Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi

CCPO Publications

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the …

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling And Paleohurricane Records To Assess Storm Surge Risk, Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Christine Y. Blackshaw, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori, Elizabeth Wallace, Kerry Emanuel, Jeffrey P. Donnelly

OES Faculty Publications

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological-hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling …

Demographics And Risk Of Isolation Due To Sea Level Rise In The United States, Kelsea Best, Qian He, Allison C. Reilly, Deb A. Niemeier, Mitchell Anderson, Tom Logan

School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship

Within coastal communities, sea level rise (SLR) will result in widespread intermittent flooding and long-term inundation. Inundation effects will be evident, but isolation that arises from the loss of accessibility to critical services due to inundation of transportation networks may be less obvious. We examine who is most at risk of isolation due to SLR, which can inform community adaptation plans and help ensure that existing social vulnerabilities are not exacerbated. Combining socio-demographic data with an isolation metric, we identify social and economic disparities in risk of isolation under different SLR scenarios (1-10 ft) for the coastal U.S. We show …

Synthesis Of Shoreline, Sea Level Rise, And Marsh Migration Data For Wetland Restoration Targeting Final Report, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Data

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Preparing Students To Solve Challenges Related To A Changing Climate, Mujde Erten-Unal, Dalya Ismael, Carol L. Considine

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

The National Academy of Engineering has identified restoring and improving urban infrastructure as one of the grand challenges for engineering. Urban coastal communities are particularly at risk as their infrastructure is experiencing frequent inundation related to climate change impacts. Rising sea levels in coastal communities create backflow into stormwater systems and deplete capacity. In addition, the increase in rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency related to climate change create additional challenges for aging infrastructure systems. To prepare students to solve these challenges, the Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) and Civil Engineering Technology (CET) programs at Old Dominion University (ODU) are introducing …

Anticipating And Adapting To The Impacts Of Climate Change On Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities, Lynn Donelson Wright, Thomas Allen, Kiki Caruson, Alain Hénaff, Jaia Syvitski

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Scholarcy Abstract] The rates of sea level rise in coastal Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay significantly exceed the global rate and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation adds to the annual rates.

The original vision was to enhance future resilience of Low-Elevation Coastal Zone communities by advancing understandings and approaches to better anticipate and mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce deleterious impacts to coastal residents and industries. The goal of the thematic Research Topic has been to assemble interdisciplinary papers that contribute to better understanding of the couplings among physical, ecological, socioeconomic, management and policy …

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr⁻¹ since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …

Climate Change And The Specter Of Statelessness, Mark P. Nevitt

Faculty Articles

What happens when climate change extinguishes entire nations? Neither international nor environmental law has provided a satisfactory answer to this weighty question. Climate change-induced flooding, storm surge, and sea level rise threaten the territorial integrity and habitability of several small island developing states, raising the specter of statelessness. We know that climate catastrophe is coming, but we have failed to take the necessary steps to safeguard several developing nations. This Article argues that innovative legal and policy solutions are needed today to prevent nation extinction tomorrow. I focus on two potential international governance solutions: the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate …

Five Years Measuring The Muck: Evaluating Interannual Variability Of Nutrient Loads From Tidal Flooding, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, J. Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

OES Faculty Publications

Due to sea level rise, tidal flooding is now common in low-lying coastal systems around the world. Yet, the contribution of tidal flooding to non-point source nutrient loads and their impact on the quality of adjacent waters remains poorly constrained. Here, we quantified dissolved nutrient loading and Enterococcus abundance during annual autumnal king tides (i.e., perigean spring tides), between 2017 and 2021, in a sub-watershed of the lower Chesapeake Bay. To calculate nutrient loading from tidal flooding, we used geospatial inundation depths from a street-level hydrodynamic model to estimate floodwater volumes during each of the five sampling events and the …

Increasing Use Of Natural And Nature-Based Features To Build Resilience To Storm-Driven Flooding, Final Report, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman, Karen Duhring, Carl Hershner

Reports

In coastal Virginia today, local governments are dealing with recurrent flooding driven by coastal storms, exacerbated by rising sea level and increased frequency of intense rain events. At the same time, they are confronted with increasing demands on limited resources to address issues coastal flooding in concert with water quality, wetlands management, shoreline erosion, habitat, and community needs such as infrastructure, flood insurance and open space. One solution is to maximize the protection of existing and implement new natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) to capitalize on the provision of multiple benefits to address many of these coastal issues.

