniques for uncertainty propagation. Usually, they involve applying the same data processing algorithm several times to appropriately modified data. …
Why Empirical Membership Functions Are Well-Approximated By Piecewise Quadratic Functions: Theoretical Explanation For Empirical Formulas Of Novak's Fuzzy Natural Logic, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Empirical Membership Functions Are Well-Approximated By Piecewise Quadratic Functions: Theoretical Explanation For Empirical Formulas Of Novak's Fuzzy Natural Logic, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Empirical analysis shows that membership functions describing expert opinions have a shape that is well described by a smooth combination of two quadratic segments. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical phenomenon.
Why Fully Consistent Quantum Field Theories Require That The Space-Time Be At Least 10-Dimensional: A Commonsense Field-Based Explanation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Fully Consistent Quantum Field Theories Require That The Space-Time Be At Least 10-Dimensional: A Commonsense Field-Based Explanation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
It is known that quantum field theories that describe fields in our usual 4-dimensional space-times are not fully consistent: they predict meaningless infinite values for some physical quantities. There are some known tricks to avoid such infinities, but it is definitely desirable to have a fully consistent theory, a theory that would produce correct results without having to use additional tricks. It turns out that the only way to have such a theory is to consider space-times of higher dimensions, the smallest of which is 10. There are complex mathematical reasons for why 10 is the smallest such dimension. However, …
Why Is Grade Distribution Often Bimodal? Why Individualized Teaching Adds Two Sigmas To The Average Grade? And How Are These Facts Related?, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Is Grade Distribution Often Bimodal? Why Individualized Teaching Adds Two Sigmas To The Average Grade? And How Are These Facts Related?, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
To make education more effective, to better use emerging technologies in education, we need to better understand the education process, to gain insights on this process. How can we check whether a new idea is indeed a useful insight? A natural criterion is that the new idea should explain some previously-difficult-to-explain empirical phenomenon. Since one of the main advantages of emerging educational technologies -- such as AI -- is the possibility of individualized education, a natural phenomenon to explain is the fact -- discovered by Benjamin Bloom -- that individualization adds two sigmas to the average grade. In this paper, …
Towards A More Subtle (And Hopefully More Adequate) Fuzzy "And"-Operation: Normalization-Invariant Multi-Input Aggregation Operators, Yusuf Güven, Vladik Kreinovich
Towards A More Subtle (And Hopefully More Adequate) Fuzzy "And"-Operation: Normalization-Invariant Multi-Input Aggregation Operators, Yusuf Güven, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Many reasonable conditions have been formulated for a fuzzy "and"-operation: idempotency, commutativity, associativity, etc. It is known that the only "and"-operation that satisfies all these conditions is minimum, but minimum is not the most adequate description of expert's "and", and it often does not lead to the best control or the best decision. Many other more adequate "and"-operations (t-norms) have been proposed and effectively used, but they do not satisfy the natural idempotency condition. In this paper, we show that a small relaxation of the usual description of "and"-operations leads to the possibility of non-minimum idempotent operations. We also show …
How To Make A Neural Network Learn From A Small Number Of Examples -- And Learn Fast: An Idea, Chitta Baral, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Make A Neural Network Learn From A Small Number Of Examples -- And Learn Fast: An Idea, Chitta Baral, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Current deep learning techniques have led to spectacular results, but they still have limitations. One of them is that, in contrast to humans who can learn from a few examples and learn fast, modern deep learning techniques require a large amount of data to learn, and they take a long time to train. In this paper, we show that neural networks do have a potential to learn from a small number of examples -- and learn fast. We speculate that the corresponding idea may already be implicitly implemented in Large Language Models -- which may partially explain their (somewhat mysterious) …
How Can We Explain Empirical Formulas For Shrinkage Cracking Of Cement-Stabilized Pavement Layers, Edgar Daniel Rodriguez Velasquez, Vladik Kreinovich
