Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Forest Drought Response Index (Fordri): A New Combined Model To Monitor Forest Drought In The Eastern United States, Tsegaye Tadesse, David Y. Hollinger, Yared A. Bayissa, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Beichen Zhang, Getachew Demissie, Brian D. Wardlow, Gil Bohrer, Kenneth L. Clark, Ankur R. Desai, Lianhong Gu, Asko Noormets, Kimberly A. Novick, Andrew D. Richardson

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis …

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

A Detailed Assessment Of Groundwater Quality In The Kabul Basin, Afghanistan, And Suitability For Future Development, Hussain Ali Jawadi, Jay Sagin, Daniel D. Snow

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Abstract: Kabul is one of the most populated cities in Afghanistan and providing resources to support this population in an arid climate presents a serious environmental challenge. The current study evaluated the quality of local Kabul Basin groundwater to determine its suitability water for drinking and irrigation purposes now and into the future. This aim was aided through groundwater parameter assessment as well as determination ofWater Quality Index (WQI) developed from 15 observation points near the city. The results of our physicochemical analysis illustrate that groundwater in the majority of areas of the Kabul Basin is not generally suitable for …

A Detailed Assessment Of Groundwater Quality In The Kabul Basin, Afghanistan, And Suitability For Future Development, Hussain Ali Jawadi, Jay Sagin, Daniel D. Snow

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Kabul is one of the most populated cities in Afghanistan and providing resources to support this population in an arid climate presents a serious environmental challenge. The current study evaluated the quality of local Kabul Basin groundwater to determine its suitability water for drinking and irrigation purposes now and into the future. This aim was aided through groundwater parameter assessment as well as determination ofWater Quality Index (WQI) developed from 15 observation points near the city. The results of our physicochemical analysis illustrate that groundwater in the majority of areas of the Kabul Basin is not generally suitable for human …

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …

An Open-Sourced, Web-Based Application To Improve Our Ability To Understand Hunter And Angler Purchasing Behavior From License Data, Nathaniel B. Price, Christopher J. Chizinski, Joseph J. Fontaine, Kevin L. Pope, Micaela Rahe, Jeff Rawlinson

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

State fish and wildlife agencies rely on hunters and anglers (i.e., sportspersons) to fund management actions through revenue generated from license sales and excise taxes on hunting and fishing equipment. There is a need to develop new techniques that bridge the information gap on participation and provide agencies with an understanding of sportspersons at a resolution that can more directly inform efforts to engage sportspersons. Monitoring sportsperson participation using information about their license-purchasing behavior has the potential to reveal important patterns in recruitment (first-time purchase of a hunting or fishing license), retention (continued purchase of licenses across multiple years), and …

Development And Performance Assessment Of An Integrated Vermifiltration Based Treatment System For The Treatment Of Feedlot Runoff, Rajneesh Singh, Matteo D'Alessio, Yulie Meneses, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Brian Woodbury, Chittaranjan Ray

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to treat feedlot runoff by developing an ecologically sustainable, affordable, and resilient treatment system having a relatively long life span. Three horizontal flow soil biofilters were utilized in this study: 1) without earthworms and plants (Biofilter (BF)), 2) with earthworms only (Vermifilter (VF)), and 3) with earthworms and plants (Macrophyte Assisted Vermifilter (MAVF)). The experiments were conducted with a hydraulic retention time of four days using Lumbricus terestrris earthworms and Carex frankii wetland plants. The average COD removal from the BF, VF, and MAVF were 23.2–30.4%, 61.4–69.1%, and 68.3–78.1%, respectively. Average TN removal efficiencies …

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Helm Smith, Andrew J. Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael J. Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …

Climate Change And Market-Based Insurance Feedbacks, Eric R. Holley, Adam Liska, Cory Walters, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Michael Hayes, Max J. Rudolph, Donald A. Wilhite

Adam Liska Papers

Climatic events have accounted for 91% of $1.05 trillion in insured costs for global catastrophic events from 1980 to 2016. Costs are driven by socio-economic development and increased frequency and severity of climatic disasters driven by climate change. Government policies to reduce systemic risk (e.g., cap-and-trade, carbon tax) have been a predominant approach for mitigation and adaptation. Alternatively, market-based incentives for climate change adaptation and mitigation already operate via the insurance industry to lessen impacts on society. Insurance feedbacks include changes in 1) premiums and insurance policies, 2) non-coverage, and 3) policy making and litigation. Alongside government policies, insurance feedbacks …

