Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Overview Of Elements And Relations: Aspects Of A Scientific Metaphysics, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A talk on my book, Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics. Book description:

This book develops the core proposition that systems theory is an attempt to construct an “exact and scientific metaphysics,” a system of general ideas central to science that can be expressed mathematically. Collectively, these ideas would constitute a non-reductionist “theory of everything” unlike what is being sought in physics. Inherently transdisciplinary, systems theory offers ideas and methods that are relevant to all of the sciences and also to professional fields such as systems engineering, public policy, business, and social work. To demonstrate the generality …

Systems Thinking Activities Used In K-12 For Up To Two Decades, Diana Fisher, Systems Thinking Association

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Infusing systems thinking activities in pre-college education (grades K-12) means updating precollege education so it includes a study of many systemic behavior patterns that are ubiquitous in the real world. Systems thinking tools include those using both paper and pencil and the computer and enhance learning in the classroom making it more student-centered, more active, and allowing students to analyze problems that have been heretofore beyond the scope of K-12 classrooms. Students in primary school have used behavior over time graphs to demonstrate dynamics described in story books, like the Lorax, and created stock-flow diagrams to describe what was needed …

Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …

System Dynamics Modeling For Traumatic Brain Injury: Mini-Review Of Applications, Erin S. Kenzie, Elle L. Parks, Nancy Carney, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a highly complex phenomenon involving a cascade of disruptions across biomechanical, neurochemical, neurological, cognitive, emotional, and social systems. Researchers and clinicians urgently need a rigorous conceptualization of brain injury that encompasses nonlinear and mutually causal relations among the factors involved, as well as sources of individual variation in recovery trajectories. System dynamics, an approach from systems science, has been used for decades in fields such as management and ecology to model nonlinear feedback dynamics in complex systems. In this mini-review, we summarize some recent uses of this approach to better understand acute injury mechanisms, recovery …

Reducing Opioid Use Disorder And Overdose Deaths In The United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis, Erin J. Stringfellow, Tse Yang Lim, Keith Humphreys, Catherine Digennero, Celia Stafford, Elizabeth Beaulieu, Jack Homer, Wayne Wakeland, Multiple Additional Authors

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; …

A New Agent-Based Model Offers Insight Into Population-Wide Adoption Of Prosocial Common-Pool Behavior, Garry Sotnik, Thaddeus Shannon, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

New theoretical agent-based model of population-wide adoption of prosocial common-pool behavior with four parameters (initial percent of adopters, pressure to change behavior, synergy from behavior, and population density); dynamics in behavior, movement, freeriding, and group composition and size; and emergence of multilevel group selection. Theoretical analysis of model’s dynamics identified six regions in model’s parameter space, in which pressure-synergy combinations lead to different outcomes: extinction, persistence, and full adoption. Simulation results verified the theoretical analysis and demonstrated that increases in density reduce number of pressure-synergy combinations leading to population-wide adoption; initial percent of contributors affects underlying behavior and final outcomes, …

Reconstructability Analysis: Discrete Multivariate Modeling, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

An introduction to Reconstructability Analysis for the Discrete Multivariate Modeling course and for other purposes.

Validation Of A Spatial Agent-Based Model For Taenia Solium Transmission (“Cystiagent”) Against A Large Prospective Trial Of Control Strategies In Northern Peru, Ian W. Pray, Francesco Pizzitutti, Gabrielle Bonnet, Eloy Gonzalez-Gustavson, Wayne Wakeland, William K. Pan, William E. Lambert, Armando E. Gonzalez, Hector H. Garcia, Seth E. O’Neal

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring …

Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) are both probabilistic graphical modeling methodologies used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. There are RA models that are statistically equivalent to BN models and there are also models unique to RA and models unique to BN. The primary goal of this paper is to unify these two methodologies via a lattice of structures that offers an expanded set of models to represent complex systems more accurately or more simply. The conceptualization of this lattice also offers a framework for additional innovations beyond what is presented here. Specifically, this paper integrates RA and …