How Can We Explain Empirical Formulas For Shrinkage Cracking Of Cement-Stabilized Pavement Layers, Edgar Daniel Rodriguez Velasquez, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In pavement construction, one of the frequent defects is shrinkage cracking of the cement-stabilized pavement layer. To minimize this defect, it is important to be able to predict how this cracking depends on the quantities describing the pavement layer and the corresponding environment. Cracking is usually described by two parameters: the average width of the crack and the crack spacing. Empirical analysis shows that the dependence of the width on all related quantities is described by a power law. Power laws are ubiquitous in physics, they describe a frequent case when the dependence is scale-invariant -- i.e., does not change …
Topics In The Study Of The Pragmatic Functions Of Phonetic Reduction In Dialog, Nigel G. Ward, Carlos A. Ortega
Topics In The Study Of The Pragmatic Functions Of Phonetic Reduction In Dialog, Nigel G. Ward, Carlos A. Ortega
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Reduced articulatory precision is common in speech, but for dialog its acoustic properties and pragmatic functions have been little studied. We here try to remedy this gap. This technical report contains content that was omitted from the journal article (Ward et. al, submitted). Specifically, we here report 1) lessons learned about annotating for perceived reduction, 2) the finding that, unlike in read speech, the correlates of reduction in dialog include high pitch, wide pitch range, and intensity, and 3) a baseline model for predicting reduction in dialog, using simple acoustic/prosodic features, that achieves correlations with human perceptions of 0.24 for …
Shall We Place More Advanced Students In A Separate Class?, Shahnaz Shahbazova, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Shall We Place More Advanced Students In A Separate Class?, Shahnaz Shahbazova, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In every class, we have students who are more advanced and students who are more behind. From this viewpoint, it seems reasonable to place more advanced students in a separate class. This should help advanced students progress faster, and it should help other students as well, since the teachers in the remaining class can better attend to their needs. However, empirically, this does not work: when we form a separate class, the overall amount of gained knowledge decreases. In this paper, we provide a possible explanation for this seemingly counterintuitive phenomenon.
How Difficult Is It To Comprehend A Program That Has Significant Repetitions: Fuzzy-Related Explanations Of Empirical Results, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
How Difficult Is It To Comprehend A Program That Has Significant Repetitions: Fuzzy-Related Explanations Of Empirical Results, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In teaching computing and in gauging the programmers' productivity, it is important to property estimate how much time it will take to comprehend a program. There are techniques for estimating this time, but these techniques do not take into account that some program segments are similar, and this similarity decreases the time needed to comprehend the second segment. Recently, experiments were performed to describe this decrease. These experiments found an empirical formula for the corresponding decrease. In this paper, we use fuzzy-related ideas to provide commonsense-based theoretical explanation for this empirical formula.
Mcfadden's Discrete Choice And Softmax Under Interval (And Other) Uncertainty: Revisited, Bartlomiej Jacek Kubica, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Mcfadden's Discrete Choice And Softmax Under Interval (And Other) Uncertainty: Revisited, Bartlomiej Jacek Kubica, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Studies of how people actually make decisions have led to an empirical formula that predicts the probability of different decisions based on the utilities of different alternatives. This formula is known as McFadden's formula, after a Nobel prize winning economist who discovered it. A similar formula -- known as softmax -- describes the probability that the classification predicted by a deep neural network is correct, based on the neural network's degrees of confidence in the object belonging to each class. In practice, we usually do not know the exact values of the utilities -- or of the degrees of confidence. …
Why Bernstein Polynomials: Yet Another Explanation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why Bernstein Polynomials: Yet Another Explanation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In many computational situations -- in particular, in computations under interval or fuzzy uncertainty -- it is convenient to approximate a function by a polynomial. Usually, a polynomial is represented by coefficients at its monomials. However, in many cases, it turns out more efficient to represent a general polynomial by using a different basis -- of so-called Bernstein polynomials. In this paper, we provide a new explanation for the computational efficiency of this basis.