There are …

Sea Level Rise Estimation On The Pacific Coast From Southern California To Vancouver Island, Xiaoxing He, Jean-Philippe Montillet, Rui Fernandes, Timothy I. Melbourne, Weiping Jiang, Zhengkai Huang

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Previous studies have estimated the sea level rise (SLR) at various locations on the west coast of the USA and Vancouver Island in Canada. Here, we construct an entire SLR profile from Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest to San Diego in Southern California. First, we process global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements at 405 stations blanketing the whole coast to generate a profile of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias century-long tide gauge (TG) measurements recording relative SLR (RSLR). We are then able to estimate the absolute SLR (ASLR) by correcting the SLR with the VLM. Our study …

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Revisiting 228Th As A Tool For Determining Sedimentation And Mass Accumulation Rates, Joseph J. Tamborski, Pinghe Cai, Meagan Eagle, Paul Henderson, Matthew A. Charette

OES Faculty Publications

The use of ²²⁸Th has seen limited application for determining sedimentation and mass accumulation rates in coastal and marine environments. Recent analytical advances have enabled rapid, precise measurements of particle-bound ²²⁸Th using a radium delayed coincidence counting system (RaDeCC). Herein we review the ²²⁸Th cycle in the marine environment and revisit the historical use of ²²⁸Th as a tracer for determining sediment vertical accretion and mass accumulation rates in light of new measurement techniques. Case studies comparing accumulation rates from ²²⁸Th and ²¹⁰Pb are presented for a micro-tidal salt marsh and a marginal sea …

Dynamic Modeling Of Inland Flooding And Storm Surge On Coastal Cities Under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts In Norfolk, Virginia Usa As A Case Study, Yawen Shen, Navid Tahvildari, Mohamed M. Morsy, Chris Huxley, T. Donna Chen, Jonathan Lee Goodall

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable …

Editorial: Coastal Flooding: Modeling, Monitoring, And Protection Systems, Valentina Prigiobbe, Clint Dawson, Yao Hu, Hatim O. Sharif, Navid Tahvildari

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Coastal flooding has received significant attention in recent years due to future sea-level rise (SLR) projections and intensification of precipitation, which will exacerbate frequent flooding, coastal erosion, and eventually create permanently inundated low-elevation land. Coastal governments will be forced to implement measures to manage risk on the population and infrastructure and build protection systems to mitigate or adapt to the negative impacts of flooding. Research in this area is required to establish holistic frameworks for timely and accurate flooding forecast and design of protection systems.

Vims Marsh Migration Final Report + Metadata Sheets, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Reports

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Virginia Beach Flood Protection Program Bond Referendum Analysis, Robert Mcnab, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Afi Anuar, Jessica Whitehead

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

[First paragraph of the Executive Summary]

On November 2, 2021, voters in the City of Virginia Beach will vote on a referendum that determines whether or not the City Council should increase real estate taxes to fund a Flood Protection Program. The proposal accelerates the construction of six flood mitigation projects already in the Virginia Beach Capital Improvement Plan by 3 years, and funds design and construction of 15 additional projects that would also be completed by 2031. This report, jointly produced by Old Dominion University’s Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience (ICAR) and the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis …

Effects Of Tidal Flooding On Estuarine Biogeochemistry: Quantifying Flood-Driven Nitrogen Inputs In An Urban, Lower Chesapeake Bay Sub-Tributary, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, Jon Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

VIMS Articles

Sea level rise has increased the frequency of tidal flooding even without accompanying precipitation in many coastal areas worldwide. As the tide rises, inundates the landscape, and then recedes, it can transport organic and inorganic matter between terrestrial systems and adjacent aquatic environments. However, the chemical and biological effects of tidal flooding on urban estuarine systems remain poorly constrained. Here, we provide the first extensive quantification of floodwater nutrient concentrations during a tidal flooding event and estimate the nitrogen (N) loading to the Lafayette River, an urban tidal sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay (USA). To enable the scale of …

