Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

On Efficacy And Effectiveness Of Vaccines: A Mathematical Approach Based On Conditional Probability With Applications To The Covid-19 Context, Flavius Guias

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

This paper presents a mathematically formalized approach which points out the relation between efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines. The first term denotes the relative degree of protection in clinical trials or under ideal conditions, while the latter is based on observed real-life data. We define the efficacy by a similar formula to the effectiveness, but the probabilities involved in the relative risk are conditional with respect to the exposure to the virus. If exposure and vaccination status are independent, the two quantities are equal. Otherwise, the observed value of the effectiveness is a biased one, as it could be seen …