Universal Biological Motions For Educational Robot Theatre And Games, Rajesh Venkatachalapathy, Martin Zwick, Adam Slowik, Kai Brooks, Mikhail Mayers, Roman Minko, Tyler Hull, Bliss Brass, Marek Perkowski

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Paper presents a concept that is new to robotics education and social robotics. It is based on theatrical games, in motions for social robots and animatronic robots. Presented here motion model is based on Drift Differential Model from biology and Fokker-Planck equations. This model is used in various areas of science to describe many types of motion. The model was successfully verified on various simulated mobile robots and a motion game of three robots called "Mouse and Cheese."

Using Information Theory To Extract Patterns From Categorical Raster Data, David Percy

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Information theory -- Reconstructability Analysis (RA) implemented in the Occam software -- was used to extract patterns from National Land Cover Data. The aim was to predict temporal change in evergreen forests from time-lagged and spatially adjacent states. The NLCD satellite data were preprocessed with Python and submitted to Occam for analysis, and Occam output was also explored with R-studio. The effectiveness of RA methodology for the analysis of this type of categorical space-time grid data was demonstrated.

Polymorphism And Polysemy In Images Of The Sefirot, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The resurgence of interest in Kabbalistic diagrams (Segol, Busi, Chajes) raises the question of how diagrams function in religious symbolism. This question can be approached via methods used in the graphical modeling of data. Specifically, graph theory lets one define a repertoire of candidate structures that can be applied not only to quantitative data, but also to symbols consisting of qualitative components. A graph is a set of nodes and links between nodes. What nodes and links are is unspecified in this definition. The Kabbalistic Ilan is – partially – a graph. The Sefirot are its nodes; the paths connecting …

Occam Manual, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Occam is a Discrete Multivariate Modeling (DMM) tool based on the methodology of Reconstructability Analysis (RA). Its typical usage is for analysis of problems involving large numbers of discrete variables. Models are developed which consist of one or more components, which are then evaluated for their fit and statistical significance. Occam can search the lattice of all possible models, or can do detailed analysis on a specific model.

In Variable-Based Modeling (VBM), model components are collections of variables. In State-Based Modeling (SBM), components identify one or more specific states or substates.

Occam provides a web-based interface, which …

Sensitivity Analysis Of An Agent-Based Simulation Model Using Reconstructability Analysis, Andey M. Nunes, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis, a methodology based on information theory and graph theory, was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model. The NetLogo BehaviorSpace tool was employed to do a full 2^k factorial parameter sweep on Uri Wilensky’s Wealth Distribution NetLogo model, to which a Gini-coefficient convergence condition was added. The analysis identified the most influential predictors (parameters and their interactions) of the Gini coefficient wealth inequality outcome. Implications of this type of analysis for building and testing agent-based simulation models are discussed.

Joint Lattice Of Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Network General Graphs, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper integrates the structures considered in Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and those considered in Bayesian Networks (BN) into a joint lattice of probabilistic graphical models. This integration and associated lattice visualizations are done in this paper for four variables, but the approach can easily be expanded to more variables. The work builds on the RA work of Klir (1985), Krippendorff (1986), and Zwick (2001), and the BN work of Pearl (1985, 1987, 1988, 2000), Verma (1990), Heckerman (1994), Chickering (1995), Andersson (1997), and others. The RA four variable lattice and the BN four variable lattice partially overlap: there are ten …

Reconstructability Analysis & Its Occam Implementation, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This talk will describe Reconstructability Analysis (RA), a probabilistic graphical modeling methodology deriving from the 1960s work of Ross Ashby and developed in the systems community in the 1980s and afterwards. RA, based on information theory and graph theory, resembles and partially overlaps Bayesian networks (BN) and log-linear techniques, but also has some unique capabilities. (A paper explaining the relationship between RA and BN will be given in this special session.) RA is designed for exploratory modeling although it can also be used for confirmatory hypothesis testing. In RA modeling, one either predicts some DV from a set of IVs …

Hypergraph Analysis Of Structure Models, Cliff A. Joslyn, Teresa D. Schmidt, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Theoretical discussion on the analysis of hypergraph networks; application of analysis methods to hypergraph networks derived by applying Reconstructability Analysis to health care data (the PhD dissertation work of Teresa Schmidt).

