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Bayesian And Related Methods: Techniques Based On Bayes' Theorem, Mehmet Vurkaç
Bayesian And Related Methods: Techniques Based On Bayes' Theorem, Mehmet Vurkaç
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
Bayes' theorem is a simple algebraic consequence of conditional probability. Yet, its consequences are critical to philosophy, society, and technology. Starting from its simple derivation, we will show how its interpretation in terms of base rates (priors) and class-conditional likelihoods illuminates everyday problems in medicine and law, and provides signal processing, communications, machine learning, model selection, and other applications of statistics with powerful classification and estimation tools. Next, we will briefly examine some of the ways in which this theorem can be adopted to include multiple attributes, contexts, hypotheses, and levels of risk. Methods derived from or related to Bayes’ …