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Articles 1 - 30 of 58
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Forecasting By Extrapolation: Conclusions From Twenty-Five Years Of Research, J. Scott Armstrong
Forecasting By Extrapolation: Conclusions From Twenty-Five Years Of Research, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.
Communication Of Research On Forecasting: The Journal, J. Scott Armstrong
Communication Of Research On Forecasting: The Journal, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
It seems trivial to point out that one of the major goals of the International Institute of Forecasters is to communicate research findings. In particular, the IIF tries to foster communication among researchers, between researchers and practitioners, across nationalities, and across disciplines. We have two major vehicles for this: the annual symposiums and the journal. This editorial examines the results that we have had to date with our journals.
Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Daniel Kahnemann, Paul Slovic, And Amos Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics And Biases, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings (iii) what is new (iv) how the book is organized (v) advice on using the book, and (vi) who should read the book.
Review Of Allen Tough, Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach To Helping People Change, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Allen Tough, Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach To Helping People Change, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Intentional Changes is an important book. It suggests different approaches to the way in which we try to implement change. It provides, as do most important books, much that you will disagree with. Tough’s conclusions are based on studies that are likely to be unknown to you. The book is interesting, well written, and short.
Index Methods For Forecasting: An Application To American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cúzan
Index Methods For Forecasting: An Application To American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cúzan
J. Scott Armstrong
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential election since 1860, retrospectively through 1980 and prospectively from 1984-2004. Given this record, it seems sensible to examine this index method. We tested how well the Keys model predicted the winner of the popular vote, and also how closely it forecasted the actual percentage of the two-party vote going to the incumbent ticket. The index method performs well compared with regression models. It also offers the opportunity to incorporate many policy variables. Index methods can be applied to various choice problems faced by …
Significance Tests Harm Progress In Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Significance Tests Harm Progress In Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm scientific progress. Efforts to find exceptions to this conclusion have, to date, turned up none. Even when done correctly, significance tests are dangerous. I show that summaries of scientific research do not require tests of statistical significance. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining an application to the M3-Competition. Although the authors of that reanalysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggest that the original M3 was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors and that the selection of …
Effectiveness Of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys To Members Of Multinational Professional Groups, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Thomas Yokum
Effectiveness Of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys To Members Of Multinational Professional Groups, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Thomas Yokum
J. Scott Armstrong
Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.)prepaid monetary incentive increased the response rates, and it was as effective for members as for nonmembers (gains of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively). Surprisingly, the U.S. dollar monetary incentive had a greater effect on foreign than U.S. response rates (gains of 32.6% and 12.9%, respectively).
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with doing the best for oneself. The research comes from many fields, but primarily from education, sports, the performing arts,and psychology. The results have been consistent, clear-cut, and surprising: competition typically results in less creativity, poorer performance, and reduced satisfaction.
How To Make Better Forecasts And Decisions: Avoid Face-To-Face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong
How To Make Better Forecasts And Decisions: Avoid Face-To-Face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the successes and failures of markets (an example of a "crowd") and to understand why the average opinion of a crowd is frequently more accurate than the opinions of most of its individual members. In this expanded review of the book, Scott Armstrong asks a question of immediate relevance to forecasters: Are the traditional face-to-face meetings an effective way to elicit forecasts from forecast crowds (i.e. teams)? Armstrong doesn’t believe so. Quite the contrary, he explains why he considers face-to-face meetings a detriment to good forecasting …
Are Null Results Becoming An Endangered Species In Marketing?, Raymond Hubbard, J. Scott Armstrong
Are Null Results Becoming An Endangered Species In Marketing?, Raymond Hubbard, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers using statistical significance tests sampled from the Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, and Journal of Consumer Research between 1974 and 1989, only 7.8% failed to reject the null hypothesis. The percentage of null results declined by one-half from the 1970s to the 1980s. The JM and the JMR registered marked decreases. The small percentage of insignificant results could not be explained as being due to inadequate statistical …
Advocacy As A Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth, J. Scott Armstrong
Advocacy As A Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
A committee created a fictitious author, Ian Mitroff, who published a paper that violated scientific guidelines. The Mitroff paper recommended an advocacy strategy for scientific research; it said that scientists should vigorously defend their initial hypothesis. I use the advocacy strategy to scientifically prove that Mitroff does not exist.
