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The Development And Evaluation Of The Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification Regression Model (Atcirm), Bruno Platero Huarcaya, Lexi Cruz

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Operational track forecasts of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have been improved substantially in recent years and nowadays are sufficiently accurate. However, intensity forecasts have not shown similar improvements, especially for rapidly intensifying storms. The improvement of intensity forecast accuracy can help authorities in risk management and decision making to prevent loss of life and property. The purpose of our project is to develop a statistical linear regression model that provides better predictions for TC intensification over the ocean. Here, different predictor variables are studied, and 2011-2017 Atlantic basin storms are investigated. The final set of predictor variables selected for the model …