Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Articles 1 - 6 of 6

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar Feb 2016

Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar

Adrian Gepp

Financial distress and then the consequent failure of a business is usually an extremely costly and disruptive event. Statistical financial distress prediction models attempt to predict whether a business will experience financial distress in the future. Discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been the most popular approaches, but there is also a large number of alternative cutting - edge data mining techniques that can be used. In this paper, a semi-parametric Cox survival analysis model and non-parametric CART decision trees have been applied to financial distress prediction and compared with each other as well as the most popular approaches. This …


The Fraud Detection Triangle: A New Framework For Selecting Variables In Fraud Detection Research, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar, Sukanto Bhattacharya Oct 2015

The Fraud Detection Triangle: A New Framework For Selecting Variables In Fraud Detection Research, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar, Sukanto Bhattacharya

Adrian Gepp

The selection of explanatory (independent) variables is crucial to developing a fraud detection model. However, the selection process in prior financial statement fraud detection studies is not standardized. Furthermore, the categories of variables differ between studies. Consequently, the new Fraud Detection Triangle framework is proposed as an overall theory to assist in guiding the selection of variables for future fraud detection research. This new framework adapts and extends Cressey’s (1953) well-known and widely-used fraud triangle to make it more suited for use in fraud detection research. While the new framework was developed for financial statement fraud detection, it is more …


Financial Statement Fraud Detection Using Supervised Learning Methods (Ph.D. Dissertation), Adrian Gepp Dec 2014

Financial Statement Fraud Detection Using Supervised Learning Methods (Ph.D. Dissertation), Adrian Gepp

Adrian Gepp

No abstract provided.


Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar Dec 2014

Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar

Adrian Gepp

Financial distress and then the consequent failure of a business is usually an extremely costly and disruptive event. Statistical financial distress prediction models attempt to predict whether a business will experience financial distress in the future. Discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been the most popular approaches, but there is also a large number of alternative cutting – edge data mining techniques that can be used. In this paper, a semi-parametric Cox survival analysis model and non-parametric CART decision trees have been applied to financial distress prediction and compared with each other as well as the most popular approaches. This …


Business Failure Prediction Using Statistical Techniques: A Review, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar Jun 2013

Business Failure Prediction Using Statistical Techniques: A Review, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar

Adrian Gepp

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly in financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models has been recently emphasised by the extremely cosdy failure of high profile businesses in both Australia and overseas, such as HIH (Australia) and Enron (USA). Consequently, there has been a significant increase in interest in business failure prediction from both industry and academia. Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses are the most popular approaches, and there are also a large number of …


A Comparative Analysis Of Decision Trees Vis-À-Vis Other Computational Data Mining Techniques In Automotive Insurance Fraud Detection, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar, J Holton Wilson, Sukanto Bhattacharya Dec 2011

A Comparative Analysis Of Decision Trees Vis-À-Vis Other Computational Data Mining Techniques In Automotive Insurance Fraud Detection, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar, J Holton Wilson, Sukanto Bhattacharya

Adrian Gepp

No abstract provided.