The Panalba Role-Playing Case, J. Scott Armstrong
The Panalba Role-Playing Case, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
The Panalba-Role Playing Case was designed to get participants to examine their behavior in a situation where their role can lead them to act in a socially irresponsible manner. A description of the case is provided along with instructions to the administrator. Much research has been done on this case, allowing subjects to compare their behavior with that of previous subjects.
Forecasting For Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
Forecasting For Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
J. Scott Armstrong
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, …
The Graffiti Solution, J. Scott Armstrong
The Graffiti Solution, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to visual pollution. City governments spend vast sums in an effort to clean the ubiquitous graffiti from urban walls. I suggest that the "cleansing strategy" is an expensive, ineffective way of dealing with the problem; well-known management techniques can solve the problem more efficiently.
Introduction To Paper And Commentaries On The Delphi Technique, J. Scott Armstrong
Introduction To Paper And Commentaries On The Delphi Technique, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Rowe and Wright’s paper "The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool" was initially reviewed by four experts in the area of judgmental forecasting. Following three rounds of revisions, the paper was accepted for publication. It was then sent for commentary by Professors Ayton, Ferrell, and Stewart. The lead paper should be of interest to researchers because it identifies important aspects of the Delphi procedure that have not yet been studied. In particular, there are few validation studies and these often omit descriptions of the relevant conditions. This makes it difficult to identify which aspects of Delphi are related to accuracy …
Research Needs In Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
Research Needs In Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high number of citations to papers published about research on forecasting, and upon the number of subscriptions for journals devoted to forecasting. The supply of research papers is also large, following a rapid growth in the 1960s and 1970s. This research has produced important findings. Despite this, a comparison of published research versus the needs expressed in two surveys of academics and practitioners showed that numerous gaps still exist. A review of the literature also supported this conclusion that the research being produced does not match …
Review Of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression Of 1990, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression Of 1990, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, "I told you so." If it doesn't occur, you say, "It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them." How can you lose? When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax.
Brand Trial After A Credibility Change, J. Scott Armstrong, David B. Montgomery
Brand Trial After A Credibility Change, J. Scott Armstrong, David B. Montgomery
J. Scott Armstrong
In most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in terms of significantly differentiated products. The staggering array of manufacturers' claims and counter claims of brand superiority seems to leave consumers somewhat bewildered or cynical. What would happen if the credibility of the appeals made on behalf of one brand should suddenly be enhanced by a seemingly legitimate authority? More specifically, what would characterize consumers who would respond to such a change in credibility?
Decomposition By Causal Forces: A Procedure For Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, J. Thomas Yokum
Decomposition By Causal Forces: A Procedure For Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, J. Thomas Yokum
J. Scott Armstrong
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always subject to consistent forces that point in the same direction. Some are affected by conflicting causal forces; we refer to these as complex times series. It would seem that forecasting these times series would be easier if one could decompose the series to eliminate the effects of the conflicts. Given forecasts subject to high uncertainty, we hypothesized that a time series could be effectively decomposed under two conditions: …
On The Interpretation Of Factor Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Peer Soelberg
On The Interpretation Of Factor Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Peer Soelberg
J. Scott Armstrong
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two-thirds of the papers provide no measure of reliability. In fact, some papers did not even provide sufficient information to allow for replication. To improve the current situation some …
Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions In Measuring Intentions To Purchase, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry Overton
Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions In Measuring Intentions To Purchase, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry Overton
J. Scott Armstrong
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their future purchasing plans has had considerable predictive success [1, 2, 4]. Any attempt to apply such "intention to purchase" methods to forecast demand for proposed products or services must determine some way to convey product information to the potential consumer [3]. Indeed, all the prospective consumer knows about the product or service is what he may infer from the information given to him by the researcher. This paper presents a study of the effect upon intention to purchase of this seemingly crucial element—the extent and …
Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its updated, Fourth Assessment Report, forecasts. The Report was commissioned at great cost in order to provide policy recommendations to governments. It included predictions of dramatic and harmful increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked, are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is "no." To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one …
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge For Time Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge For Time Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
J. Scott Armstrong
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select and combine forecasts. We use five categories to express causal impacts upon trends: growth, decay, supporting, opposing, and regressing. An identification of causal forces aided in the determination of weights for combining extrapolation forecasts. These weights improved average ex ante forecast accuracy when tested on 104 annual economic and demographic time series. Gains in accuracy were greatest when (1) the causal forces were clearly specified and (2) stronger causal …
Management Science: What Does It Have To Do With Management Or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
Management Science: What Does It Have To Do With Management Or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
This paper is an edited version of the College of Business Studies Silver Jubilee Commemoration lecture, given as part of celebrations recognizing 25 years of teaching and research in the Faculty of Business Studies, now the College of Business, at Massey University.