Legacy And Current Pesticide Residues In Syr Darya, Kazakhstan: Contamination Status, Seasonal Variation And Preliminary Ecological Risk Assessment, Daniel D. Snow, P. Chakraborty, B. Uralbekov, B. Satybaldiev, J. Brett Sallach, L. M. Thornton Hampton, M. Jeffries, A. S. Kolok, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

The Syr Darya is one of two major rivers in Central Asia supplying critical fresh water to the Aral Sea. In spite of the river’s importance and agriculturally-intensive history, few studies have provided a modern evaluation of and the occurrence of pesticide residues potential effects to aquatic life. The primary goal of this investigation was to determine seasonal variations in ambient concentrations of modern and legacy pesticides in bottom sediment and water of the Syr Darya in Kazakhstan (KZ) downstream from an agriculturally-intensive watershed in Uzbekistan. Grab samples and passive samplers were used at five remote sampling stations during June …

Monitoring Residual Soil Moisture And Its Association To The Long-Term Variability Of Rainfall Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin In Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring soil moisture and its association with rainfall variability is important to comprehend the hydrological processes and to set proper agricultural water use management to maximize crop growth and productivity. In this study, the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture product was applied to assess the dynamics of residual soil moisture in autumn (September to November) and its response to the long-term variability of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) of Ethiopia from 1992 to 2017. The basin was found to have autumn soil moisture (ASM) ranging from 0.09–0.38 m³/m³, …

Climate Change Impacts The Subsurface Transport Of Atrazine And Estrone Originating From Agricultural Production Activities, Renys Enrique Barrios, Simin Akbariyeh, Chuyang Liu, Khalid Muzamil Gani, Margarita T. Kovalchuk, Xu Li, Yusong Li, Daniel D. Snow, Zhenghong Tang, John Gates, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Climate change will impact soil properties such as soil moisture, organic carbon and temperature and changes in these properties will influence the sorption, biodegradation and leaching of trace organic contaminants to groundwater. In this study, we conducted a modeling case study to evaluate atrazine and estrone transport in the subsurface under current and future climate conditions at a field site in central Nebraska. According to the modeling results, in the future, enhanced evapotranspiration and increased average air temperature may cause drier soil conditions, which consequently reduces the biodegradation of atrazine and estrone in the water phase. On the other hand, …

Vertebrates On The Brink As Indicators Of Biological Annihilation And The Sixth Mass Extinction, Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, Peter H. Raven

Harold W. Manter Laboratory: Library Materials

The ongoing sixth mass species extinction is the result of the destruction of component populations leading to eventual extirpation of entire species. Populations and species extinctions have severe implications for society through the degradation of ecosystem services. Here we assess the extinction crisis from a different perspective. We examine 29,400 species of terrestrial vertebrates, and determine which are on the brink of extinction because they have fewer than 1,000 individuals. There are 515 species on the brink (1.7% of the evaluated vertebrates). Around 94% of the populations of 77 mammal and bird species on the brink have been lost in …

Combined Use Of Sentinel‐1 Sar And Landsat Sensors Products For Residual Soil Moisture Retrieval Over Agricultural Fields In The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem, Assefa M. Melesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of sentinel‐1 SAR sensor products and the contribution of soil roughness parameters to estimate volumetric residual soil moisture (RSM) in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin, Ethiopia. The backscatter contribution of crop residue water content was estimated using Landsat sensor product and the water cloud model (WCM). The surface roughness parameters were estimated from the Oh and Baghdadi models. A feed‐forward artificial neural network (ANN) method was tested for its potential to translate SAR backscattering and surface roughness input variables to RSM values. The model was trained for three inversion …

A Hydrometeorological Assessment Of The Historic 2019 Flood Of Nebraska, Iowa, And South Dakota, Paul Xavier Flanagan, Rezaul Mahmood, Natalie Umphlett, Erin M.K. Haacker, Chittaranjan Ray, Bill Sorensen, Martha Shulski, Crystal J. Stiles, David Pearson, Paul Fajman

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During early 2019, a series of events set the stage for devastating floods in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. When the floodwaters hit, dams and levees failed, cutting off towns, while destroying roads, bridges, and rail lines, further exacerbating the crisis. Lives were lost and thousands of cattle were stranded. Estimates indicate that the cost of the flooding has topped $3 billion as of August 2019, with this number expected to rise.

