Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

State Antifragility: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Understanding State Behavior, Rebecca Lee Law

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding what makes states antifragile and why this matters by constructing a parsimonious, first of its kind agent-based model. The model focuses on the key elements of state antifragility that reside along a spectrum of fragility and transverse bidirectionally from fragile to resilient to antifragile given a certain set of environmental conditions.

First coined by Nicholas Nassim Taleb and applied to economics, antifragility is a nascent concept. In 2015, Nassim Taleb and Gregory Treverton’s article in Foreign Affairs outlined five characteristics of state antifragility. This project aims to advance the study of anti-fragility …

Simulation For Cybersecurity: State Of The Art And Future Directions, Hamdi Kavak, Jose J. Padilla, Daniele Vernon-Bido, Saikou Y. Diallo, Ross Gore, Sachin Shetty

VMASC Publications

In this article, we provide an introduction to simulation for cybersecurity and focus on three themes: (1) an overview of the cybersecurity domain; (2) a summary of notable simulation research efforts for cybersecurity; and (3) a proposed way forward on how simulations could broaden cybersecurity efforts. The overview of cybersecurity provides readers with a foundational perspective of cybersecurity in the light of targets, threats, and preventive measures. The simulation research section details the current role that simulation plays in cybersecurity, which mainly falls on representative environment building; test, evaluate, and explore; training and exercises; risk analysis and assessment; and humans …

A Framework For Executable Systems Modeling, Matthew Amissah

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Systems Modeling Language (SysML), like its parent language, the Unified Modeling Language (UML), consists of a number of independently derived model languages (i.e. state charts, activity models etc.) which have been co-opted into a single modeling framework. This, together with the lack of an overarching meta-model that supports uniform semantics across the various diagram types, has resulted in a large unwieldy and informal language schema. Additionally, SysML does not offer a built in framework for managing time and the scheduling of time based events in a simulation.

In response to these challenges, a number of auxiliary standards have been offered …

Selective Mutation Accumulation: A Computational Model Of The Paternal Age Effect, Eoin C. Whelan, Alexander C. Nwala, Christopher Osgood, Stephan Olariu

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Motivation: As the mean age of parenthood grows, the effect of parental age on genetic disease and child health becomes ever more important. A number of autosomal dominant disorders show a dramatic paternal age effect due to selfish mutations: substitutions that grant spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) a selective advantage in the testes of the father, but have a deleterious effect in offspring. In this paper we present a computational technique to model the SSC niche in order to examine the phenomenon and draw conclusions across different genes and disorders.

Results: We used a Markov chain to model the probabilities of …

Meshless Mechanics And Point-Based Visualization Methods For Surgical Simulations, Rifat Aras

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Computer-based modeling and simulation practices have become an integral part of the medical education field. For surgical simulation applications, realistic constitutive modeling of soft tissue is considered to be one of the most challenging aspects of the problem, because biomechanical soft-tissue models need to reflect the correct elastic response, have to be efficient in order to run at interactive simulation rates, and be able to support operations such as cuts and sutures.

Mesh-based solutions, where the connections between the individual degrees of freedom (DoF) are defined explicitly, have been the traditional choice to approach these problems. However, when the problem …

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Predictive Framework For Artificial Neural Network Committee Modeling And Simulation, Michael S. Goodrich

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A logical inference method of properly weighting the outputs of an Artificial Neural Network Committee for predictive purposes using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian probability is proposed and demonstrated on machine learning data for non-linear regression, binary classification, and 1-of-k classification. Both deterministic and stochastic models are constructed to model the properties of the data. Prediction strategies are compared based on formal Bayesian predictive distribution modeling of the network committee output data and a stochastic estimation method based on the subtraction of determinism from the given data to achieve a stochastic residual using cross validation. Performance for Bayesian …

Enhancing Understanding Of Discrete Event Simulation Models Through Analysis, Kara Ann Olson

Computer Science Theses & Dissertations

Simulation is used increasingly throughout research, development, and planning for many purposes. While model output is often the primary interest, insights gained through the simulation process can also be valuable. Insights can come from building and validating the model as well as analyzing its behaviors and output; however, much that could be informative may not be easily discernible through these existing traditional approaches, particularly as models continue to increase in complexity.

This research extends current work in model analysis and program understanding to assist modelers in obtaining more insight into their models and the systems they represent. A primary technique …

Simulation Visualization Rhetoric And It's Practical Implications, D'An Knowles Ball, Andrew J. Collins

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Modeling and simulation has moved far beyond simple data representation into the world of visual communication over the past 15 years; ultimately, the acceptance of M&S within mainstream science and society will depend on the results that are produced visually. A simulation’s function is of primary importance to its end result, but it cannot be denied that the discipline of M&S now prizes fancy graphics to communicate. Rhetorical methodological decisions have the greatest impact on the end user, and considerations that bring visual rhetoric to modeling and simulation should be examined as a necessity to application. This paper will expose …

Incorporating Physical Fitness Through Rushing Can Significantly Affect Tactical Infantry Simulation Results, Elaine Marie Smith Blount

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Physical fitness is accepted as an influence on the outcome on the battlefield; yet, research indicates that it has not been incorporated into tactical infantry simulations. Including physical capabilities may have a significant impact upon the results of a tactical simulation. Several battlefield tasks were reviewed, and rushing was selected to implement in tactical infantry simulations. A preliminary spreadsheet model was created that indicated rushing velocity would impact a tactical simulation. Two tactical infantry simulations were created: a helicopter extraction scenario where 13 soldiers rushed to extraction site while two enemies were shooting and a rushing scenario that consisted of …

On The Role Of Assertions For Conceptual Modeling As Enablers Of Composable Simulation Solutions, Robert Dennis King

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research provides a much needed systematic review of the roles that assertions play in model composability and simulation interoperability. In doing so, this research contributes a partial solution to one of the problems of model composability and simulation interoperability—namely, why do simulation systems fail to achieve the maximum level of interoperability possible? It demonstrates the importance of the assertions that are made during model development and simulation implementation, particularly as they reflect the unique viewpoint of each developer or user. It hypothesizes that it is possible to detect composability conflicts by means of a four-step process developed by the …

Jsb Composability And Web Services Interoperability Via Extensible Modeling & Simulation Framework (Xmsf), Model Driven Architecture (Mda), Component Repositories, And Web-Based Visualization, Don Brutzman, Andreas Tolk

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

"Study Report prepared for the U. S. Air Force, Joint Synthetic Battlespace Analysis of Technical Approaches (ATA) Studies & Prototyping"

Overview: This paper summarizes research work conducted by organizations concerned with interoperable distributed information technology (IT) applications, in particular the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and Old Dominion University (ODU). Although the application focus is distributed modeling & simulation (M&S) the results and findings are in general easily applicable to other distributed concepts as well, in particular the support of operations by M&S applications, such as distributed mission operations. The core idea of this work is to show the necessity of …