Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

Halogen Activation Via Interactions With Environmental Ice And Snow In The Polar Lower Troposphere And Other Regions, J. P. D. Abbatt, J. L. Thomas, K. Abrahamsson, Chris Boxe, A. Granfors, A. E. Jones, M. D. King, A. Saiz-Lopez, P. B. Shepson, J. Sodeau, D. W. Toohey, C. Toubin, R. Von Glasow, S. N. Wren, X. Yang

Publications and Research

The role of ice in the formation of chemically active halogens in the environment requires a full understanding because of its role in atmospheric chemistry, including controlling the regional atmospheric oxidizing capacity in specific situations. In particular, ice and snow are important for facilitating multiphase oxidative chemistry and as media upon which marine algae live. This paper reviews the nature of environmental ice substrates that participate in halogen chemistry, describes the reactions that occur on such substrates, presents the field evidence for ice-mediated halogen activation, summarizes our best understanding of ice-halogen activation mechanisms, and describes the current state of modeling …

Validation Of Noaa-Interactive Multisensor Snow And Ice Mapping System (Ims) By Comparison With Ground-Based Measurements Over Continental United States, Christine Chen, Tarendra Lakhankar, Peter Romanov, Sean Helfrich, Al Powell, Reza Khanbilvardi

Publications and Research

In this study, daily maps of snow cover distribution and sea ice extent produced by NOAA’s interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system (IMS) were validated using in situ snow depth data from observing stations obtained from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for calendar years 2006 to 2010. IMS provides daily maps of snow and sea ice extent within the Northern Hemisphere using data from combination of geostationary and polar orbiting satellites in visible, infrared and microwave spectrums. Statistical correspondence between the IMS and in situ point measurements has been evaluated assuming that ground measurements are discrete and continuously …

Estimation Of Phosphorus Bioavailability In The Water Column Of The Bronx River, New York, Jingyu Wang, Hari K. Pant

Publications and Research

Phosphorus (P) is a primary limiting nutrient in rivers and streams, and excessive P results in eutrophication of freshwater systems, in turn, excessive algal growth/toxic algal blooms, oxygen depletion, and water quality degradation. This study analyzed P pool, and hydrolysis of organic P (OP) by native phosphatases (NPase) in the water samples collected in the Bronx River. The soluble reactive P (SRP) of most of the sites’ water collected in 2006 and 2007 were higher (average 67 µg·L–1 and 68 µg·L–1, respectively) than the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) standard of 15 µg·L–1. The SRP% (SRP/TP%) average was 27% in …

Empirical Mapping Of Suitability To Dengue Fever In Mexico Using Species Distribution Modeling, Elia Machado

Publications and Research

Dengue is considered the most important vector borne virus disease worldwide placing some 2.5 billion people at risk globally. Despite the public health concern about dengue fever, spatially explicit suitability assessments for this disease are limited due to data restrictions and the challenges posed by the complexity of the interactions among its risk factors, which involve social, economic and ecological processes.

This paper demonstrates an empirical approach to identify suitable areas for dengue fever using species distribution modeling, and evaluates the relative contribution of climatic and socio-economic factors as dengue fever suitability determinants. Several models showing the potential distribution of …

Jennings Studies Environmental Pollutants, Aldemaro Romero Jr.

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.

Minchin Studies, Teaches Conservation Issues, Aldemaro Romero Jr.

Publications and Research

No abstract provided.