After a warm and wet start to winter, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota endured anomalously low temperatures and record-breaking snowfall. By March …

What Is The U.S. Drought Monitor?, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

The USDA uses the map as a trigger for programs that help agricultural producers recover from drought and other natural disasters:

Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)

Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm Raised Fish Program (ELAP)

Fast-Track Secretarial Disaster Declarations

Emergency Loans Program

The U.S. Drought Monitor Network: Improving Drought Early Warning, The U.S. Drought Monitor Network

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

WHAT IS THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NETWORK?

WHO ARE THE OBSERVERS?

WHAT BENEFITS?

The network in action

HOW DOES IT WORK?

WHO CREATES THE MAP?

A Social–Ecological Odyssey In Fisheries And Wildlife Management, Andrew K. Carlson, William W. Taylor, Melissa R. Cronin, Mitchell J. Eaton, Mark A. Kaemingk, Andrea J. Reid, Ashley Trudeau

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Aldo Leopold, famous ecologist and “father” of North American wildlife management, once said, “These are two things that interest me: the relation of people to each other, and the relation of people to land” (Leopold 1947). Ever prescient, Leopold recognized that natural resource management is fundamentally about humans and their relationship with nature well before conservation became an established way of thinking, much less the bedrock of entire professions. Similarly, amid the Green Revolution to increase agricultural production, in part, through widespread use of pesticides, renowned environmentalist and journalist Rachel Carson noted that we are all “a part of nature, …

Record Fledging Count From A Seven-Egg Clutch In The Cooper’S Hawk (Accipiter Cooperii), Robert N. Rosenfield, Sarah A. Sonsthagen, Ann Riddle-Berntsen, Evan Kuhel

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Cooper’s Hawks (Accipiter cooperii) typically lay 3–5 eggs per clutch, rarely 6 eggs, and there are 2 accounts of 7-egg clutches and 1 record of a maximum 8-egg clutch for the species. Brood sizes of 3–5 young are common and the previous maximum brood count is 6 young. However, in 2019, we found an urban nest in Stevens Point, Wisconsin, with 7 eggs that resulted in a record high of 7 fledglings. We genetically confirmed that the attending male sired all the offspring and the attending female laid all 7 eggs. Larger body size of the tending adults …

Building Adaptive Capacity In Tribal Communities Of The Missouri River Basin To Manage Drought And Climate Extremes: A Case Study From The Wind River Indian Reservation, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie Umphlett, Mitch Cottenoir

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Native American peoples of the Northern and Central Plains have long endured harsh climate conditions, such as floods and droughts, and they possess valuable traditional knowledges that have enhanced their resilience to these extreme events. However, in recent times, limited capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate combined with a lack of resources have increased tribes’ vulnerability to climate extremes and their associated impacts. In response, a number of projects have been developed to assist tribes with their self-identified climate- and drought-related needs, particularly in the context of on-reservation decision-making. In this case study, we present an engagement strategy …

Remediation Strategies To Reduce Heavy Metal Uptake In Lettuce Grown In Contaminated Urban Soil, Ryley Thomas

UCARE Research Products

Urban soils are increasingly used to produce food for local consumption, which requires at the same time management strategies that prevent the plant uptake of potentially present contaminants. This study was conducted to test different soil amendments for their ability to retain lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) within the soil matrix. The analyzed soil was taken from a potential community garden lot near a railroad in Lincoln, NE where elevated concentrations in Pb and As had been detected. Ponderosa pine biochar and spent coffee grounds were used as soil additives because of their documented chemical reactivity towards soil cations or …

Comprehensive And Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories For Nebraska And The Midwest As Baselines For Climate Change Mitigation, Eric R. Holley

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Climate change is the paramount challenge of today for a sustainable future. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the associated risks and impacts on society. Using the EPA’s SIT and literature review, comprehensive GHG-emissions inventories were developed for the state of Nebraska over 25 years (1990-2015) and agricultural GHG emissions inventories were developed for the Midwest U.S for one year (2016). Nebraska’s net emissions increased from 56.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO₂e) in 1990 to 87.4 MMtCO₂e in 2016. Agriculture was found to be the sector with the most …

Comparative Physiology Of Honey Bees (Apis Mellifera L.) Exposed To Chlorantraniliprole, Jennifer Williams

