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Direct Tests Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Study Of Italian Entrepreneurs’ Inflationary Expectations (1980-1988), Claudio Lupi

Claudio Lupi

The primary concern of this paper is to test the rational expectations hypothesis for Italian entrepreneurs' inflationary expectations between 1980 and 1988 using monthly observed expectations. Particular care is devoted to analyzing the problems arising when multiperiod expectations and a nonwhite noise measurement error in the expectations series are considered. The empirical analysis is carried out using cross correlations on ARIMA residuals and transfer function models. This technique seems to be particularly appealing for rationality testing.