Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Short Term Forecasting Of Solar Radiation, Ashwin Thota, Bradley Blanchard, Lijju Mathew, Paritosh Rai, Sid Swarupananda

SMU Data Science Review

This paper details how to predict solar radiation at a location for the next few hours using machine learning techniques like Facebook’s Prophet, and Amazon’s DeepAR+. Multiple techniques like AutoRegressive (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) have been used to forecast solar radiation, but they lack accuracy and are not scalable. Whereas Prophet, and Amazon’s DeepAR+ are scalable, accurate, and easily integrated into other machine learning techniques. This will be the first time where the combination of these techniques along with Linear Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost and Decision Tree will be leveraged to forecast solar radiation for the short term. Predicting …