Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Translating Statistical Species-Habitat Models To Interactive Decision Support Tools, Lyndsie S. Wszola, Victoria L. Simonsen, Erica F. Stuber, Caitlyn R. Gillespie, Lindsey N. Messinger, Karie L. Decker, Jeffrey J. Lusk, Christopher F. Jorgensen, Andrew A. Bishop, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Understanding species-habitat relationships is vital to successful conservation, but the tools used to communicate species-habitat relationships are often poorly suited to the information needs of conservation practitioners. Here we present a novel method for translating a statistical species-habitat model, a regression analysis relating ring-necked pheasant abundance to landcover, into an interactive online tool. The Pheasant Habitat Simulator combines the analytical power of the R programming environment with the user-friendly Shiny web interface to create an online platform in which wildlife professionals can explore the effects of variation in local landcover on relative pheasant habitat suitability within spatial scales relevant to …

The Impact Of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent On Cryospheric Snowfall, Alexander Carne

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Satellite observations show that sea ice extent in the Arctic has been declining from 1979 through present day, reaching record minimum extents in 2007 and 2012. Reduced sea ice extent allows for greater expanses of open water to interact with the Arctic atmosphere, potentially leading to changes in the Arctic climate. The greatest declines in Arctic sea ice extent have occurred in summer and autumn. During these seasons, it is likely that the decrease in Arctic sea ice extent led to an increase in atmospheric sensible and latent heat fluxes, possibly leading to increases in Arctic temperature and moisture. Increases …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2017, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Drought Continues to Cause Impacts

Large Butterfly Migration Across the Plains

High Winds Down Corn Across Nebraska

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Flash Droughts: A Review And Assessment Of The Challenges Imposed By Rapid-Onset Droughts In The United States, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Eric D. Hunt, Trent W. Ford, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey B. Basara

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Crystal J. Stiles

HPRCC Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Tribal engagement.................2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

ENSO tool...................................4

Wind River project..................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape- Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains............. 2

Drought takes toll on ag, livestock................ 4

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change............... 5

New drought definition could lead to better preparation.............. 6

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness.............8

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea............9

South African researcher working to forecast drought.................. 10

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa.............. 12

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Physical Water Scarcity Metrics For Monitoring Progress Towards Sdg Target 6.4: An Evaluation Of Indicator 6.4.2 “Level Of Water Stress”, D. Vanhama, A. Y. Hoekstra, Y. Wada, F. Bouraoui, A. De Roo, Mesfin Mekonnen, W. J. Van De Bund, O. Batelaan, P. Pavelic, W. G.M. Bastiaanssen, M. Kummu, J. Rockström, J. Liu, B. Bisselink, P. Ronco, A. Pistocchi, G. Bidoglio

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) dealswith the reduction ofwater scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator.WS indicators compare water use with water availability.We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Wildfires Impact Montana and Beyond

Kansas City, MO Area Flooding

Numerous Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Water Use In Irrigated Agriculture: An Approach To Water Productivity In Drip And Sprinkler Systems, Fernanda Lamede Ferreira De Jesus, Jéssica Garcia Nascimento, Rubens Duarte Coelho, Sergio Nascimento Duarte, Fernando Campos Mendonça

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Irrigation plays an important role in agriculture and the increase in the irrigated area and scarce water resources have encouraged the use of irrigation systems and management systems that increase the efficiency of water use. Thus, maximize water productivity has been one of the most important challenges in agriculture. The present study aimed to relate information on water productivity for two irrigation systems, drip and sprinkler systems, with the purpose of understanding the characteristics of these systems and contributing to the advancement of studies and research carried out in the area. Technological innovations aimed at reducing consumption and increasing water …

Loss Of Buffer Value Due To Aquifer Depletion: The Case Of High Plains Aquifer, Mani Rouhi Rad, Timothy Foster, Nicholas Brozovic

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Existing literature in economics and engineering do not realistically capture the effects of aquifer depletion on loss of profits from agricultural production. While the former literature ignores the physical characteristics of aquifer and the relationship between aquifer levels and groundwater availability, the latter strand of literature does not consider farmers' decisionmaking as a result of aquifer depletion. Misspecification of these relationships and their effect on irrigation decisions can result in misunderstanding the consequences of aquifer depletion and may provide ineffective policies. This paper provides a framework to study the effects of aquifer depletion on the profit of agricultural production. We …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

HPRCC Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Drought update.......................2

Update on regional climate conditions..................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Climate adaptation award announcement.........................4

Workshops update..................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby

Adam Liska Papers

Many people tend to think that the outcome of any nuclear weapons use today will result in an escalatory situation with apocalyptic outcomes for the countries involved. Yet many factors are increasing the probability of the limited use of nuclear weapons (e.g., 1 to 20 warheads) in a range of conflict scenarios. Previous atmospheric model simulations of regional nuclear conflicts employing many relatively small bombs have been estimated to cause a global “nuclear autumn,” with great reductions in agricultural productivity, stratospheric ozone loss, and spread of hazardous radioactive fallout. The totality of these effects would result in widespread damage …

Droughtscape- Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean...............2

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter...........3

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter............. 4

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry.......... 6

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI........... 6

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management........... 8

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes............. 9

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa......... 11

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments........... 12

Mesonets: Mesoscale Weather And Climate Observations For The United States, Rezaul Mahmood, Ryan Boyles, Kevin Brinson, Christopher Fiebrich, Stuart Foster, Ken Hubbard, David Robinson, Jeff Andresen, Dan Leathers

