Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Estimated Probability Of Becoming A Case Of Drug Dependence In Relation To Duration Of Drug-Taking Experience: A Functional Analysis Approach, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, James C. Anthony

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Measured as elapsed time from first use to dependence syndrome onset, the estimated "induction interval" for cocaine is thought to be short relative to the cannabis interval, but little is known about risk of becoming dependent during first months after onset of use. Virtually all published estimates for this facet of drug dependence epidemiology are from life histories elicited years after first use. To improve estimation, we turn to new month-wise data from nationally representative samples of newly incident drug users identified via probability sampling and confidential computer-assisted self-interviews for the United States National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, …

Inter-Relationships Linking Probability Of Becoming A Case Of Nicotine Dependence With Frequency Of Tobacco Cigarette Smoking, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, James C. Anthony

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

INTRODUCTION: Once smoking starts, some tobacco cigarette smokers (TCS) can make very rapid transitions into tobacco dependence syndromes (TCD). With adjustment for smoking frequency, we posit female excess risk for this rapid-onset TCD. In a novel application of functional analysis for tobacco research, we estimate four Hill function parameters and plot TCD risk against a gradient of smoking frequency, as observed quite soon after smoking onset.

METHODS: In aggregate, the National Surveys of Drug Use and Health, 2004-2013, identified 1546 newly incident TCS in cross-sectional research, each with standardized TCD assessment.

RESULTS: Hill function estimates contradict our apparently over-simplistic hypothesis. …

Dealing With Zero-Numerators In Estimating Drug-Dependence Chances: A Bayesian Approach, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, Fernando A. Wagner, James C. Anthony

Biostatistics Presentations

Aims: At CPDD 2015, we applied parametric Hill functions to estimate the probability of drug dependence in relation to the duration of drug-taking experience. A problem we and others have encountered in the estimation of risk of becoming a drug dependence case is an observed point estimate of zero – the so-called “zero-numerator problem.” This problem can be easily observed in certain low risk subgroups even when the sample is large (e.g., the incidence of heroin dependence among 12 year old newly incident heroin users) or with small subgroup sample sizes. In these instances, tan observed zero point estimate …

From Drug Use To Dependence: A Multiparametric Approach, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, James C. Anthony

Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya

One of the hallmarks of a drug dependence (DD) process is an escalation in rate of drug self-administration (DSA). We seek to extend current biostatistical approaches for epidemiological research on drug dependence processes via an investigation of a four-parameter dose-effect curve (DEC).