Department of Entomology: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

One outstanding threat to the honey bee, Apis mellifera L., is the unintended exposure of these pollinators to agricultural pesticides. Anthranilic diamides, such as chlorantraniliprole, work in target pests through activation of the ryanodine receptor causing rapid feeding cessation, lethargy, paralysis, and eventual death. Chlorantraniliprole exhibits low acute toxicity to honey bees but relatively little information exists regarding effects of chlorantraniliprole exposure beyond mortality. The acute toxicity and metabolic detoxification enzyme activities following oral exposure were determined in the honey bee and the model crop pest, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda, J.E. Smith). Additionally, chlorantraniliprole effects on honey bee …

Understanding Sportsperson Retention And Reactivation Through License Purchasing Behavior, Matthew P. Hinrichs, Nathaniel B. Price, Matthew P. Gruntorad, Kevin L. Pope, Joseph J. Fontaine, Christopher J. Chizinski

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Most state and provincial fish and wildlife agencies have access to important information about patterns in sportsperson participation through their license databases. Using transaction data from Nebraska Game and Parks Commission’s electronic hunting and fishing license system, we tracked license purchases of Nebraska, USA, resident license holders in 2010 through 2017. We categorized sportspersons by gender and yearly purchases as hunting only (Hunter), fishing only (Angler), a combination of hunting and fishing (Hunter–Angler), or no purchases (Inactive). The probability of movement among active sportsperson groups was limited and varied little based on initial group participation. The Angler group had the …

Spatial And Temporal Behavioral Differences Between Angler-Access Types, Derek Kane, Mark A. Kaemingk, Christopher J. Chizinski, Kevin L. Pope

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Recreational angler surveys typically collect information on how anglers access a fishery. Yet, it is unclear how this information is useful for fisheries management and conservation. The objective of this study was to compare behavior (e.g., party size, time fished, and numbers of fish released and harvested) of bank and boat anglers, representing two angler-access types. Bank and boat anglers were surveyed across 29 Nebraska waterbodies from April through October, 2007–2017. We documented behavioral differences between bank and boat anglers that varied as a function of waterbody size and season. Patterns of party size, time fished, and numbers of fish …

Impacts Of Human Recreation On Nutrient Availability And Periphyton Abundance On The Niobrara River, Matthew Chen, Jessica Corman, Sydney Kimnach, Kayla Vondracek

UCARE Research Products

In freshwater ecosystems, eutrophication can create many problems. Excess nutrients, like nitrogen or phosphorus, promote algal or cyanobacterial growth. This growth also leads to increased organic matter production and decomposition, a process that can reduce oxygen concentration in the water. When this happens, species diversity declines, transparency of the water declines, and anoxia may lead to fish kills . Of particular concern is the possibility of cyanobacteria blooms that create compounds toxic for humans. Many of the waters across Nebraska receive excessive nutrients from human activities, largely related to agriculture (Dickey 1982). However, there is one river, the Niobrara River, …

Weather And Exposure Period Affect Coyote Detection At Camera Traps, Anastasia E. Madsen, Lucia Corral Hurtado, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Abstract Camera traps are an increasingly popular means to monitor wildlife populations. However, like other techniques for measuring populations, camera traps are subject to sources of error that may bias population estimates. Past studies accounting for detection error have failed to account for a simple but potentially widely pervasive source of environmental error: weather conditions. Using 5,108,416 photographs from 804 scent‐lured camera traps deployed in western Nebraska, USA, during spring and autumn of 2014 and 2015, we analyzed the relationship between weather conditions (barometric pressure, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature) and coyote (Canis latrans) detection probability. Using binomial …

Utilizing Objective Drought Severity Thresholds To Improve Drought Monitoring, Zachary T. Leasor, Steven M. Quiring, Mark D. Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Drought severity is frequently classified using the categories established by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study evaluates whether the thresholds for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) used by the USDM accurately classify drought severity. This study uses the SPI based on PRISM precipitation data from 1900 to 2015 to evaluate drought severity in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The results show that the fixed SPI thresholds for the USDM drought categories may lead to a systematic underestimation of drought severity in arid regions. To address this issue, objective drought …

A Design For A Sustained Assessment Of Climate Forcing And Feedbacks Related To Land Use And Land Cover Change, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood

HPRCC Personnel Publications

L and use and land cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in the climate system. Many studies have documented the impacts of LULCC on local, regional, and global climate. The National Climate Assessment Report (Melillo et al. 2014) identifies LULCC as a “cross cutting” issue of future climate change studies. This report, and the previous U.S. Climate Change Science Program strategic plan (2003), noted that land use and land cover (LULC) and its feedback is an important source of uncertainty within the climate system (Melillo et al. 2014). As a result, the report calls for a better understanding of …