Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Open Access Articles

Wine Purchase Decisions And Consumption Behaviors: Insights From A Probability Sample Drawn In Auckland, New Zealand, Peter Danaher

Peter Danaher

No abstract provided.

Findings From Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods For Reducing Forecast Error, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions. Based on this evidence, I summarize the progress made over the past quarter century with respect to methods for reducing forecasting error. Seven well-established methods have been shown to improve accuracy: combining forecasts and Delphi help for all types of data; causal modeling, judgmental bootstrapping and structured judgment help with cross-sectional data; and causal models and trend-damping help with time-series data. Promising methods for cross-sectional data include damped causality, simulated interaction, structured analogies, and judgmental decomposition; for time-series data, they include segmentation, rule-based …

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Comparison Of Conjoint Analysis, Multiple Regression Models With Person Vectors And Profile Analysis To Assess Important Factors Used To Select Colleges, John Fraas, Isadore Newman

John W. Fraas

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effectiveness of the traditional conjoint analysis approach to the multiple regression approach that includes person vectors and profile analysis. It was expected that the more sophisticated models would increase the effectiveness in terms of its shrinkage estimates and the accuracy of its predictability of two holdout groups. The data source consisted of a sample of 100 students who rated eight colleges on five attributes -- quality of education, financial aid, quality of dorm life, student/faculty relations, and social life.