Somewhat Surprisingly, (Subjective) Fuzzy Technique Can Help To Better Combine Measurement Results And Expert Estimates Into A Model With Guaranteed Accuracy: Digital Twins And Beyond, Niklas Winnewisser, Michael Beer, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Somewhat Surprisingly, (Subjective) Fuzzy Technique Can Help To Better Combine Measurement Results And Expert Estimates Into A Model With Guaranteed Accuracy: Digital Twins And Beyond, Niklas Winnewisser, Michael Beer, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
To understand how different factors and different control strategies will affect a system -- be it a plant, an airplane, etc. -- it is desirable to form an accurate digital model of this system. Such models are known as digital twins. To make a digital twin as accurate as possible, it is desirable to incorporate all available knowledge of the system into this model. In many cases, a significant part of this knowledge comes in terms of expert statements, statements that are often formulated by using imprecise ("fuzzy") words from natural language such as "small", "very possible", etc. To translate …
How To Gauge Inequality And Fairness: A Complete Description Of All Decomposable Versions Of Theil Index, Saeid Tizpaz-Niari, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Gauge Inequality And Fairness: A Complete Description Of All Decomposable Versions Of Theil Index, Saeid Tizpaz-Niari, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In general, in statistics, the most widely used way to describe the difference between different elements of a sample if by using standard deviation. This characteristic has a nice property of being decomposable: e.g., to compute the mean and standard deviation of the income overall the whole US, it is sufficient to compute the number of people, mean, and standard deviation over each state; this state-by-state information is sufficient to uniquely reconstruct the overall standard deviation. However, e.g., for gauging income inequality, standard deviation is not very adequate: it provides too much weight to outliers like billionaires, and thus, does …
Update From Aristotle To Newton, From Sets To Fuzzy Sets, And From Sigmoid To Relu: What Do All These Transitions Have In Common?, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Update From Aristotle To Newton, From Sets To Fuzzy Sets, And From Sigmoid To Relu: What Do All These Transitions Have In Common?, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In this paper, we show that there is a -- somewhat unexpected -- common trend behind several seemingly unrelated historic transitions: from Aristotelian physics to modern (Newton's) approach, from crisp sets (such as intervals) to fuzzy sets, and from traditional neural networks, with close-to-step-function sigmoid activation functions to modern successful deep neural networks that use a completely different ReLU activation function. In all these cases, the main idea of the corresponding transition can be explained, in mathematical terms, as going from the first order to second order differential equations.
How To Make A Decision Under Interval Uncertainty If We Do Not Know The Utility Function, Jeffrey Escamilla, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Make A Decision Under Interval Uncertainty If We Do Not Know The Utility Function, Jeffrey Escamilla, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Decision theory describes how to make decisions, in particular, how to make decisions under interval uncertainty. However, this theory's recommendations assume that we know the utility function -- a function that describes the decision maker's preferences. Sometimes, we can make a recommendation even when we do not know the utility function. In this paper, we provide a complete description of all such cases.
Paradox Of Causality And Paradoxes Of Set Theory, Alondra Baquier, Bradley Beltran, Gabriel Miki-Silva, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Paradox Of Causality And Paradoxes Of Set Theory, Alondra Baquier, Bradley Beltran, Gabriel Miki-Silva, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Logical paradoxes show that human reasoning is not always fully captured by the traditional 2-valued logic, that this logic's extensions -- such as multi-valued logics -- are needed. Because of this, the study of paradoxes is important for research on multi-valued logics. In this paper, we focus on paradoxes of set theory. Specifically, we show their analogy with the known paradox of causality, and we use this analogy to come up with similar set-theoretic paradoxes.
Number Representation With Varying Number Of Bits, Anuradha Choudhury, Md Ahsanul Haque, Saeefa Rubaiyet Nowmi, Ahmed Ann Noor Ryen, Sabrina Saika, Vladik Kreinovich
Number Representation With Varying Number Of Bits, Anuradha Choudhury, Md Ahsanul Haque, Saeefa Rubaiyet Nowmi, Ahmed Ann Noor Ryen, Sabrina Saika, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In a computer, usually, all real numbers are stored by using the same number of bits: usually, 8 bytes, i.e., 64 bits. This amount of bits enables us to represent numbers with high accuracy -- up to 19 decimal digits. However, in most cases -- whether we process measurement results or whether we process expert-generated membership degrees -- we do not need that accuracy, so most bits are wasted. To save space, it is therefore reasonable to consider representations with varying number of bits. This would save space used for representing numbers themselves, but we would also need to store …
How To Fairly Allocate Safety Benefits Of Self-Driving Cars, Fernando Munoz, Christian Servin, Vladik Kreinovich
How To Fairly Allocate Safety Benefits Of Self-Driving Cars, Fernando Munoz, Christian Servin, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In this paper, we describe how to fairly allocated safety benefits of self-driving cars between drivers and pedestrians -- so as to minimize the overall harm.
Using Known Relation Between Quantities To Make Measurements More Accurate And More Reliable, Niklas Winnewisser, Felix Mett, Michael Beer, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Using Known Relation Between Quantities To Make Measurements More Accurate And More Reliable, Niklas Winnewisser, Felix Mett, Michael Beer, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
Most of our knowledge comes, ultimately, from measurements and from processing measurement results. In this, metrology is very valuable: it teaches us how to gauge the accuracy of the measurement results and of the results of data processing, and how to calibrate the measuring instruments so as to reach the maximum accuracy. However, traditional metrology mostly concentrates on individual measurements. In practice, often, there are also relations between the current values of different quantities. For example, there is usually an known upper bound on the difference between the values of the same quantity at close moments of time or at …