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Mesoscale in situ meteorological observations are essential for better understanding and forecasting the weather and climate and to aid in decision-making by a myriad of stakeholder communities. They include, for example, state environmental and emergency management agencies, the commercial sector, media, agriculture, and the general public. Over the last three decades, a number of mesoscale weather and climate observation networks have become operational. These networks are known as mesonets. Most are operated by universities and receive different levels of funding. It is important to communicate the current status and critical roles the mesonets play. Most mesonets collect standard meteorological data …

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Evaluating The Impacts Of Farmers’ Behaviors On A Hypothetical Agricultural Water Market Based On Double Auction, Erhu Du, Ximing Cai, Barbara Minsker

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Agricultural water markets are considered effective instruments to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and to increase crop production. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how farmers’ behaviors affect the performance of water markets. This study develops an agent-based model to explicitly incorporate farmers’ behaviors, namely irrigation behavior (represented by farmers’ sensitivity to soil water deficit k) and bidding behavior (represented by farmers’ rent seeking l and learning rate b), in a hypothetical water market based on a double auction. The model is applied to the Guadalupe River Basin in Texas to simulate a hypothetical agricultural water market under …

Landowner And Practitioner Perspectives On Private Land Conservation Programs, Michelle L. Lute, Caitlyn R. Gillespie, Dustin R. Martin, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Efforts to reverse declines in native grasslands benefit from agricultural policies that encourage private land conservation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) improved conservation across landscapes but enrollment has declined. We used sequential exploratory mixed methods to compare landowner and conservation practitioners’ perceptions, evaluate perceived benefits, and identify potential improvements to CRP. Focus groups of practitioners informed a quantitative survey of landowners who had properties >160 total acres in Nebraska. Results suggest potential misalignment in perceptions between practitioners and landowners. Practitioners were concerned that conservation, especially of wildlife, was secondary to profit. But the majority of landowners …

Regime Shifts And Panarchies In Regional Scale Social-Ecological Water Systems, Lance Gunderson, Barbara Cosens, Brian C. Chaffin, Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold, Alexander K. Fremier, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Robin Kundis Craig, Hannah Gosnell, Hannah E. Birge, Craig R. Allen, Melinda Harm Benson, Ryan R. Morrison, Mark C. Stone, Joseph Hamm, Kristine Nemec, Edella C. Schlager, Dagmar Llewellyn

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

HPRCC Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape- Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability.......... 2

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps.......... 3

California pulls out of drought............. 4

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map............... 6

Drought center releases 2016 annual report.............. 7

Book chapter focuses on drought and health................ 8

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers...............9

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions.............. 10

Modeling Gross Primary Production Of Midwest Maize And Soybean Croplands With Satellite And Gridded Weather Data, Gunnar Malek-Madani

Department of Geography: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The gross primary production (GPP) metric is useful in determining trends in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Models that determine GPP utilizing the light use efficiency (LUE) approach in conjunction with biophysical parameters that account for local weather conditions and crop specific factors are beneficial in that they combine the accuracy of the biophysical model with the versatility of the LUE model. One such model developed using in situ data was adapted to operate with remote sensing derived leaf area index (LAI) data and gridded weather datasets. The model, known as the Light Use Efficiency GPP Model (EGM), uses a four …

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Homestead National Monument Of America, Bat Acoustic Monitoring, September 2016, Daniel S. Licht

United States National Park Service: Publications

Abstract

Homestead National Monument of America is a 211-acre park located in an agrarian landscape in southeastern Nebraska. From September 16 to October 1, 2016, park staff deployed acoustic monitors at three sites in the park for purposes of monitoring night-time bat activity. The three sites averaged 179, 48, and 33 bat detections per night. Night-time bat activity was generally highest in the 1-2 hours following sunset.

Based on the acoustic surveys the big brown (Eptesicus fuscus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), northern long-eared (Myotis septentrionalis) and evening bats (Nycticeius humeralis) were present at the …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Effects Of Initial Aquifer Conditions On Economic Benefits From Groundwater Conservation, T. Foster, N. Brozovic, A. P. Butler

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Worldwide, there is growing recognition of the need to reduce agricultural groundwater use in response to rapid rates of aquifer depletion. To date, however, few studies have evaluated how benefits of conservation vary along an aquifer’s depletion pathway. To address this question, we develop an integrated modeling framework that couples an agro-economic model of farmers’ field-level irrigation decisionmaking with a borehole-scale groundwater flow model. Unique to this framework is the explicit consideration of the dynamic reductions in well yields that occur as an aquifer is depleted, and how these changes in intraseasonal groundwater supply affect farmers’ ability to manage production …

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 17, 2017, Richard Tinker

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 17, 2017 (1/17/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 10, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 10, 2017 (1/10/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

The Irreversible Momentum Of Clean Energy, Barack Obama

US Department of Energy Publications

The release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to human activity is increasing global average surface air temperatures, disrupting weather patterns, and acidifying the ocean. Left unchecked, the continued growth of GHG emissions could cause global average temperatures to increase by another 4°C or more by 2100 and by 1.5 to 2 times as much in many midcontinent and far northern locations. Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change is increasingly and disturbingly clear, there is still debate about the proper course for U.S. policy—a debate that is very much on display …