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses and includes commercial forecasting programs as competitors. To judge where to go from here, I step back to look at the M-Competitions as a whole. I discuss the advantages of the M-Competitions in hopes that they will be retained, describe how to gain additional benefit from future competitions, and finally, describe a low-cost approach to competitions.
Return Postage In Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Edward J. Lusk
Return Postage In Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Edward J. Lusk
J. Scott Armstrong
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those derived from traditional reviews. This meta-analysis indicated that business reply postage is seldom cost effective because first class postage yields an additional 9% return. Business reply rates were lower than for other first class …
Effects Of Portfolio Planning Methods On Decision Making: Experimental Results, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
Effects Of Portfolio Planning Methods On Decision Making: Experimental Results, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
J. Scott Armstrong
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six administrators ran experiments on 27 occasions in six countries over a five-year period. Information about the BCG matrix increased the subjects' likelihood of selecting the project that was clearly less profitable. Of subjects exposed to the BCG matrix, 64% selected the unprofitable investment. Of subjects who used the BCG matrix in their analysis, 87% selected the less profitable investment.
Findings From Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods For Reducing Forecast Error, J. Scott Armstrong
Findings From Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods For Reducing Forecast Error, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions. Based on this evidence, I summarize the progress made over the past quarter century with respect to methods for reducing forecasting error. Seven well-established methods have been shown to improve accuracy: combining forecasts and Delphi help for all types of data; causal modeling, judgmental bootstrapping and structured judgment help with cross-sectional data; and causal models and trend-damping help with time-series data. Promising methods for cross-sectional data include damped causality, simulated interaction, structured analogies, and judgmental decomposition; for time-series data, they include segmentation, rule-based …
Evidence On The Value Of Strategic Planning In Marketing: How Much Planning Should A Marketing Planner Plan?, J. Scott Armstrong, David J. Reibstein
Evidence On The Value Of Strategic Planning In Marketing: How Much Planning Should A Marketing Planner Plan?, J. Scott Armstrong, David J. Reibstein
J. Scott Armstrong
What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This paper reviews the evidence. This includes two tests of face validity. First, we use the market test: Are formal procedures used for marketing planning? Next, we examine expert prescriptions: What do they say is the best way to plan? More important than face validity, however, are tests of construct or predictive validity: What empirical evidence exists on the relative value of formal and informal approaches to marketing planning? The paper concludes with suggestions on the types of research that would be most useful for measuring …
Identification Of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals Through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
Identification Of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals Through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
J. Scott Armstrong
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend are called contrary series. We hypothesized that contrary series would have asymmetric forecast errors, with larger errors in the direction of the expected trend. Using annual series that contained minimal information about causality, we examined 671 contrary forecasts. As expected, most (81%) of the errors were in the direction of the causal forces. Also as expected, the asymmetries were more likely for longer forecast horizons; for six-year-ahead forecasts, 89% …