Impact Assessment And Management Challenges Of Key Rural Human Health Infrastructure Under Sea Level Rise, Molly Mitchell, Robert Isdell, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson

VIMS Articles

Accelerating sea level rise in Virginia, United States, will significantly increase the flooding threat to low-lying roads, residences, and critical infrastructure as well as raise the water table, allowing saltwater intrusion into well water and threatening the function of septic fields. Although most of the adaptation work in Virginia has focused on urban economic centers, the majority of the coastline is rural and faces different threats and opportunities to address them compared to urban areas due to their reduced economic assets and their reliance on private infrastructure. In this case study, we assess the potential for geospatially quantifying impact to …

End-To-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects Of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration On Living Resources Facing Climate Change, Kim De Mutsert, Kristy A. Lewis, Eric D. White, Joe Buszowski

Faculty Publications

Coastal erosion and wetland loss are affecting Louisiana to such an extent that the loss of land between 1932 and 2016 was close to 5,000 km². To mitigate this decline, coastal protection and restoration projects are being planned and implemented by the State of Louisiana, United States. The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP) is an adaptive management approach that provides a suite of projects that are predicted to build or maintain land and protect coastal communities. Restoring the coast with this 50-year large-scale restoration and risk reduction plan has the potential to change the biomass and distribution of …

Developing An Institutional Arrangement For A Whole-Of-Government And Whole-Of-Community Approach To Regional Adaptation To Sea Level Rise: The Hampton Roads Pilot Project, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, J. Gail Nicula, Burton St. John Iii, Meagan M. Jordan, Michelle Covi, Carol Considine, Marina Saitgalina, Joshua Behr

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) requires coordination among local, state, and federal entities and collaboration across governments, nonprofits, businesses, and residents. This coordination and collaboration are reflected in institutional arrangements associated with a whole-of-government and whole-of-community approach to regional adaptation. This study analyzes the development of an interlocal agreement (ILA), the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness and Resilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project (the Pilot Project), as an example of such an arrangement. This study assesses how factors throughout three phases of ILA development (initiation, implementation, and execution) influence outcomes and effectiveness. Drawing upon participant observation, document analysis, survey …

Migration Of The Tidal Marsh Range Under Sea Level Rise For Coastal Virginia, With Land Cover Data, Julie Herman, Molly Mitchell

Data

The layers in this geodatabase were intended to represent the land that is encompassed by the average tidal range as sea level rises in the Virginia coastal region, including Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, the Atlantic Ocean side of the Eastern Shore, and Virginia Beach. The data layers in this geodatabase represent each two foot range of elevation incremented by 0.5 ft (e.g. 0-2 ft, 0.5-2.5 ft, 1-3 ft, etc.) with the current land cover that exists in that range.

ArcGIS metadata is included in the geodatabase.

Further details are provided in the Geodatabase Information file located from the download tab.

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, Thomas Allen, Joshua Behr, Anamaria Bukvic, Ryan S.D. Calder, Kiki Caruson, Charles Connor, Christopher D'Elia, David Dismukes, Robin Ersing, Rima Franklin, Jesse Goldstein, Jonathon Goodall, Scott Hemmerling, Jennifer Irish, Steven Lazarus, Derek Loftis, Mark Luther, Leigh Mccallister, Karen Mcglathery, Molly Mitchell, William Moore, Charles Reid Nichols, Karinna Nunez, Matthew Reidenbach, Julie Shortridge, Robert Weisberg, Robert Weiss, Lynn Donelson Wright, Meng Xia, Kehui Xu, Donald Young, Gary Zarillo, Julie C. Zinnert

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …

Effects Of Tidal Flooding On Estuarine Biogeochemistry: Quantifying Flood-Driven Nitrogen Inputs In An Urban, Lower Chesapeake Bay Sub-Tributary, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, J. Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

