Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Addressing The Ecological Fallacy With Lagrangian Inference, Michael Schwob

Calvert Undergraduate Research Awards

Most epidemiologists elect to use statistical models that use population-level data to make inference on the spread of some virus or disease. This has become commonplace in the fields of epidemiology and biostatistics since most data used to construct and verify epidemic models are recorded at the population-level. Obtaining inference from a population-level model may be beneficial in studying the spread of disease in a homogeneous population, but the use of such models to describe a heterogeneous population results in inadequate inference. The inaccuracy of these models is further amplified when one tries to make individual-level inference from these population-level …

Analysis Of Cryptotephra At Whitney Mesa Nature Preserve, Henderson, Nevada, Alex Newsom

Calvert Undergraduate Research Awards

Advanced Undergraduate Winner

Cryptotephra (small volcanic shards ranging 20-80 microns in size) were discovered within Unit X of the Las Vegas Formation at Whitney Mesa Nature Preserve, Henderson, Nevada. Cryptotephra are deposited soon after a volcanic eruption and can be used as a dating tool to create narrow time constraints for surrounding sediments. Cryptotephra have many applications but are mainly useful as a dating tool. Their study has important implications for the understanding of the timing of palaeoclimatological and paleoenvironmental events as well as for archaeological studies to date important events in human history.

The Whitney Mesa cryptotephra were correlated …

Dynamic Decision Making And Race Games, Shipra De

Calvert Undergraduate Research Awards

Frequent criticism in dynamic decision making research pertains to the overly complex nature of the decision tasks used in experimentation. To address such concerns we study dynamic decision making with respect to the simple race game Hog, which has a computable optimal decision strategy. In the two-player game of Hog, individuals compete to be the first to reach a designated threshold of points. Players alternate rolling a desired quantity of dice. If the number one appears on any of the dice, the player receives no points for his turn; otherwise, the sum of the numbers appearing on the dice is …