Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Event-Based Approach To Validating Solar Wind Speed Predictions: High-Speed Enhancements In The Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model, M. J. Owens, C. N. Arge, Harlan E. Spence, A. Pembroke

Physics & Astronomy

[1] One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean-square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest …