Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Analysis Of The Optimal Mix Of Global Energy Resources And The Potential Need For Geoengineering Using The Ceagom Model, John George Anasis, M. A. K. Khalil, George G. Lendaris, Christopher L. Butenhoff, Randall Bluffstone

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Humanity faces tremendous challenges as a result of anthropogenic climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The mix of resources deployed in order to meet the energy needs of a growing global population is key to addressing the climate change issue. The goal of this research is to examine the optimal mix of energy resources that should be deployed to meet a forecast global energy demand while still meeting desired climate targets. The research includes the unique feature of examining the role that geoengineering can play in this optimization. The results show that some form of geoengineering is likely to …

Formalizing The Panarchy Adaptive Cycle With The Cusp Catastrophe, Martin Zwick, Joshua Hughes

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The panarchy adaptive cycle, a general model for change in natural and human systems, can be formalized by the cusp catastrophe of René Thom's topological theory. Both the adaptive cycle and the cusp catastrophe have been used to model ecological, economic, and social systems in which slow and small continuous changes in two control variables produce fast and large discontinuous changes in system behavior. The panarchy adaptive cycle, the more recent of the two models, has been used so far only for qualitative descriptions of typical dynamics of such systems. The cusp catastrophe, while also often employed qualitatively, is a …

Formalizing The Panarchy Adaptive Cycle With The Cusp Catastrophe [Presentation], Martin Zwick, Joshua Hughes

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The panarchy adaptive cycle, a general model for change in natural and human systems, can be formalized by the cusp catastrophe of René Thom's topological theory. Both the adaptive cycle and the cusp catastrophe have been used to model ecological, economic, and social systems in which slow and small continuous changes in two control variables produce fast and large discontinuous changes in system behavior. The panarchy adaptive cycle, the more recent of the two models, has been used so far only for qualitative descriptions of typical dynamics of such systems. The cusp catastrophe, while also often employed qualitatively, is a …

Ideas & Graphs, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A graph can specify the skeletal structure of an idea, onto which meaning can be added by interpreting the structure.

This paper considers graphs (but not hypergraphs) consisting of four nodes, and suggests meanings that can be associated with several different directed and undirected graphs.

Drawing on Bennett's "systematics," specifically on the Tetrad that systematics offers as a model of 'activity,' the analysis here shows that the Tetrad is versatile model of problem-solving, regulation and control, and other processes.

Mining Data On Traumatic Brain Injury With Reconstructability Analysis, Martin Zwick, Nancy Carney, Rosemary Nettleton

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper reports the analysis of data on traumatic brain injury using a probabilistic graphical modeling technique known as reconstructability analysis (RA). The analysis shows the flexibility, power, and comprehensibility of RA modeling, which is well-suited for mining biomedical data. One finding of the analysis is that education is a confounding variable for the Digit Symbol Test in discriminating the severity of concussion; another - and anomalous - finding is that previous head injury predicts improved performance on the Reaction Time test. This analysis was exploratory, so its findings require follow-on confirmatory tests of their generalizability.

Predicting Risk Of Adverse Outcomes In Knee Replacement Surgery With Reconstructability Analysis, Cecily Corrine Froemke, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) is a data mining method that searches for relations in data, especially non-linear and higher order relations. This study shows that RA can provide useful predictions of complications in knee replacement surgery.