Addressing Parameter Uncertainty In Sd Models With Fit-To-History And Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Methods, Wayne Wakeland, Jack Homer

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We present a practical guide, including a step-by-step flowchart, for establishing uncertainty intervals for key model outcomes in the face of uncertain parameters. The process starts with Powell optimization (e.g., using VensimTM) to find a set of uncertain parameters (the “optimum” parameter set or OPS) that minimize the model fitness error relative to available reference behavior data. The optimization process also helps in refinement of assumed parameter uncertainty ranges. Next, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or conventional Monte Carlo (MC) randomization is used to create a sample of parameter sets that fit the reference behavior data nearly as well as …

A Computational Model For Recovery From Traumatic Brain Injury, Wayne Wakeland, Erin S. Kenzie

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A computational simulation model calculates estimated recovery trajectories following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Prior publications include a multi-scale conceptual framework for studying concussion, a systems-level causal loop diagram (CLD) and an analysis of key feedback processes. A set of first order ordinary differential equations and their associated parameters determines recovery trajectories. The model contains 15 state variables, 73 auxiliary variables, and 50 parameters describing TBI pathology in an aggregate fashion at the cellular, network, cognitive and social levels. There are 1200 feedback loops, which give rise to a variety of behavior modes, many of which are highly nonlinear. Exogenous parameters …

Improved Drought Resilience Through Continuous Water Service Monitoring And Specialized Institutions—A Longitudinal Analysis Of Water Service Delivery Across Motorized Boreholes In Northern Kenya, Nick Turman-Bryant, Corey L. Nagel, Lauren Stover, Christian Muragijimana, Evan A. Thomas

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increasing frequency and severity of drought is driving increased use of groundwater resources in arid regions of Northern Kenya, where approximately 2.5 million people depend on groundwater for personal use, livestock, and limited irrigation. As part of a broader effort to provide more sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene services in the region, we have collected data related to site functionality and use for approximately 120 motorized boreholes across five counties. Using a multilevel model to account for geospatial and temporal clustering, we found that borehole sites, which counties had identified as strategic assets during drought, ran on average about 1.31 …

Enhancing Value-Based Healthcare With Reconstructability Analysis: Predicting Cost Of Care In Total Hip Replacement, Cecily Corrine Froemke, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Legislative reforms aimed at slowing growth of US healthcare costs are focused on achieving greater value per dollar. To increase value healthcare providers must not only provide high quality care, but deliver this care at a sustainable cost. Predicting risks that may lead to poor outcomes and higher costs enable providers to augment decision making for optimizing patient care and inform the risk stratification necessary in emerging reimbursement models. Healthcare delivery systems are looking at their high volume service lines and identifying variation in cost and outcomes in order to determine the patient factors that are driving this variation and …

Introduction To Reconstructability Analysis, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This talk will introduce Reconstructability Analysis (RA), a data modeling methodology deriving from the 1960s work of Ross Ashby and developed in the systems community in the 1980s and afterwards. RA, based on information theory and graph theory, is a member of the family of methods known as ‘graphical models,’ which also include Bayesian networks and log-linear techniques. It is designed for exploratory modeling, although it can also be used for confirmatory hypothesis testing. RA can discover high ordinality and nonlinear interactions that are not hypothesized in advance. Its conceptual framework illuminates the relationships between wholes and parts, a subject …

Preliminary Results Of Bayesian Networks And Reconstructability Analysis Applied To The Electric Grid, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) is an analytical approach developed in the systems community that combines graph theory and information theory. Graph theory provides the structure of relations (model of the data) between variables and information theory characterizes the strength and the nature of the relations. RA has three primary approaches to model data: variable based (VB) models without loops (acyclic graphs), VB models with loops (cyclic graphs) and state-based models (nearly always cyclic, individual states specifying model constraints). These models can either be directed or neutral. Directed models focus on a single response variable whereas neutral models focus on all relations …