OES Faculty Publications

Sea level rise has increased the frequency of tidal flooding even without accompanying precipitation in many coastal areas worldwide. As the tide rises, inundates the landscape, and then recedes, it can transport organic and inorganic matter between terrestrial systems and adjacent aquatic environments. However, the chemical and biological effects of tidal flooding on urban estuarine systems remain poorly constrained. Here, we provide the first extensive quantification of floodwater nutrient concentrations during a tidal flooding event and estimate the nitrogen (N) loading to the Lafayette River, an urban tidal sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay (USA). To enable the scale of …

The Role Of Traditional Knowledge In Coastal Adaptation Priorities: The Pamunkey Indian Reservation, Nicole S. Hutton, Thomas R. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Coastal reservations are increasingly vulnerable to hazards exacerbated by climate change. Resources for restoration projects are limited. Storm surge, storms, tidal flooding, and erosion endanger artifacts and limit livelihoods of tribes in coastal Virginia. GIS offers a platform to increase communication between scientists, planners, and indigenous groups. The Pamunkey Indian Tribe engaged in a participatory mapping exercise to assess the role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in coastal management decision-making and its capacity to address flooding. Priorities and strategies were spatially referenced using maps of potential sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080, input into a resilience matrix to …

Sea Level Rise Impact Assessment Tool – A Web-Based Application For Community Resilience In Coral Gables, Florida, Levente Juhasz, Hartwig H. Hochmair, Sheyla Aguilar De Santana, Zhaohui J. Fu

GIS Center

No abstract provided.

On Environmental, Climate Change & National Security Law, Mark P. Nevitt

All Faculty Scholarship

This Article offers a new way to think about climate change. Two new climate change assessments — the 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel’s Special Report on Climate Change — prominently highlight climate change’s multifaceted national security risks. Indeed, not only is climate change a “super wicked” environmental problem, it also accelerates existing national security threats, acting as both a “threat accelerant” and “catalyst for conflict.” Further, climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events while threatening nations’ territorial integrity and sovereignty through rising sea levels. It causes both internal displacement …

Farm Resiliency Education For At-Risk Coastal Areas In The Chesapeake Bay, Kristen Saacke Blunk, Kristen Hughes Evans, Jennifer Miller Herzog, Julie Herman, Carl Hershner, Donna Bilkovic, Kirk J. Havens

Reports

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) in collaboration with its partners, the Land Trust Alliance, Sustainable Chesapeake, and The Nature Conservancy, explored and refined questions critical for advising and guiding landowners who farm within coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, and ultimately, loss of arable cropland in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. While the questions posed are those that agricultural experts across the coastal zones are struggling with, this effort focused on identifying the current state of the science and informational gaps; building current, best professional guidance for landowner conservation program choices; and developing …

Future Sea Level And Recurrent Flooding Risk For Coastal Virginia, George Mcleod, Tom Allen, Emily Steinhilber, Sheila Hutt, Manuel Solano, Kellie Burdick

Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR): Reports

From Executive Summary:

The report presents analysis of the best available existing data on coastal land elevation, sea level rise projections, vertical land motion (subsidence), and building and transportation assets. Sea level rise (SLR) projections are analyzed as Relative SLR (RSLR), combining the effects of vertical water rise (or “eustatic” change) with regional trends in vertical land motion, or subsidence. The study made use of available Commonwealth LiDAR elevation data, buildings, and roads as well as several sources of federal data, including sea level trends, tidal flooding and datums, and peer-reviewed and government reports. Maps of potential future inundation provided …

Fostering University Collaboration And Building Capacity To Respond To Coastal Resilience Challenges In Virginia: Findings From The Rotating Resilience Roundtables Workshop Spring 2019, Wie Yusuf, Michelle Covi, Anamaria Bukvic, Tom Allen, Taiwo Oguntuyo

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

[from Background and Overview]

Communities in coastal Virginia, particularly in the urban region of Hampton Roads and the rural Eastern Shore peninsula, are experiencing the impacts of climate change as part of everyday life. Among the most apparent impacts are sea level rise and associated flooding, but increasingly residents of the region are observing changing ecosystems, health impacts and complex social challenges are made more difficult. The region is experiencing the fastest rate of relative sea level rise on the U.S. east coast due to interactions between ocean currents, global sea level rise, high-water tables and ground subsidence (Adapt Virginia …