Beyond Spatial Autocorrelation: A Novel Approach Using Reconstructability Analysis, David Percy, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Raster data are digital representations of spatial phenomena that are organized into rows and columns that typically have the same dimensions in each direction. They are used to represent image data at any scale. Common raster data are medical images, satellite data, and photos generated by modern smartphones.
Satellites capture reflectance data in specific bands of wavelength that correspond to red, green, blue, and often some infrared and thermal bands. These composite vectors can then be classified into actual land use categories such as forest or water using automated techniques. These classifications are verified on the ground using hand-held sensors. …

Reconstructability & Dynamics Of Elementary Cellular Automata, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a method to determine whether a multivariate relation, defined set- or information-theoretically, is decomposable with or without loss into lower ordinality relations. Set-theoretic RA (SRA) is used to characterize the mappings of elementary cellular automata. The decomposition possible for each mapping w/o loss is a better predictor than the λ parameter (Walker & Ashby, Langton) of chaos, & non-decomposable mappings tend to produce chaos. SRA yields not only the simplest lossless structure but also a vector of losses for all structures, indexed by parameter τ. These losses are analogous to transmissions in information-theoretic RA (IRA). IRA …

Statistical Analysis Of Network Change, Teresa D. Schmidt, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Networks are rarely subjected to hypothesis tests for difference, but when they are inferred from datasets of independent observations statistical testing is feasible. To demonstrate, a healthcare provider network is tested for significant change after an intervention using Medicaid claims data. First, the network is inferred for each time period with (1) partial least squares (PLS) regression and (2) reconstructability analysis (RA). Second, network distance (i.e., change between time periods) is measured as the mean absolute difference in (1) coefficient matrices for PLS and (2) calculated probability distributions for RA. Third, the network distance is compared against a reference distribution …

Exploratory Reconstructability Analysis Of Accident Tbi Data, Martin Zwick, Nancy Ann Carney, Rosemary Nettleton

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are …

Ideas And Graphs: The Tetrad Of Activity, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A graph can specify the skeletal structure of an idea, onto which meaning can be added by interpreting the structure. This paper considers several directed and undirected graphs consisting of four nodes, and suggests different meanings that can be associated with these different structures. Drawing on John G. Bennett’s “systematics,” specifically on the Tetrad that systematics offers as a model of “activity,” the analysis formalizes and augments the systematics account and shows that the Tetrad is a versatile model of problem-solving, regulation and control, and other processes. Discussion is extended to include hypergraphs, in which links can relate more than …

An Analysis Of The Optimal Mix Of Global Energy Resources And The Potential Need For Geoengineering Using The Ceagom Model, John George Anasis, M. A. K. Khalil, George G. Lendaris, Christopher L. Butenhoff, Randall Bluffstone

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Humanity faces tremendous challenges as a result of anthropogenic climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The mix of resources deployed in order to meet the energy needs of a growing global population is key to addressing the climate change issue. The goal of this research is to examine the optimal mix of energy resources that should be deployed to meet a forecast global energy demand while still meeting desired climate targets. The research includes the unique feature of examining the role that geoengineering can play in this optimization. The results show that some form of geoengineering is likely to …

Formalizing The Panarchy Adaptive Cycle With The Cusp Catastrophe, Martin Zwick, Joshua Hughes

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The panarchy adaptive cycle, a general model for change in natural and human systems, can be formalized by the cusp catastrophe of René Thom's topological theory. Both the adaptive cycle and the cusp catastrophe have been used to model ecological, economic, and social systems in which slow and small continuous changes in two control variables produce fast and large discontinuous changes in system behavior. The panarchy adaptive cycle, the more recent of the two models, has been used so far only for qualitative descriptions of typical dynamics of such systems. The cusp catastrophe, while also often employed qualitatively, is a …